With all of the talk of Obama announcing his running mate, I think I know who it’s going to be: our governor, Tim Kaine.
The schedule has him in Martinsville Wednesday morning (with our next Senator Mark Warner) and in Lynchburg Wednesday afternoon (with Senator Jim Webb). Thursday there is supposed to be an event in Richmond. And I’m hearing that there will be an event in Chesapeake sometime Thursday as well, likely Thursday evening.
Yes, Virginia is a battleground state. And yes, the Obama campaign has opened up in excess of 30 offices here. But it is the timing of the appearances, the number of them, and the various locations, that lead me to believe that Kaine will be the choice.
There is another factor here that I’ve been considering. It just makes no sense to me for Obama to pick Evan Bayh or Joe Biden. If the Democrats had 65 Senators, such a choice would make sense. But with the Democrats barely hanging on to a majority (and that’s only because Joe Lieberman (I-Lieberman) is counted as one of them) and the big push to pick up more seats this fall, removing two Senators make getting to 60 impossible. And that would make life for President Obama much more difficult.
I think Kaine’s the guy.
UPDATE: I forgot to include this tidbit regarding the hiring of Kaine’s 2005 advance man.
48 Comments
Vivian,
Kaine brings nothing to the ticket that Obama needs.
He needs experience, specifically in the foreign policy realm.
And, he needs contacts inside a Democratic Congressional leadership that, if he does win, might not share his agenda.
Kaine might deliver Virginia’s 13 Electoral Votes for him.
But then again they might not.
Kerry picked Edwards four years ago and didn’t win North Carolina. Dukakis picked Bensten and didn’t win Texas. The days of picking VP running mates for Electoral College purposes are, I think, long gone.
That’s why I’m betting on Biden. He’s got experience and a good foreign policy resume. And, unlike Kaine or Bayh, picking him will not result in the seat he holds being handed to a Republican (if Kaine becomes Vice-President, the next Governor of Virginia will be a Republican, if Bayh does his replacement in the Senate would be selected by the Republican Governor of Indiana).
And, in all honesty, I don’t see Tim Kaine playing well anywhere outside of Virginia.
But he can’t take Biden, for the reasons I mentioned above. Dems can’t afford to lose two Senators.And I never said ~ nor do I believe ~ that Obama would pick Kaine for the EVs. There’s other stuff at work here.That’s not to say, BTW, that Biden wouldn’t be a good choice, because in many respects, he would be. But I see some serious downsides with picking Biden, and I think they would be a little much to overcome.
I agree with Doug. McCain will likely look for the man to run in 2012 (or 2016, though I doubt McCain will run in 2012), so he may look for a young guy. But the only thing worse for Obama than looking inexperienced is to look completely inexperienced. As Doug noted, Kaine brings nothing to the ticket (in fact, some polls suggest that Kaine might actually cost Obama his chance at Virginia) other than added emphasis of Obama’s limited experience. McCain has plenty of experience, regardless of his VP pick, but that is not a risk Obama should be taking.
Admittedly though, I am rooting for Obama to take Kaine. It would be helpful to Republicans in Virginia, and helpful to Republicans in the rest of the country.
Well, I disagree that it helps Republicans in Virginia, especially since nearly everyone believes that Bolling is a weaker gubernatorial candidate than McDonnell.
(PS - I lined out that first sentence of mine. I forgot that Biden is in a state where, presumably, a Democrat would be appointed to replace him.)
Bayh would be problematic because the governor of Indiana is a Republican and I don´t see another Democrat besides him holding a seat there. On the other hand, not only Illinois has a Democrat governor but it´s Republican Party is a joke. And I don´t see Republicans winning Delaware.
I wouldn’t read too much into the Virginia scheduling. Obama’s campaign said that they will change their schedule at a moment’s notice according to plans for the VP candidate. With all the Virginia stops, it looks promising for Kaine, but I think Biden is probably favored. His foreign policy experience is second to none, he has a good relationship with Obama, and he is exactly the kind of effective attack dog Obama needs right now.
Doug,
I have to disagree with you, although I think it’s Biden. The Obama folks like to leak this stuff and play the trial balloon game. If it is Kaine, you could put him in catholic areas like Macomb County Michigan, and the Pittsburgh suburbs, where he’ll talk about his trip to Honduras and his faith. He can also help in the sw with Richardson since he’s fluent in spanish. Many people voted for him based on that first intro ad he ran in 2005 that made him look like the suburban dad next door. You have to have some political talent to be a Democrat and win Henrico convincingly, and only lose Chesterfield 55-45, not to mention winning Chesapeake and Virginia Beach (I know it was a state race). Biden goes to every sunday talk show and looks for a mic. He’s been very quiet the last few weeks.
Kerry was a Catholic and lost the Catholic vote.
I think it probably needs to be noted that Tim Kaine has the single best organization in Virginia at the moment–MVF delivered Virginia for Obama in the primary by a wide, wide margin. That organization is going to do everything it can to deliver in the general election, too, don’t get me wrong, but people who underestimate Governor Kaine’s political skillset do so at their own peril. It wouldn’t be an exageration to say that the modern Democratic Party of Virginia is founded on Mark Warner’s good name and Tim Kaine’s organization.
I actually don’t think it’s going to be the Governor–I’d sooner expect a Jim Webb switcheroo, based on the theme of the convention. But in an election where the economy figures to be the #1 issue, Gov Kaine brings strong executive experience keeping our state’s economy on a relatively even keel in both the best of times and the worst of times.
I believe Biden is going to get the nod, although I still see Bayh as an outside chance. I like Kaine, and I think he’d make a fine VP, but Kaine isn’t going to help Obama outside of Virginia (let’s face it; the Klanservatives will continue to carry the Southeast no matter who Obama picks.)
Vivian,
On the question of how much Kaine actually would help Obama in Virginia, there’s this tidbit from last week:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/obama_richmond_va_next_thursda.php
And that’s in Kaine’s home state.
If the test is whether voters would feel comfortable with the idea that Tim Kaine is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, I’m not sure he’d do all that well in his home state or anywhere else.
Given that the election of Obama will signal the world that America is weakening, we can expect assassination attempts on the President and more terrorist attacks, both here and abroad.
Governor Kaine is a good and decent man who America could depend upon, in the likely scenario that Obama is killed in office, if he is, in the unlikely event, elected to the Presidency in the first place.
The sad fact is that with Obama, many interests across the globe that have been held in check, will interpret his election as a green light to mobilize against their various rivals. On the other hand, as President, John McCain, will send a piercing beacon of clarity through the fog of international intrigue, that America remains strong and shall continue to lead the nations of the world to a brighter future for all mankind.
If it’s not Kaine, and he announces someone in the next 24 hours, that’s serious snub for Kaine.
And with the budget the way it is now, I can see a strong demand for Kaine to step down as Governor immediately. Our fiscal crisis, which his budget ignored by the way, needs someone running the show full time. An absent governor is not the right thing for Virginia.
I expect Obama’s Virginia visits to come and go with no announcement and Kaine never gets the tap. But who knows.
Richardson — hands down the best candidate the Democrats had running.
Andre — Kerry just said he was a Catholic.
Is this the appropriate thread to discuss why the Federal Bureau of Investigations should open a file on J. Tyler Ballance in accordance with the USA PATRIOT act for suggesting that the appropriate and expected response to electing a Democrat as President would be murdering him? Or should I wait for a post on that specific topic?
I’m in shock from reading J. Tyler’s comment.
Nice tidbit about the advance man change.
I also think Kaine is the VP choice and Biden is a headfake. Obama may have decided selecting a VP with heavy international experience underscores, rather than solves, a perceived weakness. By selecting a trusted adviser VP (which is what he said he would do) Obama may be signaling he intends to play the lead on inernational affairs rather than outsourcing that role to his VP. What a refreshing change that would be.
JT Ballance. Wow.
JT,
I’ve got to agree with those who are criticizing the beginning of your post.
darn…when i’m not the object of scorn and consternation, there’s something seriously wrong.
I’m still awestruck by the earlier comments from Ballance. After a man shot up a church in Tennessee because he thought it was “too liberal” and after another man in Arksansas assissinated that state’s Demcoratic Party Chair, that sort of statement simply doesn’t qualify as tasteless and ill-concieved political rhetoric. That right there is supporting and suborning terrorism. I appreciate that Salem Republicans took the time to voice his shock because we should all as Americans find this sort of attitude repugnant an unAmerican.
Let me join the chorus of those who are denouncing the comments of JT. I’m speechless.
well, if it can’t be Hillary, I just as soon it be someone I know! Kaine for VP!
Vivian’s speechless?
“Given that the election of Obama will signal the world that America is weakening, we can expect assassination attempts on the President and more terrorist attacks, both here and abroad.” — J. Tyler Ballance
“Is this the appropriate thread to discuss why the Federal Bureau of Investigations should open a file on J. Tyler Ballance in accordance with the USA PATRIOT act for suggesting that the appropriate and expected response to electing a Democrat as President would be murdering him?” — Silence Dogood
As you see, Mr. Balance did not suggest that assassination attempts would be appropriate if Obama were to be elected, only that they should be more expected.
What’s the problem with that?
However, I do disagree with his assessment. The terrorists would love for us to have an inexperienced appeaser as POTUS.
Sorry, I meant to say that I do not agree with Mr. Ballance’s assessment. With an inexperienced appeaser in office, the terrorists would have no reason to assassinate him.
I’m sorry, I guess I just have a problem with anyone believing that if a Democrat wins the majority of the popular vote and the electoral college in a Presidential race, the logical response would be for an American citizen to kill him. That is not the sort of ideal this nation was founded upon, and it is to this country’s credit that at the times when we were most deeply divided politically over the policies of a President that 4 out of 5 people disapproved of, we availed ourselves of the Democratic process our forefathers enshrined for us in our Constitution. Even the “wacko” Democrats who want to get rid of that President and Vice President now wouldn’t even think to breath the word “assassination.” You’ll never hear Code Pink express an opinion like that; they just want to impeach them. Likewise it is to the credit of the vast majority of Republicans that they wouldn’t even contemplate something this loathsome and unAmerican regarding a Democrat. If Obama is elected President, they’re not going to grab their guns, they’re just going to keep voting against him and his policies. Which is the way the system is supposed to work–it’s why we have a system in the first place.
…perhaps it’s wrong of me to expect understanding on the matter from someone who thinks half the people here are, themselves, socialists. This has been a shocking and painful reminder that for a tiny but potentially dangerous minority of Americas, the only enemies they see are other Americans.
“The terrorists would love for us to have an inexperienced appeaser as POTUS.”
As Bush’s mama would say, it’s worked out very well for them so far. Come November, of course, that will change.
Without daring to touch on the touchy topic discussed so well by silencedogwood, let me just add that Vice President Cheney has proven an effective insurance policy against the current President’s impeachment, at the very least.
“I’m sorry, I guess I just have a problem with anyone believing that if a Democrat wins the majority of the popular vote and the electoral college in a Presidential race, the logical response would be for an American citizen to kill him.”
But that’s not what Mr. Ballance said, was it? In fact, from the context of “more terrorist attacks,” and in light of the foiled plot to assassinate former Pres. George H. W. Bush in Kuwait, it is a real stretch to assume that Mr. Ballance was talking about an American citizens as potential assassins.
Furthermore, Mr. Ballance said nothing about a “logical response,” only and expected response. People do illogical things all the time. If you know of an event that is likely to set off the lunatics (such as winning or losing a basketball championship), then one may logically expect a certain response to that event (such as rioting in Detroit) without saying that the response is logical. When dealing with lunatics (i.e., Islamo-fascists) it can be quite logical to expect an illogical response.
AEM,
Consider only quotes from your post:
From JTB: “…the logical response would be for an American citizen to kill him.”
From AEM: “…it is a real stretch to assume that Mr. Ballance was talking about an American citizens as potential assassins.”
Nope, not that much of a stretch. The words are pretty clear.
Getting back to the point of Vivian’s article:
Let me say that I am amongst those less likely to vote for Obama if he selects Kaine.
Having said that, I need to identify that I lean McCain thus far. However the selection of VP’s (on both sides) could upset the apple cart and get me to switch. I am not a firm McCain supporter, I only lean in his direction right now.
David, it was Silence Dogood, not Mr. Ballance, who wrote “…the logical response would be for an American citizen to kill him.” Mr. Dogood was trying to attribute that sentiment to Mr. Ballance.
Please get your facts straight.
Get yours straight. He referenced assassination separately from foreign and domestic terrorism.
OK, quoting from JTB: “Given that the election of Obama will signal the world that America is weakening, we can expect assassination attempts on the President.”
OK, since the Obama election is pointed to, as opposed to the election of someone else, what do you take from this?
No, silence, he did not. In fact, he did not even put any punctuation between the two:
“…we can expect assassination attempts on the President and more terrorist attacks, both here and abroad.”
Furthermore, since he prefaces that with “the election of Obama will signal the world that America is weakening” (emphasis mine), he is clearly speaking of acts of others besides American citizens.
Now, David, you ask a legitimate question: “[Since] the Obama election is pointed to, as opposed to the election of someone else, what do you take from this?”
Just what Ballance said, that the election of Obama (an inexperienced appeaser) would be a sign of weakness. Terrorists are bullies, and bullies attack when they see weakness.
J. Tyler, I don’t know what sort of trauma you were exposed to during your stint with the Ron Paul Revolution, but it’s clearly having residual effects.
Heard today on some radio program that Howard Fineman, Newsweek magazine, said it’s definitely going to be Joe Biden. We’ll see.
I’m hearing from other sources that it will be Kaine. Like you said, we’ll see.
Brian after your performance last year, your not worth the trouble .
It’s “you’re”
At least launch attacks with proper grammar.
“Just what Ballance said, that the election of Obama (an inexperienced appeaser) would be a sign of weakness. Terrorists are bullies, and bullies attack when they see weakness.”
It can´t be worse than Bush. Most people outside the US thinks that the Americans suffered a major defeat in Iraq and everyone jokes with Bush. If the matter is having a strong image then waging colonial wars where bodies of Americans soldiers could be shown all over the world is the last thing to do. Most people outside the US don´t care if the president is a appeaser. But they care and see weakness when they see thousands of Americans Soldiers dying somewhere.
And terrorists aren´t bullies, but coldblooded killers.
New poll out in Indiana has Obama down 6. Can Evan Bayh swing 6 points? Doubtful. Looks like this is down to Biden and Kaine.
“It can´t be worse than Bush.”
News flash, Andre: Bush isn’t running.
Oh, the fun I’ve missed.
“News flash, Andre: Bush isn’t running.”
Yes. But if America survived Bush it survives anything. Sure that the problem is that Obama supports colonial wars where Americans can be beat. That´s more problematic than his “appeasement”.
Couple of problems, there. First, I don’t think we can say that America *has* survived Bush. I think that will only really be clear well into the next Administration. Which brings us to the next problem - even assuming that America can make it through two Bush terms, it doesn’t mean it can necessarily withstand a third.
This may be the looniest thread that I’ve ever seen on this blog.
“But if America survived Bush it survives anything.”
So you do not care what qualifications and policies the candidates have, because America will survive either way? Fine, don’t vote if you don’t care.
“Sure that the problem is that Obama supports colonial wars where Americans can be beat.”
Would you mind trying to make that into a sentence?
“Which brings us to the next problem - even assuming that America can make it through two Bush terms, it doesn’t mean it can necessarily withstand a third.”
I agree. Between Amnesty for Illegals, a prescription drug benefit, and No Child Gets Ahead, Bush has done plenty of damage. The problem is, Obama will be even worse than McCain. The reason the Democrats did not like the prescription drug benefit was that the government did not have enough control. The Democrats want even more interference from the federal government in education. The Democrats want even more illegal immigration.
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