I’ve been hearing about Republicans crossing over and voting in the Democratic primary for Obama. Since I didn’t witness such behavior at my own precinct while I was there (and, in fact, my precinct captain called me later in the evening to say he hadn’t seen any of the usual Republicans at our precinct), I really didn’t give it a whole lot of thought. Hillary lost Virginia. I was ready to move on to help her win in other states.
But then I saw this article. The part that jumped out at me:
Stephen G. Trent, the chairman of the Suffolk Republican Party, who talked with election workers in five precincts, said longtime Republicans were getting Democratic ballots so they could vote against Clinton.
“People who never voted for a Democrat in their lives said they were going to vote in the Democratic primary,” Trent said.
“But if the Democrats think they’ve got something going here in Suffolk, they’re whistling past a graveyard.”
So, while anecdotal, there does to appear to have been some crossover voting for Obama. The question in my mind is why? I see two possible scenarios.
The first is that the Republicans who crossed over did so because they support Obama and intend to vote for him in November. Those are obviously not the folks Trent is talking about here and perhaps he’s just blowing smoke to try to put a good face on things.
The second possibility is the one that I’ve hinted at before: that the Republicans really don’t want to face Hillary. If they truly believed that Hillary Clinton was the one candidate who could unify the Republican Party behind their candidate, why not cross over and vote for her?
So what do you think? If they did cross over, why did they? Inquiring minds want to know 
Bonus question: I find the results in the 9th CD, where Hillary and Mike Huckabee won, mystifying. The only explanation I’ve been able to come up with is that because that district had relatively low turnout (like most primaries) that the only voters were the party faithful. Any ideas on this?
Hi Vivian!
I found your blog under the WordPress Political blogs tag and thought I’d come visit. I wanted to leave a note, but didn’t see anywhere to do so except in the Comments.
Although we’re on different sides of the Democratic presidential race (I support Barack
), that doesn’t mean I can’t tell you how beautiful I think your blog design is. I realize that it’s one of the available themes, but you’ve customized it so that it is just stunning.
Keep up the good work and, if you’d like, come see me at:
http://thewickedwoman.com
I should say that I’ll be in hospital for the next couple of weeks, but I’m going to TRY to post from there. Wish me luck!
Posted by thewickedwoman | Saturday, February 16, 2008, 7:37 pmYou can always leave comments in my guestbook
Glad you like the design
Posted by vjp | Saturday, February 16, 2008, 7:40 pmMB, vjp — thanks for the precinct info, nicely done by the VA-SBE.
FWIW, the WashTimes had a blurb about a republican Huckabee voter who spent his afternoon volunteering as a phone canvasser for the Obama campaign in MD. I don’t think anyone has a handle on how pervasive this is — there are so many factors. For example, in MD, there’s a good number of Repubs registered as Dems anyway, since elections in Dem-leaning areas are decided at the primary level. Exit polls are only an approximate guide, relying on self-identification w/ small subsamples.
sleepless: increasing the burden of social security costs on larger-earning Americans. There will be substantial costs associated with these new programs and I find it hard to believe that a conservative would go along with that.
or any number of self-employed Dems in high COL areas.
Posted by dh | Saturday, February 16, 2008, 9:39 pmdh: yes, I agree with your last comment. Hope your model works out and any results are posted here.
One last thing on my original post that I want to make clear, those who are politically active in my area (both Republicans and Democrats) have long used the crossover tactic to influence the results “on the other side”.
Yesterday’s WaPo had a very interesting and well-written article in the opinion section, Outlook, written by two Princeton US Political History professors about picking candidates. It really worth a read and some thought and discussion. Vivian, I wish you’d write a diary about it. It’s quite thought provoking. http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues03/06-30/Open_primaries.htm .
Posted by sleepless in virginia | Monday, February 18, 2008, 8:01 amsleepless – why don’t you write it and I’ll post it here as a guest piece?
Posted by vjp | Monday, February 18, 2008, 8:57 amHey, on a lighter side, check out this wonderful Obama site: http://obamawill.com
Posted by Bill Vroom | Monday, February 18, 2008, 9:54 amsleepless: Hope your model works out and any results are posted here.
Will do — it’ll be a while. I’m using this exercise to learn how to use GIS mapping software. After doing some prelim analysis, I’m splitting up the state into two broad classes, static vs dynamic VA. I’m interested in comparing the voting patterns in jurisdictions that have been relatively stable in the last decade vs. jurisdictions that are either bleeding people or absorbing new populations at a rapid rate (like Loudoun).
Posted by dh | Monday, February 18, 2008, 11:35 amI am a conservative and I voted for Obama in the Virginia primaries, although I have every intention of voting for McCain in the national election.
I didn’t do this because I think Obama is an “easier” candidate for the Republican nominee to defeat…just the opposite. In fact, friends dissuaded me for voting as a democrat for this reason…they belief Hillary is the more vulnerable candidate in a contest with McCain.
I voted for Obama because I think he is a man of integrity and although I won’t vote for him in the general election, I’m OK with having him in the White House. However, the thought of the Clinton’s returning to Pennsylvania Ave is absolutely repulsive….which is why I think you’ll find alot of republican’s voting for Obama in the pirmaries.
Posted by An old soldier | Tuesday, February 19, 2008, 9:46 amI have always been a Republican. I was in the crowd in Austin that night in 2000 when Bush was supposed to give either a victory or defeat speech. That did not happen. I went home cold and wet instead. I am so disappointed in the behavior of my party ever since Newt and fiscal sanity left. I voted for fiscal responsibility and an end to the entitlement state. Instead I got corporate lobbied government spending and and a justified, but recklessly executed expensive war in Iraq. Republicans have got to pay in this election. McCain needs to loose because the republicans need to be reborn again, and actually be conservative like there were in 1994. That being said, I couldn’t ever vote for Mrs Clinton. If forced to choose, I would vote McCain. Thats why I’m crossing over and voting for Obama in the Texas democratic primary. He could be my president even though we don’t see eye to eye politically. The Republicans deserve to loose the next presidential election, but NOT to Hillary. I love my country too much for that.
Posted by Barry R | Tuesday, February 19, 2008, 3:19 pmYou know.. I was a Ron Paul supporter. I knew he wouldn’t win, but I was sick of the Republicans bail out of businesses (like airlines) and supposed abhorrence of the market system.
In a race between the Obama and McCain I can’t tell you who I would vote for. I would consider Obama.
Another law that Bush signed in- curbing class actions. With the consumer atrocities going on these days I think we need class actions now more than ever. Maybe Obama/Edwards ticket would give the consumers back a little power (though I realize they have their own group of special interest). I just harbor a lot of skepticism with the results of this recent bush term.
Posted by Almost Ex Republican | Tuesday, February 19, 2008, 8:36 pmFolks…It is not often that you get a chance to pick your rival. That is why republicans are crossing over and voting for Obama.
Posted by DK | Thursday, February 21, 2008, 2:15 pmHey, we got McCain. I don’t think he was the Republicans-only choice.
Posted by Anon E. Mouse | Thursday, February 21, 2008, 3:34 pmIt’s simple. Barack cannot, and I don’t care what the polls are saying, he cannot beat McCain. McCain is guaranteed to be the Republican nominee. Clinton is the only candidate left that stands a chance of beating him. So you push for the likely loser to get the democratic nomination.
Posted by Ninos | Saturday, February 23, 2008, 2:16 amHere’s something that I just found from Talking Points Memo/Greg Sargent — Obama Precinct Captain’s Mailer Urges Republicans To Switch Parties To Stop Hillary
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/01/obama_precinct_captains_mailer_urges_republicans_to_switch_parties_and_caucus_against_hillary.php
I guess I just wasn’t paying close enough attention!
Posted by sleepless in virginia | Sunday, February 24, 2008, 12:10 pmRepublicans see Obama as being more defeatable than HIllary. I plan on voting for Obama in the primary because I know Mccain can beat him. As soon as Obama is the nominee, McCain will start to crush him, with the help of the press, who will lose their positive glow over Obama.
Posted by Politik | Tuesday, February 26, 2008, 1:08 pm