Prediction time

10 Responses to “Prediction time”

1. 

   I admire your optimism.

   Posted by MB | Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 6:06 pm
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   • 

     That’s my best case scenario.

     Posted by Vivian J. Paige | Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 6:24 pm
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2. 

   I’m saying Repulicans take a 21-19 edge. There’s possibility of course for much more than that…but that would require all the close races to break one way. This just doesn’t feel like a wave election to me. Also, I’ve noticed that many people seem to think the GOP needs to pick up only three seats to get to the majority. That’s wrong. At the moment, due to redistricting and retirement they only have 16. They’ll pick up open seats in Southside and Southwest to get back to 18 and then I think they knock out three Dem incumbents.

   Posted by Steve Vaughan | Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 6:11 pm
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   • 

     My worse case scenario is 22-18 R.

     Posted by Vivian J. Paige | Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 6:27 pm
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3. 

   My worst care scenario is 20-20 and Bill Bolling becomes essentially the most powerful man in Virginia, but it doesn’t stop there, becayse Then Jeff McWaters spends $20 million to become LG and he holds the deciding vote…

   Posted by Max Shapiro | Tuesday, November 8, 2011, 8:15 pm
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4. 

   Vivian: I bow to your superior predictive powers. Although I was right, off and on, all night Tuesday.
   Max: This should be interesting. When the Senate was 20-20 before, Republicans argued that
   Democratic L.G. Don Beyer could not cast the tie-breaking vote on organizational issues. Perhaps, Norment and Saslaw can swap speeches 1995.

   Posted by Steve Vaughan | Wednesday, November 9, 2011, 2:16 pm
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   • 

     They aren’t making that argument this time. Going into last night, I had it 18-18 with 4 toss ups. I was wrong on one race – thought Dodson could pull off a win in the 22nd. Turns out that race wasn’t even competitive. I didn’t think Dems could win all 4 of the toss ups, only expected 2.

     Posted by Vivian J. Paige | Wednesday, November 9, 2011, 3:27 pm
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5. 

   I went wrong in expecting the GOP would be able to knock off either Phil Puckett or Toddy Puller. They both won fairly easily.

   Posted by Steve Vaughan | Thursday, November 10, 2011, 10:53 am
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   • 

     I had Puller winning, although I expected the margin on that race to be less than 10 points. It was just over 10.

     I had Puckett as a toss-up and his margin – just over 6 points – put it in the competitive category

     Posted by Vivian J. Paige | Thursday, November 10, 2011, 12:30 pm
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6. 

   Congratulations on a successful prediction, Vivian!

   Posted by Silence Dogood | Thursday, November 10, 2011, 8:00 pm
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