Reuters and Zogby have teamed up to look at Senate races.
The Reuters/Zogby surveys were conducted from Sept. 25-Oct. 2, 2006, and included at least 600 live telephone interviews with likely voters in 10 states. The margin of error in each of the polls is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The latest Virginia poll shows incumbent Republican George Allen leading Democratic challenger Jim Webb 48% to 37%, with 13% undecided.
In some of the other races:
- CT – Lieberman (I) leads Lamont (D) 51% to 40%
- MD – Cardin (D) leads Steele (R) 45% to 37%
- NJ – Menendez (D) leads Kean (R) 45% to 35%
- TN – Ford (D) and Coker (R) tied at 40% each
Too much wild variability in the Zogby numbers to think they’re stable, in my opinion. Although I was probably happy to see a Webb 50, Allen 43 number a month ago from the same poll, no other poll in the VA race shows an 18-point post macaca swing to Allen.
This is an outlier.
However, Allen is still in the 44-48 range in most polls. If he stays under 48%, I’m happy.
Poll obsession—bad.
Posted by Doug in Mount Vernon | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 12:38 pmGrassroots activity–good!
Posted by Doug in Mount Vernon | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 12:38 pmHey, Doug in Mount Vernon. Eileen is Hampton Roads here! We got grassroots here. Check out http://www.webbgrassrootshamptonroads.com. Go Terps! (Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
Posted by eileen | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 1:33 pmDoug – Trouble with your logic is that this is not the same poll. The poll that had Webb +7 (Zogby interactive), now has Allen +5.6. This is a completely different poll with a different methodology that just happens to be from the same outfit. This is a live telephone and is the most credible type of poll. This is the first of these polls and cannot be compared to any previous Zogby poll.
Posted by Virginian | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 1:53 pmWhen I think there is a chance that Allen might be re-elected, I think “those good ole boys really have each other’s backs.” At this point, knowing what we know now: There is no way that voting for Allen doesn’t reflect a deep-seated bigotry on the side of the voter. Anyone who votes for Allen should feel deeply ashamed. I don’t know how I will be able to express the depth of my disappointment if Allen gets re-elected.
Posted by Jeremy | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 5:21 pmI would like to see the crosstabs before making any serious comments on this poll. However, I would have to agree that the change in methodology makes comparisons to previous Zogby polls impossible.
One thing this poll has compared to the other recent live telephone polls: a higher percentage of undecideds. That’s why I’d like to look at the crosstabs.
Posted by vjp | Thursday, October 5, 2006, 6:31 pm