Comments on: 2nd CD update

By: 2nd CD debate roundup « VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local

2nd CD debate roundup « VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local — Sat, 21 Aug 2010 16:51:53 +0000

[...] writing, Nye and Golden have committed to attending. Rigell’s camp is still holding their three (or five) independent polls position on whether they will show, ludicrous in light of their participation Thursday. Possibly [...]

By: Jessica Sandlin

Jessica Sandlin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 21:19:02 +0000

Always enjoy reading your stuff, Vivian. I agree this is a tough race, for anyone running.

By: Brian Kirwin

Brian Kirwin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 14:14:40 +0000

I wonder if Rigell will play by the same rules he insists on for Golden.

Rigell should be excluded from debates until he shows at least 15% in 5 independent polls.

By: Scott Cohen

Scott Cohen — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:12:25 +0000

I was saying that Repubs are not going to vote for Nye because they know it will be a vote for Pelosi to control the house. My point is that this is something that Rigell will use, not that I am going to use. I think the fact that the Dems felt it necessary to pour thousands into Miller’s campaign kind of make it a stiff challenge, it was money that could have been used elsewhere.

By: vjp

vjp — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 22:41:32 +0000

That’s not what I was referring to. It was the “a vote for Nye is a vote for Pelosi” stuff. That is straight out of the Republican playbook. No Dem or leaning Dem is going to say that.

Bobby Mathieson lost by 14 votes, hardly a sweep. Paula Miller had a “strong challenger?” Please. I live in the 87th. I’d not call that challenger “strong” by any means.

So yes, those are Republican talking points.

By: vjp

vjp — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 22:37:06 +0000

Lower, I agree. But not low. Low to me is in the teens.

The council races, if the candidates are doing their part, should help drive up the turnout.

By: Scott Cohen

Scott Cohen — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 19:45:09 +0000

republican talking points? You and I both know these are not talking points. With Obama not on the ballot how is Glenn Nye going to reel in key demographics? Please explain to me how Glenn Nye is going to generate all of this enthusiasm. If you take a look at *when* Glenn Nye makes decisions and votes in addition to just *how* maybe you will see what I am seeing.

By: Wally Erb

Wally Erb — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 16:01:15 +0000

Corrected. Perhaps the VB Council may raise voter turnout if a controversial issue, such as whether or not to have a light rail referendum becomes a candidate issue. However as far as national elections, mid-term turnout is lower than Presidential years.

By: vjp

vjp — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:39:26 +0000

I find it difficult to believe you lean towards Democrats and yet use Republican talking points about the race.

By: vjp

vjp — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:37:50 +0000

Low as compared to what? 2008? Yes. But it’s really hard to know exactly what the turnout will be this year. In 2006, with a Senate race at the top, the turnout was better than 47% in VB. In 2002, again with a Senate race at the top, the turnout was almost 38%. 1998 was the last time we had Congressional races at the top of the ballot – and the districts looked different back then.

Plus, we have VB council races on the ballot. That should help with turnout.

I agree: this race can go either way. There is no clear winner at this point.

By: vjp

vjp — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 11:30:39 +0000

Two letters to the editor today (1, 2) disagree with you. I agree: Golden's on the ballot, let him debate.

By: Wally Erb

Wally Erb — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 03:45:26 +0000

Let’s look at it from a different angle. Rather than the R,D,I scenario, what if it is played up as a Republican, Democrat, real Republican race. Also, as a mid-term election, if history proves true, turn out will be low. The second district is in the toss-up column and the national party organizations are going to pump in mucho moo-la either to maintain or gain majority control irrespective of their doggie’s ideological color.

One thing is sure; it is going to be a knock down, drag out, mudslinger. Anyone who can actual have a prediction on the fickle voters of the second district must have one heck of a crystal ball. This this juncture, this thing can go any which way.

By: Coby Dillard

Coby Dillard — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 22:14:24 +0000

Five independent polls?

And I thought three was unrealistic.

Golden’s on the ballot; he should be allowed to debate. Anything else makes Rigell look a little questionable…

By: Scott Cohen

Scott Cohen — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:17:10 +0000

I am a Dem. leaning Independent. I will be voting for Scott Rigell. Even though I have a lot in common with Glenn Nye, I think he waits until the last minute to vote for controversial issues like C&T and HCR. He waited until after the Dems secured enough votes to vote against. Come on, he has no backbone! I want someone decisive in there. What do you think about this Vivian?

By: Scott Cohen

Scott Cohen — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:15:07 +0000

Great analysis Vivian! One again you are right on the money except for just one thing– Rigell has less trouble with Repubs than Nye has with Dems. Reasoning is that republicans will not support Mr. Nye or Kenny Golden- they are just too liberal and a vote for Nye is a vote for Pelosi (which in the fall you will see be an issue Rigell will raise). Also, given the fact that Nye will not be able to replicate the same turnout as 2008 and also his race is the biggest on the ballot. In 2009, Joe Bouchard and Bobby Mathieson were swept out of office as well as Paula Miller having a strong challenge. Republicans will vote and they will vote for Rigell, Nye will not get the Dems that he needs to win this election. Maybe he can use his huge warchest to bring down Rigell, but as it looks I just don’t see much hope for me. He has not made himself known and he has such a low profile in the district I just cannot see him winning.