Congratulations to Chairman Moran. And thanks to Peter Rousselot for offering to serve.

Democrats across Virginia need a strong and knowledgeable leader to fight for the party in the next election. I know Brian Moran is fully aware of what goes on in the General Assembly and the State Senate. Years ago, Brian and I jointly gave the response to Gov. Gilmore’s State of the Commonwealth Address. His commitment to maintaining our Democratic majority in the Senate is as strong as it was when he was House Caucus Chair, as he personally knows how important it is for Democrats in the Senate to stop the extreme agenda of the House Republicans. Brian Moran is the right person to lead our party as the next Chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia.

In case you missed it, Mark Brooks also endorsed Brian this week. I spoke with Senate majority leader Dick Saslaw earlier this week and he is supporting Brian for chair.

From every corner of Virginia, from the grassroots to the grasstops, Brian Moran has garnered support. I’m looking forward to his election.

Dear Fellow Democrats,

Brian Moran can count on my support in December, and I hope he can count on yours too!

I am in very good company with Brian Moran’s many, many endorsements from all over the Commonwealth. I am sending this note as a grassroots Democrat inspired to step up to lead my local Democratic committee as Mathews County Democrats chairman for two terms, and now with the support of Democrats from across the Commonwealth (including many of you!) in my first campaign for local office.

I know first hand, both as a former local committee chairman and as a candidate for local office, the investments of time (not to mention travel time!) and treasure Brian is willing to invest for the Democratic Party of Virginia. Even after the election Brian was there to mentor me with advice on governing and staying true to Democratic principals.

Although I was always very grateful for Brian’s support and advice during my campaign for school board in 2007, I was a little curious as to why he would help Jen Little with a little school board race in little Mathews County. One day I asked Brian why with all the state House, state Senate, and countless local races across the Commonwealth he took interest in a school board race in Mathews County. His response was simple, Brian stated he was investing in the future of the Democratic Party in Virginia. The advice and mentoring from Brian during my campaign was very much needed and still very much appreciated.

Brian Moran demonstrates true dedication to the Democratic Party of Virginia.

Brian Moran will be a Chairman who will move the DPVA forward and get us all back to the business of electing Democrats to office at every level of government.

Brian Moran didn’t need to be Chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia to help Democrats win races all over Virginia – Brian was there for us before this position ever became open – Now is time to make it his job!

Join me in supporting Brian when we all meet in December!

See you in Newport News!

With very best regards,
Jen

Jen Little
Mathews County
First Congressional District Committee

In case you missed them, a few other endorsements:  Shawn O’Donnell, Ward Armstrong, Eileen Levandowsi, Carlos Del Toro And check out Brian’s website and Facebook page.

For all the polls and hype, according to the historical trends, this ought to still be Brian’s race to lose.

Even so, I was prepared for a Creigh Deeds victory. I figured somewhere around 38%-39% for him – certainly not over 40% – with the remainder being split between Moran and Terry McAuliffe. I was astonished at the nearly 50% that Deeds got and poured over the results. Nearly everywhere I looked, including the precincts in Norfolk, Deeds had won.  Given that I had spent Election Day traveling around the city, I had no sense that Deeds could pull it off here. If precinct presence was any indication, it looked like Moran. I ran into Deeds signs (with the WashPo endorsement on them) at a few precincts and only one that had a Deeds poll worker. (I did not visit every precinct in the city.) Same was true for the McAuliffe campaign – some signs, only one precinct with a poll worker.  The results in Ward 5 were even more astonishing: Deeds won eight of the nine precincts in this ward, which is represented by McAuliffe supporter, Councilman Randy Wright.

So what happened? As a Moran supporter, I think it boiled down to two things: negativity and money.

Negativity

I’m not a fan of negative campaigning – never have been, never will be. And anyone who has ever been the subject of such ultimately comes to the same conclusion. There is a way to point out differences between yourself and your opponent without resorting to that. I was unhappy with the negativity emanating from the campaign and expressed it over and over to no avail.

A successful candidate has to answer two questions: why not to vote for the other guy and why to vote for you. Negative campaigning only answers the first point, not the second.

While some took pleasure in defeating McAuliffe, they failed to realize that such negativity left the voters no choice but to go to Deeds. Saying no to McAuliffe without saying yes to Moran was a recipe for failure. Not only did it move the undecideds to Deeds, it moved some Moran supporters to him.  The trend lines from the polling were clear: Moran stayed pretty flat the whole time.  The goal here was to elect Moran, not simply to defeat McAuliffe.

To be honest, I hope that some of the folks who were involved in this “strategy” never have the opportunity to work in politics again.

Money

With money, a campaign can get out its message.  Without it, a campaign is sunk. Moran had money but used it the wrong way. Conventional wisdom says that 70% of campaign funds should be used for voter contact.  Paying consultants is not voter contact, and, unfortunately, that’s where Moran’s money went. It’s been discussed for at least two years that Moran was spending way more money than he should have been. At the end of the day, there was no way to combat the negativity coming out of the campaign because there was no money to do so.

Yes, I got some mail pieces from Moran. (None from McAuliffe or Deeds, I might add.) But when the war is being waged on TV and you aren’t there, a win is impossible. You can’t go into a gun fight with a knife. McAuliffe was on TV for what seems like forever. (I think he made a mistake by talking so much in his own commercials – that gave Virginians the opportunity to know that he wasn’t from here.) Deeds’ commercials were extremely well done, presenting a picture of a confident, experienced candidate.  He made a strategic choice to reduce staff to be able to go on TV. He parlayed The Washington Post endorsement into more money (take a look at the $5,000 and over contributions he received since the last reporting period ), which allowed him to not only stay on TV, but to go up in the very expensive, voter-rich NoVA market.

By contrast, Moran only went on TV in selected markets, and then with only negative commercials. Not only was he never able to introduce himself to the voters, the only thing they saw barely had him in it.

It’s not just about raising money – Moran raised more money than Deeds, at least through the last reporting period – it’s about using it wisely. Deeds did that, Moran did not

~

As I said Tuesday evening, we have our ticket. I’m not sure that I agree with AIAW that it was a pragmatic decision on the part of voters; rather, I think it was a choice predicated upon the options as they were presented. Political junkies knew all the details of the race, but I doubt that the average voters were so lucky.  Bob Griendling has an excellent post on the lack of newspaper coverage, one with which I agree. And as I said in this Bearing Drift podcast, the blogs simply cannot close this gap.

The Democrats have nominated a moderate ticket that should match up quite nicely against the Republican one. The focus will be on the top of the ticket – Deeds and Bob McDonnell – and separating the two in the minds of voters will be our task. Do I wish the ticket were more liberal? You bet. But at least we have a ticket that I can support.

On to victory in November!

At the end of the day, the lesson from this campaign ought to be (a) know you’re base, (b) know your opponent’s base, and (c) secure your base while making your opponent fight for his. Creigh Deeds’ statewide votershare closely mirrors his voteshare in the three NOVA Congressional Districts (8,10,11) and with slightly more than 1/3rd of the vote coming out of these three districts, that once again looks fairly decisive.

Brian’s strategy from the very beginning was to lock down wins in these three districts as the NOVA candidate. Terry’s entry into the race utterly terrified him because he was no longer the only game in town — but even if we assume that everyone who voted for Terry in those districts still would have voted for Brian, Creigh still would have locked down 47% of the vote in NOVA. Meanwhile Creigh carried his base of support in the 5th and 9th Congressional Districts handily, securing nearly 70% of the vote in a 3-way race. These two districts accounted for another 12% of the vote; in a Brian-Creigh heads-up race, Brian would have had to carry a sizeable chunk of the black vote in the 3rd Congressional District (another 11% of the voteshare) to be assured of a win. Considering Moran’s voteshare in this up-for-grabs constituency, that was probably unlikely. It’s not precisely clear who would have won the race if Terry had never gotten in, but it probably would have been a nail-biter — which in itself is remarkable, considering Brian’s election was a foregone conclusion two years ago.

From Terry’s perspective, he entered the race with a lot of fundraising potential, a lot of baggage (good and bad), a huge staff, and no base whatsoever to speak of. It’s tough to say what his strategy was to win this contest as a consequence. Tactically they were operating very well, but as Sun Tzu wrote, strategy without tactics is the longest path to victory, but tactics without strategy is the surest path to defeat.

He closed his comments with this:

This is a great day to be a Democrat; it’s a lousy day to be a Republican. Raw turnout numbers for this year’s primary totalled more than twice the number of primary voters who turned out for the Senatorial Dem primary in 2006. Credit to the folks on all three campaigns, Moving Virginia Forward, and the Democratic Party of Virginia — we are clearly much better organized going into this year’s election than we were back in 2005. The engine keeps chuggin’.

And the new TV ad running in Roanoke

Come join the Moran staff…

To Get Out the Vote For Brian Moran

ELECTION EVE BASH

Monday, June 8, 2009
5pm-Midnight

Canvass, Phone Bank,
Help prepare for Election Day!

Moran Virginia Beach Field Office
737 Independence Blvd, Unit 104
(Giant Square Shopping Center)
Virginia Beach, Virginia

RSVP to Jessica Bowman
jessica.bowman@brianmoran.com

In other news, PPP released a new poll (pdf) today:

With a week to go until the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia the state of the race is as muddled as ever, with all three candidates within five points of each other. Creigh Deeds has a slight lead with 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%. All three candidates are within each other’s margins of error and if the election was today any of the trio could plausibly finish first or last.

This prompted the Moran campaign to release part of its own poll.

This comes on the heels of a NOVA-only SUSA poll that was released yesterday which shows Moran with a substantial lead in that region.

Go, Brian, go!

10.  Consistently shown as best placed to beat General Bob.

9.  Ward Armstrong knows who’ll fight hardest to make him Speaker.

8.  He’ll fix this %&$^@# transportation mess (yes, I was on 95,64 and 264 during the Memorial Day weekend).

7.  He’s been to Martinsville more times recently than I have.

6.  His only Whoppers have come from Burger King.

5.  Knows the best place to get a Blizzard after coming out of the Great Dismal Swamp.

4.  His kids love Breaks Park.

3.  He’s green, and not just on St. Patrick’s Day.

2.  Hard Work.

1.  Karyn Moran!

Jim Severt is a lawyer originally from Martinsville, Virginia

1. Offshore Drilling
2. Renewable Energy
3. No to the Surry Coal Plant
4. Green Jobs
5. Increasing Efficiency and Conservation
6. Protecting Our Natural Resources
7. Insuring Every Child
8. Helping Small Businesses Afford Health Care
9. Expanding Access to Rural Health Care: Retention, training & incentives to practice in rural areas
10. Expanding Access to Rural Health Care: Increase rural clinics, leverage federal dollars & work with nonprofits
11. Focusing On Prevention
12. Expanding Research
13. Caring for Virginia’s Greatest Generation: Investing in in-home services & innovative partnerships
14. Caring for Virginia’s Greatest Generation: Investing in long-term care
15. Caring for Virginia’s Greatest Generation: Investing in training & recruiting providers
16. Standing Up For Seniors
17. Supporting Virginia’s Military Families
18. Veteran’s Shouldn’t Have to Sacrifice Their Jobs, Health Care or Homes to Serve
19. Ensuring Veterans Get the Care They Deserve
20. Providing Economic Opportunities for Virginia’s Veterans
21. Train Veterans for the Green Jobs of the Future
22. Ensuring Retirement Security for Virginia’s Small Business Employees
23. Caring for Virginia’s Greatest Generation
24. Who He Is Defines What He’ll Do
25. Expanding Pre-K
26. Attracting and Retaining Quality Teachers
27. Building Smarter, Greener, Healthier Schools

I will post the other reasons as they appear.

And in case you missed it, here is another great endorsement of Brian, giving another whole set of reasons for supporting him.

But since we are on the topic let’s set the record straight. All three of the democratic candidates for governor have been negative at one point or another. It comes in many different forms: radio-ads, blog posts, “on background” e-mails,  twitter updates and YouTube clips. They have all taken the opportunity, either themselves or through their closely associated supporters, to highlight differences in their policies and positions.

Yep. Like Nobles, I’ve seen it, too. And, truth be told, I’m none too happy about it.

Watching the devolution of Virginia politics over the past three years has been painful. No doubt that played a part in the decision of The Richmond Democrat to retire.  I’ve watched some really good people turn into virtual monsters. Is it any wonder, then, that the majority of folks simply tune out?

Is this the best we can do?

Democrats are, no doubt, feeling pretty good about our chances right now with President Obama’s approval ratings after 100+ days being pretty high. But November is a long way off, and a lot can happen between now and then. John Judis of The New Republic opines in this article that the picture may soon not be so rosy.

According to Gallup, 66 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing. But I expect that Obama’s popularity will begin to fall, even plummet, as the leaves turn brown. That’s not to say he is doing a bad job, but that the tasks he faces in fixing the economy remain daunting, and beyond resolution in his first year or, perhaps, even first term.

[...]

There is reason to be worried that we’re still a long way from seeing growth rather than slower decline. Much of a recovery will rest on a growth in consumer demand, but the most recent figures show a 0.4 percent decline in retail spending from March to April–and an 11.4 percent decline from the previous April. That’s not the stuff of growth.

[...]

As consumer demand continues to plummet and actual joblessness continues to soar, I expect Obama’s popularity to suffer.

This has been my fear all along. A dip in the popularity of the president (combined with dismal approval ratings of Congress) could very well tank the chances for Democrats – not only to win the governor’s mansion but also actually lose some seats in the House of Delegates. With that goes any chance for reasonable redistricting reform and Republican-drawn districts for the next ten years. Kiss goodbye Congressman Perriello and Congressman Nye, as those districts will be likely redrawn to more favor Republican candidates.

My eye has long been on the prize of redistricting reform. I thought we had a chance in 2008, with the General Assembly being under split control. But it didn’t happen, despite passage of legislation by the Democratically-controlled Senate. There simply are not enough constituent-minded Republicans in the House of Delegates to get bipartisan – forget non-partisan – legislation through.

Even under perfect conditions, I am not convinced that Democrats have the ability to pick up six seats in a single election cycle. I understand that the most seats that have ever changed hands is four. These are not perfect conditions. (Heck, I’m not sure that we could have picked up six seats had the House elections been held last year, when the blue wave washed over Virginia for the first time since 1964. )

The Democratic candidate for governor may very well, by fall, find himself needing to distance himself from the national party, to be what someone called the other day a “Virginia Democrat.” As Democrats look at the trio of candidates who would carry the party’s banner,  it would be wise not to look at where we are on June 9, but where we very well could be on November 3.

Please join

Former Virginia Beach Mayor Meyera Oberndorf
Mayor Paul Fraim
Mayor James Holley
Former Chesapeake Mayor William E. Ward
Delegate Kenny Alexander
Delegate Joe Bouchard
Delegate Bobby Matheison
Bryan Collins, Chesapeake Councilman
Dr. Shelia Hill, Chair, Chesapeake School Board
Tina Pullen, Chesapeake School Board Member
Former Virginia Beach Councilwoman Louisa Strayhorn

for an

Open House at Virginia Beach Field Office

and meet

Former Delegate Brian Moran
Democratic Candidate for Governor

Saturday, May 9 , 2009

1pm-2:30 pm

737 Independence Blvd, Unit 104
(Independence/Pembroke area- Giant Square shopping center)
Virginia Beach, VA 23455

For more info contact Jessica Bowman jessica.bowman@brianmoran.com

Please visit www.brianmoran.com

For those outside of the area, check your local public TV stations for airing dates.

While you are there, join us at Organize Virginia to help elect the best candidate for governor.

Additional coverage of the debate can be found on the VEA website, in The Virginian-Pilot, and in The Daily Press. I think we can also expect a Daily Kos article from Arjun Jaikumar, who was also there and who covered the Farm Team event.  (By the way, in case you missed it, the video of the entire video from Williamsburg is available here.) I did not see any other bloggers there, so take what you read at some of the other blogs with a grain of salt: it’s campaign spin.

The format of the forum – note: this was not a debate – was that each candidate was given time for an opening statement, then asked a series of questions that had, at least according to one source, been provided in advance, and then a closing statement. The forum was conducted as a part of the VEA state convention, which was attended by about 800 delegates from across the state. For those who followed my Twitter feed last night,  I tried to update, in real time, what was happening there.

One of the most interesting things of the forum was who invoked Obama and who didn’t. One would normally expect that it would be the Democratic candidates who would talk about President Obama, but it was not. Republican Bob McDonnell repeatedly used the President’s name, saying he agreed with Obama on a number of issues. Of course, those issues happen to be ones with which most Democrats disagree, particularly school vouchers. But as usual, McDonnell, who has already shifted to the center for the general election, attempted to come off as a reasonable Republican. He even bragged about increased Virginia funding for education and conveniently left out that he voted against Warner’s 2004 budget which included $1.5B for K-12 education.

On the Democratic side, Creigh Deeds got the largest applause of the night with his line, “We can’t expect excellence if we don’t even pay for average.” Both Deeds and Moran emphasized their legislative records. All of the Democrats support the usual education issues, including pre-K funding, smaller class sizes and raising teacher salaries. McAuliffe, ever the showman, talked about raising teacher salaries not to the national average of about $52,000 but to that of our neighbors to the north, Maryland and Washington DC, where the salaries average about $60,000. Virginia’s teachers average about $46,000.

McAuliffe’s opening remarks got a lot of applause. Not unexpected when you promise everything that the educators want. After his remarks, I turned around and asked one of the convention delegates whether he had promised everything. She smiled and said no. She said, “He didn’t promise me a million dollars!”

I have to admit: this is one area where I have trouble with McAuliffe. On the one hand, he hides behind the legislature to say he won’t work for the repeal of Marshall-Newman. On the other hand, he makes all of these grandiose promises without considering the legislative environment in which he would have to operate. If there is anything that bugs me, it is inconsistency. And McAuliffe demonstrates that on a fairly regular basis. Constrained by reality, both Deeds and Moran don’t promise what they have no hope of delivering. (Of course, if Virginia allowed governors to run for re-election, there would be some accountability for such nonsense. But then that’s a post for another day.)

Talking with some of the convention delegates afterwards, it was interesting to note how many of them simply have not paid any attention to the upcoming primary. (Guess that explains the undecided voters in all the polls.) For many, this was their first opportunity to hear the candidates.  Each of the convention delegates was provided with literature on all of the candidates. Hopefully, this will be an awakening for them about June 9.

Every question to be asked of the candidates will come through the new media. You can submit a question via YouTube (please notify the organizers by email once you have posted your short video), Twitter,  or simply by leaving your questions in this thread.  Please leave your home city and state so that the organizers will know where the questions are coming from.

The debate will be broadcast by C-SPAN and a live feed has been promised.

So, if you have a question for the Democratic candidates for governor, leave them here and we’ll see if your question gets asked at the debate

UPDATE: Please get your questions in. The debate is coming soon.

The entire press release is below the fold.

UPDATE: I just received Moran’s statement on the Partisans support. It, too, is below the fold.

April 20, 2009

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

VIRGINIA PARTISANS RECOMMENDS BRIAN MORAN FOR GOVERNOR

The Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbian Democratic Club today recommended that equality-minded voters support Brian Moran in the Democratic Primary for Governor on June 9.

“All of the Democratic candidates are far superior to the Republican candidate on equality issues,” said Charley Conrad, Partisans President. “Whoever wins the Democratic primary will have our endorsement in the general election. But in the primary, it’s clear that Brian Moran stands head and shoulders above the competition in terms of support for equality and LGBT rights.”

In making the recommendation, the Virginia Partisans Board of Directors considered the candidates’ track record on issues as well as their current campaign positions. All three candidates – former Delegate Moran, state Senator Creigh Deeds, and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe – were asked to complete a questionnaire on issues of concern to the LGBT community, and each was interviewed by the Board.

“Brian Moran is clearly the most LGBT-positive candidate who has ever run for Governor of Virginia, ” Conrad noted. “Throughout his career, he’s been with us 100% of the time – not just in terms of his voting record, but also in the leadership positions he has taken in support of equality. And even now, during this campaign, he continues to push pro-equality positions, despite the fact that they may cost him votes downstate.”

While other nearby states are actively debating marriage rights or expanding civil union benefits, gays in Virginia are still reeling from the passage of the anti-gay-marriage Marshall-Newman Constitutional Amendment in 2006. How the candidates dealt with the issue at that time is informative:

· The two houses of the state legislature each had approximately 15 recorded votes related to the amendment proposal, including attempts to kill the proposal, to amend it, to change the wording on the ballot itself, and for final passage each of 2 years. Moran voted with the LGBT community’s interests on all of those votes. Deeds voted with us part of the time, but against us on final passage. McAuliffe wasn’t a member of the legislature so has no record to compare with.

· During the public campaign on the amendment, Moran was an early and vocal leader among elected officials in opposing it, and he campaigned statewide against it. Through his leadership and efforts, other top Democratic elected officials also followed suit, including Gov. Tim Kaine, former Gov. (and now Sen.) Mark Warner, and then-candidate Sen. James Webb. To his credit, during the public campaign, Deeds said he had made a mistake in voting for the amendment in the legislature and publicly campaigned for a “no” vote by the public. McAuliffe, a private citizen in Virginia at the time, says he voted against the amendment, but there is no record of him campaigning against it in the way the other two candidates did.

· During the current gubernatorial campaign, Moran continues his leadership on this issue, urging the amendment’s prompt repeal during candidate debates and forums and on the campaign trail. On this and other issues of importance to the LGBT community, Deeds says he is a “work in progress” and, indeed, his positions over time have evolved to be more and more progressive on equality issues. McAuliffe’s position has been that these issues shouldn’t be debated during the primary – preferring that the election be entirely about economic and management issues.

“On many issues, all three candidates are solidly on our side,” Conrad noted. “All three are with us on the need for gay-straight alliances in our schools, for anti-bullying efforts, for equality in housing and employment, and on hate crimes legislation. If I were passing out grades, I’d have to give both Deeds and McAuliffe a B – they’re both better than average on our issues.”

“But the A student in this class is clearly Brian Moran,” Conrad concludes. “There’s no question that he ‘gets it’ – and that he’s willing to stick his neck out on behalf of our community. We should all hope for – and work for – his nomination and election as Virginia’s next Governor!”

And here is Brian Moran’s statement:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Moran Statement on Partisans Support

~ Fighting for Equality~

ALEXANDRIA – Brian Moran made the following statement after the Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbian Democratic Club recommended equality-minded voters support his candidacy for Governor. Moran has consistently been a fighter for equality over 13 years in the General Assembly and is the only candidate for Governor to consistently vote against, speak out against and campaign against the anti-gay Marshall-Newman amendment in 2006. At the first debate on Sunday, Moran was the only candidate for Governor willing to repeal that amendment if elected.

“Equality is a fundamental value that makes us Democrats,” Moran said. “I’m proud that the Virginia Partisans recognizes my career-long fight to break down barriers and ensure equality. Virginians know where I will stand on this issue because they know where I have stood. Leadership isn’t easy.”

Moran supports full contract rights for LGBT Virginians including domestic partnership benefits, hospital visitation rights, contract rights, and other benefits. Those were all made unconstitutional by the 2006 amendment. Moran also supports the inclusion of sexual orientation in Virginia’s hate crimes statute.

Brian Moran has a 20-year record of fighting for the people of Virginia. He was Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and a Delegate from Alexandria City and Fairfax County. Prior to that, he served as a prosecutor in Arlington County.

The three Democratic candidates for governor squared off in the first debate* of the season Sunday at The College of William & Mary. Hosted by The Farm Team and moderated by Andrea Mitchell of MSNBC, the crowd of 400+ was treated to 90 minutes of political posturing as the candidates presented their stances on a wide variety of issues.

[Cliff Notes version for those who don't want to read further. McAuliffe: "The answer is jobs." Deeds: "I stayed in the Senate." Moran: "Fighting for 20 years."]

For political junkies like myself – and all of those whose articles have been quoted ad naseum throughout the blogs – there was little new information. I suspect that any Republican may not have recognized the subtle differences between the candidates. But the differences were there – and, at times, not so subtle.

In talking to people after the debate, as expected, each candidate’s supporters thought their guy won. But it was the undecided voters that I was interested in speaking with and, believe it or not, I found a few in the crowd. All of them said that they felt more informed about the candidates after hearing them speak and a couple felt more inclined to support one candidate over another. One woman I spoke with told me that she had come in supporting one candidate (she didn’t identify which and I didn’t ask) and was leaving unsure about that support. Another woman said she has waffled between supporting two of the candidates and, after the event, was sitting firmly on the fence. (She was emphatic that she would not support the third candidate.)

(I wish I could convince one or more of the undecided voters to write about what they learned about the candidates. It certainly would make for more interesting reading.)

Overall, there were no major gaffes by any of the candidates. On the strength of one question, though, I give the edge to Brian Moran. The question was about the Marshall Newman amendment (check out video 2 below, at about the 5:40 mark). As a member of The Farm Team, we were given the opportunity to submit questions when we registered for the weekend meeting. I submitted that question, even though I knew already where the candidates stood. I know that Moran worked very hard to defeat the amendment. And we all know that Deeds has “grown” into his position. I even knew McAuliffe’s position on it, since I’d asked him about it in our interview. Nevertheless, I was surprised by the answers of all three.

Deeds said the state shouldn’t be involved in marriage. That he has progressed this far is amazing. McAuliffe was extremely disappointing, basically saying he would do nothing about the current state of affairs in Virginia – not even try. Come on, Terry. You’ve told us that if you are the nominee, you will help us get the six seats to gain the majority in the House. Are you really telling me that with a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate this issue is off the table?

Brian hit it out of the park, promising to work for the repeal of the Marshall Newman amendment. As much of a supporter of the rights of the LGBT community as Moran is, I was fully prepared for him to say he voted against the amendment and stop there. But he didn’t – and I couldn’t have been more proud to call myselff a Moran supporter.  Brian Moran will work for all Virginians and the proof was in that statement.

UPDATE: I forgot to explain the use of the asterisk on the word debate above. The word “debate” generally means give and take. Given that there were no rebuttals, you can’t really call this a debate. Rather, it was more like a joint appearance.

Oh, well. I guess some video is better than no video. Here is part 1.  The two questions covered in this segment are guns and the death penalty.

I will be there and will be posting updates on my Twitter account. If you haven’t followed me yet, now’s the time

Nice

For McAuliffe, the results are bound to be disappointing since he has raised nearly $5 million for the race and has far outspent his opponents to raise his name recognition in the state.

McAuliffe’s numbers against McDonnell have been fairly flat – going from 36% in the December poll, to 35% in the February poll, to 33% in this one. The spending he has done has had no effect. The Republicans with whom I’ve spoken are alternatively afraid and wishful of a McAuliffe candidacy: afraid because he has the ability to raise a lot of money (although the $80mil previously mentioned seems to not be forthcoming) and wishful because they believe it will draw a lot of out-of-state money for McDonnell.

Deeds, who has been frugal with his resources and spent much of the time since the last poll in the General Assembly, has stemmed the bleeding. From December to February, he went from 39% to 30%, the same share that he holds in this poll.

Moran has consistently been the closest to McDonnell. His 41% in December actually bested McDonnell, but his share also dropped off to 36% in February and further to 34% now.

Which brings me to the second point in the narrative (emphasis mine):

Virginia Democrats will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a June 9 primary and it is likely that the Democratic Primary competition is having an impact on the General Election polls. Each of the three Democratic candidates attracts a relatively low level of support from within their own party in the current polls. There are a correspondingly large number of Democrats who are undecided. This suggests that some Primary supporters of each Democrat are unwilling to admit they will vote for the Democratic nominee if their favored candidate is not selected.

A similar phenomenon was observed last year in the Democratic Presidential nomination contest. Many supporters of Hillary Clinton said during the primaries that they would not support Barack Obama against John McCain. Once Obama captured the nomination, he enjoyed a bounce in the polls.

That, I think, is the silver lining. Democrats will ultimately come together and support the nominee. But winning in November won’t be an easy task. History in Virginia is not on the side of the party of the president.  Come June 10, I fully expect that the Democratic nominee will still trail McDonnell, although not by the margins he currently enjoys.

We have a lot of work in front of us. I intend to do my part to get our strongest candidate – Brian Moran – to win the nomination.

I attended a Women for Moran event yesterday, with special guest Karyn Moran. (Yes, there were some guys there, too.) This was the first time I’ve heard her speak. I’m not easily impressed – but Karyn was awesome. She is a tremendous representative for Brian, with a command of the issues not often seen by candidates’ spouses.  Her style of speaking is quite engaging, and she is not afraid of eye contact, making the listener feel as if she is speaking directly to you. She is definitely an asset on the campaign trail and I look forward to hearing her speak often.

This secret weapon won’t be a secret much longer

The Moran children were with her as well. Loved the kids helping out! They were absolutely adorable as they walked around getting everyone to sign in.

Although yesterday’s event was free to attend, that doesn’t mean the campaign doesn’t need our help. Ladies, contribute to the Moran campaign through this special page set up for us. (Guys – feel free to use the page, too )

The poll

By now, everyone’s probably heard the latest polling news from DailyKos/Research 2000. The poll shows Moran at 24%, former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe at 19% and State Senator Creigh Deeds at 16%, with 41% of those polled still undecided. In a matchup with Republican Bob McDonnell, Moran performs the best: he trails McDonnell by one point (37-36), while both McAuliffe and Deeds trail by 7 (40-33 and 38-31, respectively). This poll closely tracks the results of the latest  PPP poll, which   showed Moran at 22%, McAuliffe at 18% and Deeds at 15%, with 45% undecided.

The money

Moran announced earlier this week that he had raised $800,000 this quarter, more than he raised in the last six months of 2008. The campaign has about $850K cash on hand. Campaigns have gotten ridiculously expensive, so help out if you can. Even a small donation helps.

• April 19th: Farm Team Debate in Williamsburg
• April 23rd: Virginia Education Association’s Convention Debate in Hampton
• April 28th: Sorensen Institute/Danville Register & Bee Debate in Danville
• April 29th: Huffington Post/Not Larry Sabato/Fire Dog Lake/Collegiate Times Debate in Blacksburg
• May 19th: Washington Post/Northern Virginia Community College Debate in Annandale

The Farm Team debate is a part of the latest statewide meeting. Details on that event can be found here.

In addition, they have approved some joint appearances.

• April 3rd: Northern Virginia Technology Council/Microsoft Forum in McLean
• April 21st: Crusade for Voters Forum in Richmond
• TBD: Democratic Club of Greensprings Forum in Greensprings

The key parts of the plan:

• Jobs creation tax credit. Small businesses that hire new employees and retain them for at least one year will receive a tax credit of $2,000 for each such employee.
• Elimination of corporate income tax on businesses making less than $200,000 per year. According to the campaign, the funds saved by small businesses could help keep them afloat and hire more employees.
• Economic strike force. Started by executive order under Governor Mark Warner, Moran intends to engage this group to focus on recruiting businesses to hard-hit areas across the Commonwealth.
• Federal stimulus watchdog. As governor, Moran will create a federal stimulus watchdog whose responsibility it will be to coordinate the federal dollars coming to Virginia and ensure that the money is being spent wisely.
• Make the earned income tax credit refundable. Virginia implemented an earned income tax credit in 2006 but, unlike the federal credit, it can only offset the tax, not create a refund. Moran says he will work to make the credit refundable.
• Minimum wage. Moran supports indexing the minimum wage to inflation, much the same way that Social Security is indexed.

There is no doubt that the people of Virginia are suffering, as are many around the country. Jumpstarting our stalled economy is on everyone’s minds. These proposals presented by Moran represent a tremendous effort to move Virginia in the right direction. Just as I have problems with the national plan, this one isn’t perfect, either. But it starts the conversation. And that’s a good thing.

The Moran economic recovery plan tour will roll across Virginia. Be on the lookout for a date and time near you.

Disclosure: I support Brian Moran for Governor

Powdered milk – how I hated that stuff! (For those who are unfamiliar – think water with a little white color to it. )

Three years ago, I sat down with Brian for a “get-to-know-you” session: I had done my homework on him and he on me. We have much in common:  we are months apart in age, that we both came from large families – he the 7th of 7 children, me the 7th of 9 – and we share working class backgrounds that shaped who we are today. Yes, we talked about policy – and we agree on a lot there, too – but it was my sense of Brian, the man, that made me decide that day to work to elect him the next governor of Virgina.

Won’t you join me?

Another chance for party change is in Virginia, where Republicans have already decided upon their gubernatorial nominee, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Democrats have a three-way primary between state Sen. Creigh Deeds, who lost to McDonnell four years ago by less than 400 votes; former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe; and former state Del. Brian Moran. There will be no primary run-off, so the winner could get a mere plurality. McAuliffe will almost certainly outspend his rivals, and that may be enough to buy a low-turnout primary, but his lack of experience in the Commonwealth’s politics troubles many. Most Democrats didn’t even know the native New Yorker lived in Virginia until he started running for the top job. The general election contest has not gelled to this point, but Democrats hope they can keep the strong Blue trend going in the New Dominion, while Republicans expect the usual off-year election snapback against the incumbent President (a consistent pattern in Virginia that stretches back to 1977). The incumbent Democratic Governor, Timothy Kaine, is also now the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, so he can be expected to pull out all the stops to prevent a severe personal embarrassment in his own state–which is how a Republican takeover in Virginia would be interpreted.

Sabato, a political insider, captured the essence of this race in this paragraph.  The biggest threat to Democrats in November, though, will be Democrats themselves. The primary is already shaping up to be a rather nasty affair:  witness the exchange yesterday between Moran and McAuliffe. That being the case, I have to wonder if there is any way for the Democrats to come together behind the winner after June 9. (After all, the blogosphere is still fighting the nearly three-year-old Miller versus Webb battle, not to mention Clinton v. Obama.)

The voters, though, are not nearly as engaged in this contest as they should be. Part of that is due to the lack of coverage by the MSM. The alternative media is going to have to step up and fill the void; otherwise, the candidate who spins his message the best – who may or may not be the best choice for Virginia – will win this thing.

Endorsing Moran today were:

• Sheriffs Bob McCabe of Norfolk and BJ Roberts of Hampton;
• Virginia Beach School Board Members Brent McKenzie and Todd Davidson;
• Commissioners of the Revenue Sharon McDonald of Norfolk and Ross Mugler of Hampton;
• City Councilman Bryan Collins of Chesapeake;
• Clerks of Court George Schaefer of Norfolk and Cynthia Morrison of Portsmouth;
• Delegates Kenny Alexander of Norfolk, Jeion Ward of Hampton, Paula Miller of Norfolk, Joe Bouchard of Virginia Beach, Bobby Matheison of Virginia Beach, Lynwood Lewis of Accomack and Kenny Melvin of Portsmouth; and,
• Former Delegates Mary Christian of Hampton and Flora Crittenden of Newport News.

Moran was previously endorsed by Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim, Newport News Mayor Joe Frank, Hampton Mayor Molly Ward, Portsmouth Mayor James Holly, Williamsburg Mayor Jeanne Zeidler, and former Virginia Beach Mayor Meyera Oberndorf.

Disclaimer: I support Brian Moran for Governor

If you are reading this through email or an RSS feed and do not see the video, please visit my blog.

Prior to the speeches, the Hampton YD officers were installed.

The young fellow on the far left is the son of Hampton Chair Gaylene Kanoyton. When giving him the oath, Gaylene was choking back tears. She’s raised a fine young man

The three gubernatorial candidates/surrogates were first to speak. They chose numbers to determine the order. First up was Dorothy McAuliffe, wife of Terry McAuliffe.

If you are reading this through email or an RSS feed and do not see the video, please visit my blog.

Video of Moran, Deeds and Shannon will follow as I get it processed. I did not record the LG surrogates.

It was a good event and thanks to Hampton Dems for hosting.

Based on the emails I have been receiving,  gubernatorial candidates Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds will be in attendance as will Terry McAuliffe’s wife, Dorothy.

Should be a fun event.

Also, today the Moran campaign announced that he has been endorsed by Williamsburg mayor Jeanne Zeidler.

Great job, Brian!

(If the player isn’t showing, you can listen here.)

And Kenton takes a look at the latest poll data.

Please Join

Mayor Paul Fraim                 Sheriff Bob McCabe
Jeff Breit                                        Dr. Rob Frazier
Richard Levin                                      Henry Light
Dr. Keith Newby                              Andrew Sacks
Peter Schmidt                                     Bruce Watts

For a Lunch Reception Honoring

Delegate Brian Moran
Democratic Candidate for Governor

Monday, March 9, 2009
12:00 p.m. -1:30 p.m.

Town Point Club
101 West Main Street
Suite 300
Norfolk, Virginia

Please RSVP at
www.brianmoran.com/townpoint, or by contacting
Steve Hurvitz at (703) 340-4497

This is a sit-down lunch with our next governor and the spots are filling up fast! Contribution levels are:

• Host: $2,500
• Sponsor: $1,000
• Patron: $500
• Supporter: $250
• Guest: $75

Checks should be made payable to Virginians for Brian Moran and mailed to 4154 Duke Street, Alexandria, Virginia 22304.

The entire press release is below the fold.

Moran Proposes Homeowners’ Bill of Rights

~ Bold Reform to Protect the American Dream ~

~ Plan Compliments Pres. Obama’s Federal Action ~

LOUDOUN – Today, standing in the driveway of a foreclosed home in suburban Loudoun County, Brian Moran proposed a “Homeowners’ Bill of Rights” to help homeowners stay in their homes and out of foreclosure, stop deceptive loans, and protect neighborhood home values. Moran is the first candidate for Governor to propose a plan to protect homeowners. There were 5,000 foreclosure fillings in Virginia last month alone. Moran’s proposal works in concert with the recent proposal from President Obama.

“Virginia’s families are getting squeezed. Our next Governor needs to keep fighting for the family dinner table, not the corporate board room,” Moran said. “The Bush Administration and politicians like them have spent all their time focused on Wall Street. I’m extending a lifeline to Main Street. This Homeowners’ Bill of Rights will help more Virginians live their American dream.”

THE HOMEOWNERS’ BILL OF RIGHTS (HOBR)

1. Ban the worst practices of deceptive lenders. The proposal bans predatory mortgage lending, where lenders trick homeowners into refinancing; stops deceptive mortgages, which strip people of home equity; prevents mortgage brokers and lenders from taking advantage of homebuyers; and prohibits pushing families into bad mortgages when the borrower qualifies for one that is less expensive. Virginia will join 25 states that have banned negative amortizing mortgages.
2. 90-day foreclosure delays. The plan expands default protection for delinquent homeowners to a 90-day period so people can catch up on payments. It will also freeze the foreclosure process for military families until 90 days after they return from deployment.
3. Expand education for borrowers. The HOBR will ensure that people know the dangers of subprime loans before agreeing to them, require mortgage servicers to send notice and information on alternatives, educate senior citizens about financial scams, and strengthen penalties for those that prey on our most vulnerable citizens. We will deploy a foreclosure prevention program with a hotline, website and other information sources to reduce foreclosures.
4. Protect neighbors and renters. Under this plan, Virginia would require that the owners of foreclosed homes (often banks) maintain properties to reduce blight and prevent other home values from declining unnecessarily. HOBR will also provide relief to renters by requiring 60-day notice upon the foreclosure of a rental building so renters can have adequate time to find new places to live.

“We can’t wait and expect the crisis homeowners are facing to go away,” Moran said. “Urgent action is needed now because the family dinner table is in jeopardy, literally. I’m going to fight hard to enact this Bill of Rights on day one as Governor.”

Moran’s plan compliments the initiative announced by President Barack Obama this week. President Obama’s plan focuses on providing much-needed new funding to stabilize home ownership and loan modifications for those on the verge of foreclosure. Moran’s plan focuses on regulatory reform, homeowner protection and expanded education programs.

“Brian Moran is building a sustainable plan for Virginia’s homebuyers and homeowners that is so practical and comprehensive that it just may work,” Rev. C. Douglas Smith from the Virginia Interfaith Center for Public Policy said. “We should all thank Brian for helping Virginia see some very practical ways of keeping our families stable and our neighborhoods together.”

FORECLOSURE FACTS

Statewide

• There were 5,000 foreclosure fillings in Virginia in January, 2009 alone.
• Virginia ranked 25^th in foreclosures in 2007 but has jumped to 11^th in 2008.
• By the end of 2008, more than 25,000 homes had been foreclosed.

• The second biggest surge of foreclosures nationally was in Woodbridge (next to the Marine Corps Base in Quantico), which spiked 414%.  Foreclosures in Norfolk increased 155% and foreclosures in the cities surrounding Norfolk Naval Base tripled.
• Nationally, foreclosures in towns where soldiers live are increasing at a pace almost four times the national average.

• Predominantly African-American neighborhoods had foreclosure rates that were three and a half times greater than predominantly white neighborhoods in Hampton Roads and five times greater than predominantly white neighborhoods in Richmond.

The full Bill of Rights is available at http://brianmoran.com/assets/2009/2/20/Home_Owners_Bill_of_Rights.pdf

Note: if you are getting posts through a feed reader, please visit my blog to view the video.

The group started gathering around 7:45am. Shortly thereafter, Moran arrived. After spending some time chatting with folks, things got underway. Moran spoke for about 15 minutes, touching on the issues that have become an important part of his campaign. He spent some time on his energy plan, emphasizing how he came to Virginia Beach two years ago to stand with then-mayor Meyera Oberndorf against offshore drilling. He explained his opposition to the Surry Coal plant. And he mentioned that he will be announcing a healthy Virginian plan later today.

He also took some questions from the audience. One of the more interesting questions was one in which he was asked to compare and contrast himself with his opponents in the June primary. Interestingly, Brian chose to make almost the exact same points that I had made earlier to my table mates, most of whom had never met Brian. He talked about how much respect he has for Creigh Deeds, and how the two of them have the experience of dealing with the Virginia legislature. He spoke of his roots in the Virginia community and how he had been chosen by his peers for leadership within the party. Of course, he couldn’t pass up a shot at Terry McAuliffe, mentioning that, in all of his years involved in politics, particularly in NoVA politics, he’d rarely run into McAuliffe before McAuliffe decided to run for governor.

Despite the McAuliffe dig, it was a good start to the day. I think Moran picked up some more support.

Disclaimer: I have endorsed Brian Moran for Governor

UPDATE: As they become available, I will add links to the JJ videos of the candidates.  Click on the candidate’s name below for the link to their video.

I headed  up to Richmond Saturday afternoon after a day of work. I entered the Richmond Convention Center from the back of the building. Once inside, I ran into some folks that I knew, who prompted me to head out front and see the display put on by gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. Apparently, I had just missed the parade as his volunteers were putting away a stack of signs. The large thingamajig holding up his name was there for all to see, along with signs on every pole. I guess if you got it, flaunt it.

I planned my arrival with around the start of the VIP reception, so after a few minutes, I headed upstairs. One of the first people to come into the room was Senator Jim Webb. As I had my niece, Janna, with me, I wanted to introduce her to the various electeds in attendance. (And yes, there was a test later ) The room quickly filled up, making moving around a bit difficult. I did have a chance to chat with a number of people, though, and if I start listing them all, I’m sure to leave someone out. One of the more interesting conversations I had was with Brian Moran’s campaign manager, Andrew Roos.

Shortly after 7, we were asked to head to the dining room. After last year’s event at the Alltel Pavilion, this year’s seemed much more intimate – and I mean that in a positive way. There was actually room to move around, although because we had gotten downstairs a little late, there wasn’t a whole lot of time to do so. I joined my host, LG candidate Rich Savage, at his table, where we were accompanied by his twin 15-year old daughters, Viola Baskerville’s two sons, and several others. My niece joined the other Savage table, whose guests included former Richmond mayor Rudy McCollum.

DPVA chair C. Richard Cranwell started things off by providing opening remarks. Richmond mayor Dwight Jones brought greetings and provided the invocation. Immediately afterwards, Congressman Bobby Scott gave his remarks,and then Delegate Lionell Spruill, Sr. introduced the keynote speaker, former President Bill Clinton. Missing from this was the annual parade of legislators, no doubt a nod to this being an election year and the ongoing issue of whether the JJ Dinner should be held during the session.

What was weird, though, was having the keynote address before dinner. I don’t know what the deal was here – perhaps he had another engagement. Nevertheless, it was worth the delay of dinner as Clinton did a great job, speaking from notes only to make sure he didn’t miss any names of folks to be recognized at the beginning.  He seemed extremely comfortable, reminding Virginia Democrats of the need to come together after the primary. That, along with his urging that Democrats to deal with HOW to do things as opposed to just throwing money at problems, were the two parts of his speech that stuck with me.

It was after his speech that dinner was served. Then the fun started. Each of the five candidates for LG produced videos that were shown at various points during the evening. I found Mike Signer’s a little strange. I mean – did he really intend to imply that the LG just sits around waiting for the Governor to die? In her video, Pat Edmonson said that she wasn’t there because she and her staff were helping out at a local shelter. But then I ran into her coming out of the room a little later. Savage’s video was funny, while Jody Wagner’s and Jon Bowerbank’s were informative.

In between those videos were the speeches of the gubernatorial candidates. Both Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran had videos of their own introducing them, while Creigh Deeds chose to have two of his children introduce him. McAuliffe was the first of the candidates to speak. I’ve seen him speak before and while nothing he said was new to me, he seemed nervous in his delivery, almost shouting as he read his speech. The little chant thing he had going on with the folks at  his 39(!) tables was too orchestrated for my liking.

From the standpoint of delivery, Moran gave the best speech that I’ve ever heard him give. He was relaxed, his tone even. As big a supporter of Moran as I am, though, I have to be honest: I quickly tired of the zingers directed at McAuliffe. (Recall, if you will, my similar disappointment with Ds attacking Ds at last year’s event.) It is possible to separate yourself from the pack – by your positions on the issues, by new ideas – without dissing your opponent. I had several people come up to me afterwards (not to mention a few phone calls on Sunday) that raised the same issue. I believe Brian Moran to be the best candidate for governor. And I hope he starts believing it, too.

As for Deeds’ speech – well, I missed most of it. I have heard that it was a good one, if a bit unfocused.

During the long evening (isn’t there a way to shorten these things?), we also heard from our three new Congressman and our Senators. Glen Nye introduced Jim Webb, Tom Perriello introduced Mark Warner, and Gerry Connolly introduced Governor Tim Kaine, whose remarks wrapped up the evening. After visiting with some other folks for a bit, I headed back to Norfolk.

~

Tons of other coverage of the JJ is on the net, including on The Washington Post blog, Blue Commonwealth, and the AP.

McDonnell leads Terry McAuliffe by 7 and Creigh Deeds by 9.

In December, Moran led McDonnell by 4 points, while McAuliffe trailed by 5 and Deeds was tied. That poll’s MOE was 4%.

Here’s a little video of Moran at the Arlington Dems yesterday.

~

In this poll, respondents were questioned about the doubling of the cigarette tax. 62% agreed that the tax should be doubled. Perhaps the Senate Finance committee should have waited on this poll before deciding against it.

McDonnell brought in $1.612 million in last six months, from 1,072 individual contributions, and raised more than $1 million since election day 2008.

And Brian Moran, one of three Democratic candidates for governor and my candidate, will report having raised more than $2 million in 2008.

Virginians for Brian Moran Campaign Chair Mame Reiley announced that the campaign raised more than $2.1 million between January and December of 2008, surpassing its fundraising goals. In the second half of 2008 alone, the campaign brought in an additional $754,899.  Throughout 2008, 95 percent of all donations and of all donors came from Virginia.

Fundraising reports are due to be filed today.