Anyway… the President is the CHIEF EXECUTIVE.. there is no way that Americans will easily put a black man in that post no matter WHAT they said about Colin Powell back in 1992 or 1996 and no matter what they say about Obama now. White women ARE number 2 because even the most sexist white man can be the father of a white daughter and handing power to her merely means deciding that BOTH his daughter AND his son can inherit his power and wealth and not just his son. Whereas handing power to the stranger’s son down the street is out of the question… when faced with the possibility that the blood of whites and blacks may be mixed enough to suggest interrelation… i.e. the black man as illegitimate son .. you get OBAMA.. whose father is unquestionably a NON African-American.. No descendant of slaves shall hold THIS office because the symbolism of that is too loaded and not something we’ll see in this generation.

Black women can be trusted by the white power structure because the same thing that makes them “lowly” as women also makes them trustworthy. Like Oprah… like Condi… like Della Reese on Touched By An Angel.. the black woman doesn’t compete with 1,2, or 3 on any level a white man defines. And for those of us who don’t make the distinction between white male and white female interests because ultimately the money “stays in the family.. even when that family gets a divorce” non competition IS the coin of the realm and so while black men are theoretical no. 2′s and they got the vote.. those facts led to a war of terror and murder against them for 100 years in this country and a propoganda war for the last 40 that continues on MTV to this day.

And it gets to something that I see as critical: role models.

While re-reading these posts, I think I have come up with the “answer” to my own statement above.

I was brought up very southern baptist, in a very racially and gender biased home. My home was one where dad did the working and bill paying, mom folded clothes and ironed dad’s shirts for work. Those “roles” are firmly ensconced in my head. Dad was a racist. (I love my dad and wouldn’t trade him for the world… but he’s a racist.)

During those years, I saw black americans working. The fortunate thing is, I didn’t assign a “class” to them. The were “colored” and they worked. It didn’t dawn on me that digging a ditch was any different than working on Wall Street.

Many of you will jump in an say that is exactly the point. No. It is exactly MY point which is a bit different.

I saw black men employed. I saw white men employed. I so no difference in their employment. They were simply employed. I saw black women at home all day with babies. I saw my mom (white) home everyday with babies (me and my sister).

So while I still see a “difference” between races, I see more of a difference between genders.

Vivian, I disagree with your chart now. I see three options. White male, black male and female.

I am still not comfortable with a female stepping outside her role as defined in my mind.

Its an odd split, and I don’t know that I can fully explain it. I will say this. If White Man “A Lister” is running against Black Man “A” lister, I would have a hard time if all things were equal, race not withstanding. I believe I have matured to that point anyway. Still working on the gender issue.

And I am not saying this on your blog because it’s your blog. I am saying this because it’s true on my end. Vivian, you do change my equations.

You spend more time talking about race then those racist skinheads do, do you notice that?

*Cleans you off my election choices forever*

In a perfect world, race, sex, age, etc would make no difference what so ever….

but we live in reality

There is a segment of the population that will not vote for a woman and there is a segment of the population that will not vote for an african american. I am sure there are quantifiable studies that show what proportion of the population believes this just like the studies that show who will not vote for a muslim, mormon, homosexual, etc..

Here is my personal analysis. For the most part I believe that currently, for most minorities to be elected they need to live in an area that has a “decent” minority population and tends to be more blue than red. In the case of African Americans who vote, I believe that many of them tend to be Christian. Depending on your interpretation of the bible women have more of a helper role than a leadershp position. That is the double wammy that African American women face.

As far as minorities vs women overall I would place women ahead of minorities at the local level because once again currently most minorities are only elected from areas that have a “decent” minority population. However, for higher offices we get into the “leadership” issue again and I would submit that just like in white majority districts that are overwhelmingly male in their representation minority area districts followsuit.

This trend is similar to what is occuring in business with women outnumbering minorities at the low and mid managment levels but minority men outnumbering women at the top executive levels.

Of note I would say that the percentage of districts open to trending female are going up and the overall minority districts are trending up. However, African American districts are flat or trending down.

One final note in terms of what you are “stacked up against”. Generally in red areas the 1s have it locked down. So that means 50% is already out and then the 1s, 2s, 3s, and 4s, are all duking it out in the blue areas with 1s still having a majority of positions.

.

Also, in terms of the mechanics of electing a NWM: female political identity isn’t as strong or as dependably one-sided as black political identity, providing the black Democratic candidate a significant boost to get him over the hump (once it appears small enough that the party will nominate a NWM). Maybe more accurately; female politics is more centered around issues (e.g., abortion) whereas black politics responds with astounding positive energy when the candidate is black.

But it is noteworthy that the equation is entirely different for a Democratic and Republican NWM. If the first NWM elected is a Republican, I wager it’ll be a white woman, because nobody thinks black Republicans mean a damn thing they say — period. They’re just puppets. And the last office you want a puppet to hold is that of the President (ahem, GWB); meaning the last person you want as your presidential nominee is an obvious puppet.

So if the Dems get there first I predict a Black man, if the Pubs get there first I predict a white Woman, but it’s rather telling — and I think this is something we should all take a moment to reflect proudly upon — that the entire national conversation about whether America is ready for a NWM, and what kind of NWM it is most ready for began on account of two Democrats who haven’t even announced. Go us, and go U.S.A.

p.s. Although I didn’t choose to take the “course of history” train of thought, I did want to add that the Democratic party has blready nominated a woman for VP (and I think the first NWP VP could well be a woman) — but only 16 years after they had nominated a black man.

p.p.s. Vivian, this discussion was so thought-provoking I had to share it with the VaP crowd. I hope you don’t mind, I told them to come on over here and join in the convo.

Obama forgets that his mother is White, too.

Let me ask you something – do you think people like Virgil Goode or David Duke will hurt all other white males seeking Federal elected representative offices?

Why?

Because Condi is the better choice.

Race and gender ranked lower than character in my decision-making process.

But, giving credit where credit is due – I “see” your point about the political pipeline not having an adequate number of females groomed for Congress/Senate/SCOTUS – and thus in the pipeline for POTUS down the road. It’s an accurate observation from what I observe.

Let me ask you something – do you think people like Cynthia McKinney hurt all other Black Females seeking Federal elected representative offices?

If so, why didn’t the DNC and the Congressional Black Caucus take appropriate actions following her assault on security personnel?

I have wondered about this ever since the she hit that poor guy that was simply doing his job.

But hey, that’s just me (well okay … and a whole lot of others too, or so they tell me.)

Satan is a white male – is he not? Well … maybe a red male.

Me?

I’d vote for Condi Rice if she was the best option I had on the ballot.

Frankly, I like Condi Rice.

And yes, I have met her and spoken with her . . .

CR UVa – I understand what you’re saying but try to think in terms of the overall, not just the specifics of Hillary v Obama.

Reid – you’re very close to my thinking here. The issue, though, is much less about who the parties nominate for president but who is on the bench. Look at the weeding out that takes place at the bottom, where we as voters do have a (albeit small) chance to choose someone different. The pool of presidential candidates is very small. The pool of local candidates is much larger. The Ds and Rs (Condi Rice being the exception) really couldn’t put up a 4 because none exist in that pool. No 4 Senators, no 4 governors. All politics really is local. If we want choices at the top, we must insist on choices at the bottom.

Jack – Condi ain’t a real 4. She usually forgets that she’s black.

I don’t get it.

I believe that Americans are wiser than that. The issue regarding any Presidental candidate that we are allowed to vote for is based on the two mayor political parties – and the second guessing of those that write checks – each cheack writer and political strategists thinking about what type of candidate would win,should they decide to “invest” their money and time in “supporting” said candidate.

If the ballot only had only a Republican Black Female and a Democrat Black Female to pick from, I am very certain that a Black Female would be elected President.

The reason we have not had a Black Female president is because neither the Democrat Party or the Republican Party have placed one on the ballot for us to vote for.

This has probably not happened because the money behind the two main political parties is afraid that perhaps Vivian is correct, males trump females and non-blacks trump blacks in national voting.

It is fear of losing that keeps the two major political parties from giving voters the opportunity to vote for a black female.

If both parties really cared, they could each agree to place a Black female on the Presidential ballot.

We, The People do not pick the candidates – not really.

Barrack Obama, however, is a fascinating possibility, though one that might be hurting after a recent find. On the one hand, he does not hold the same name recognition, and thus has a chance to make a good name for himself to those unaware of him. Race would be used, just as gender would in the case of Hillary Clinton, and though race should not be a qualifier for candidacy, it almost certainly will be in his case. However, his admission of drug use in a book he wrote will hurt him, and could cost him a real shot at the presidency. Even then, I am still of the opinion that he stands a better chance in ’12 or ’16, as he does have plenty of time to wait, and should consider instead to push for the vice presidency to gain some executive experience.

In the case of these two, you might argue that race trumps gender, but I think it has more to do with the (perhaps perceived) characters of these two politicians.

Right now, though, I’d say that the Democrat elected will likely be within the elders of that group (interestingly enough, probably a white male; imagine that), probably a senator, and the Republicans I believe will run a lesser known governor (I imagine most likely a white male as well, governor or not); in other words, we can probably expect two tickets that are not too unlike those that we have seen in the last two elections.

As for a winner, well, the next two years, the nature of the race, and the candidates selected will probably determine the outcome, and it is hard enough right now to predict any of these things.

And I apologize for the wordiness of this comment, but I felt that this is an interesting topic and that I should throw in my three cents; I’m pretty sure two wouldn’t cover this.

Kenton…I’m so glad you piped in….Being a southerner myself it’s easy for us to continue to wrestle with our black white heritage (and we should do this) but forget the larger picture of other minorities. I’m wondering if anyone has done any studies of how the Asian minority is faring in today’s United States.

I figure that currently the LGBT community and the Muslims/Arabs are the major scapegoats and public enemy #1 (according to the “powers that be.”)

In a perfect world, race, sex, age, etc would make no difference what so ever….I figure when that happens we won’t have such a division in gender identifiers (clothing, hairstyles) b/c there will no longer be a need to identify sex at 50 yards….
Buzz…Buzz…

Jack – Rice ain’t running. We all know why – she’s a 3.9

Scott – the changing values is part of the reason why the #2 and #3 positions seem to flip flop.

I wrote this piece a few days ago, updating it as I though about it more and looked for links. I have an inkling as to how black males and white females will think the #2 and #3 positions are held.

Throw into the mix: we’ve never had a black male speaker of the House but we just got a white female.

There are none of us in the Senate or on the Supreme Court.

I’d vote for you.

I mean, you all knew I was going to ask.

I may be a minority, but I pay less attention to race than I do gender.

Please don’t ask me to explain, because I haven’t really thought about it till now. I will get back to you.

Thanks for the great read (as always).

How ’bout we really screw things up and elect Condoleeza Rice?