“Is VA a red state or a blue state?”
Atkinson says VA is a competitive state, and it has been since the 1970s. He is chairman of McGuire Woods Consulting LLC and is the author of Virginia in the Vanguard (2006) and The Dynamic Dominion (1992). Atkinson served in the cabinet of former Gov. George Allen.
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Surburban independent swing voters are a large chunk of the electorate.
Very competitive state, with streaks being run by the parties. 70s was a Republican decade, 1980s was a Democratic decade, 1990s was a Republican decade and this decade could go either way.
Rural areas are becoming more suburban and conservative-leaning independents. Suburban growing areas are becoming more Democratic.
VA may have voted Rs for president but in the last 7 governorships, 5 have been Ds. If you go back 40 years, it is evenly split.
In his opinion, VA has long been a purple state.
If you look at the end of each decade, Congressional representation followed the same path as of party dominance of the decade.
Look at the last 7 Senate races: 4 R wins, 3 D wins.
VA is simply a competitive state.
Economic growth – the party who has won the gubernatorial election at the beginning of this, continues to win. That’s part of the reason why we have these 2-term runs for the parties.
Since 1973, VA has elected a governor from the party opposite that in the White House. Reason: the VA gubernatorial election tends to behave like the first mid-term election of the presidency.
Also, because there is a large number of independents in VA, people like to have divided government.