Equally interesting to note is that a 2013 gubernatorial candidate doesn’t rate a link in the VPAP clips. (Yes, I’m going to keep banging away at them for restricting content until they figure out how to open it up to be more inclusive.)

For all the polls and hype, according to the historical trends, this ought to still be Brian’s race to lose.

Even so, I was prepared for a Creigh Deeds victory. I figured somewhere around 38%-39% for him – certainly not over 40% – with the remainder being split between Moran and Terry McAuliffe. I was astonished at the nearly 50% that Deeds got and poured over the results. Nearly everywhere I looked, including the precincts in Norfolk, Deeds had won.  Given that I had spent Election Day traveling around the city, I had no sense that Deeds could pull it off here. If precinct presence was any indication, it looked like Moran. I ran into Deeds signs (with the WashPo endorsement on them) at a few precincts and only one that had a Deeds poll worker. (I did not visit every precinct in the city.) Same was true for the McAuliffe campaign – some signs, only one precinct with a poll worker.  The results in Ward 5 were even more astonishing: Deeds won eight of the nine precincts in this ward, which is represented by McAuliffe supporter, Councilman Randy Wright.

So what happened? As a Moran supporter, I think it boiled down to two things: negativity and money.

Negativity

I’m not a fan of negative campaigning – never have been, never will be. And anyone who has ever been the subject of such ultimately comes to the same conclusion. There is a way to point out differences between yourself and your opponent without resorting to that. I was unhappy with the negativity emanating from the campaign and expressed it over and over to no avail.

A successful candidate has to answer two questions: why not to vote for the other guy and why to vote for you. Negative campaigning only answers the first point, not the second.

While some took pleasure in defeating McAuliffe, they failed to realize that such negativity left the voters no choice but to go to Deeds. Saying no to McAuliffe without saying yes to Moran was a recipe for failure. Not only did it move the undecideds to Deeds, it moved some Moran supporters to him.  The trend lines from the polling were clear: Moran stayed pretty flat the whole time.  The goal here was to elect Moran, not simply to defeat McAuliffe.

To be honest, I hope that some of the folks who were involved in this “strategy” never have the opportunity to work in politics again.

Money

With money, a campaign can get out its message.  Without it, a campaign is sunk. Moran had money but used it the wrong way. Conventional wisdom says that 70% of campaign funds should be used for voter contact.  Paying consultants is not voter contact, and, unfortunately, that’s where Moran’s money went. It’s been discussed for at least two years that Moran was spending way more money than he should have been. At the end of the day, there was no way to combat the negativity coming out of the campaign because there was no money to do so.

Yes, I got some mail pieces from Moran. (None from McAuliffe or Deeds, I might add.) But when the war is being waged on TV and you aren’t there, a win is impossible. You can’t go into a gun fight with a knife. McAuliffe was on TV for what seems like forever. (I think he made a mistake by talking so much in his own commercials – that gave Virginians the opportunity to know that he wasn’t from here.) Deeds’ commercials were extremely well done, presenting a picture of a confident, experienced candidate.  He made a strategic choice to reduce staff to be able to go on TV. He parlayed The Washington Post endorsement into more money (take a look at the $5,000 and over contributions he received since the last reporting period ), which allowed him to not only stay on TV, but to go up in the very expensive, voter-rich NoVA market.

By contrast, Moran only went on TV in selected markets, and then with only negative commercials. Not only was he never able to introduce himself to the voters, the only thing they saw barely had him in it.

It’s not just about raising money – Moran raised more money than Deeds, at least through the last reporting period – it’s about using it wisely. Deeds did that, Moran did not

~

As I said Tuesday evening, we have our ticket. I’m not sure that I agree with AIAW that it was a pragmatic decision on the part of voters; rather, I think it was a choice predicated upon the options as they were presented. Political junkies knew all the details of the race, but I doubt that the average voters were so lucky.  Bob Griendling has an excellent post on the lack of newspaper coverage, one with which I agree. And as I said in this Bearing Drift podcast, the blogs simply cannot close this gap.

The Democrats have nominated a moderate ticket that should match up quite nicely against the Republican one. The focus will be on the top of the ticket – Deeds and Bob McDonnell – and separating the two in the minds of voters will be our task. Do I wish the ticket were more liberal? You bet. But at least we have a ticket that I can support.

On to victory in November!

At the end of the day, the lesson from this campaign ought to be (a) know you’re base, (b) know your opponent’s base, and (c) secure your base while making your opponent fight for his. Creigh Deeds’ statewide votershare closely mirrors his voteshare in the three NOVA Congressional Districts (8,10,11) and with slightly more than 1/3rd of the vote coming out of these three districts, that once again looks fairly decisive.

Brian’s strategy from the very beginning was to lock down wins in these three districts as the NOVA candidate. Terry’s entry into the race utterly terrified him because he was no longer the only game in town — but even if we assume that everyone who voted for Terry in those districts still would have voted for Brian, Creigh still would have locked down 47% of the vote in NOVA. Meanwhile Creigh carried his base of support in the 5th and 9th Congressional Districts handily, securing nearly 70% of the vote in a 3-way race. These two districts accounted for another 12% of the vote; in a Brian-Creigh heads-up race, Brian would have had to carry a sizeable chunk of the black vote in the 3rd Congressional District (another 11% of the voteshare) to be assured of a win. Considering Moran’s voteshare in this up-for-grabs constituency, that was probably unlikely. It’s not precisely clear who would have won the race if Terry had never gotten in, but it probably would have been a nail-biter — which in itself is remarkable, considering Brian’s election was a foregone conclusion two years ago.

From Terry’s perspective, he entered the race with a lot of fundraising potential, a lot of baggage (good and bad), a huge staff, and no base whatsoever to speak of. It’s tough to say what his strategy was to win this contest as a consequence. Tactically they were operating very well, but as Sun Tzu wrote, strategy without tactics is the longest path to victory, but tactics without strategy is the surest path to defeat.

He closed his comments with this:

This is a great day to be a Democrat; it’s a lousy day to be a Republican. Raw turnout numbers for this year’s primary totalled more than twice the number of primary voters who turned out for the Senatorial Dem primary in 2006. Credit to the folks on all three campaigns, Moving Virginia Forward, and the Democratic Party of Virginia — we are clearly much better organized going into this year’s election than we were back in 2005. The engine keeps chuggin’.

We’ve seen the effect of this type of thing before. The unfortunate part is that far too many voters will see the photo and not realize it isn’t real. Combine that with the words beneath (which are cleverly placed to make it appear that McAuliffe was the national co-chair of the Obama campaign) and the picture of McAuliffe and Congressman Bobby Scott on the reverse, and you can see how the piece could be effective.

Despite the fact that we all wish voters were better informed and wouldn’t fall for such stuff, truth is they aren’t and they do. (That’s a post for another day and one I’ve been meaning to write for a while.) Until and unless penalties for misleading voters are implemented, this kind of thing will get worse and worse.

And we wonder why more people don’t get involved in politics.

UPDATE:  As mentioned in the comments, the McAuliffe campaigns denies that the picture is photoshopped and emailed me a copy of the photo. I have done nothing to it except save it to my computer and upload it here.  (Click to enlarge.)

I’m no photography expert, so things like metadata and such are outside of my expertise. If anyone wants a copy of the photo, please use the contact link to email me.

(I’ve been in meetings all morning and am just getting to this.)

The entire press release is below the fold.

Contact: Dickie Atkins 888-640-5655, jpatkins@comcast.net

McAULIFFE ADS ARE MISLEADING, CHARGE SOME VIRGINIA FIREFIGHTER GROUPS

RICHMOND, JUNE 4—Terry McAuliffe is misleading the public when he says that “Virginia firefighters” endorse his candidacy, according to the Virginia State Firefighters Association. The 13,000-member VSFA is a group distinct from the union of paid firefighters which has endorsed McAuliffe, one of three contenders for the Democratic nomination for governor, to be decided in Tuesday’s primary election. The VSFA represents the largest number of firefighters in the state.

VSFA members were outraged with they reported that a McAuliffe TV ad, which aired on WSET (channel 13) and WDBJ (channel 7) broadcasting to Lynchburg, Roanoke and other areas, claimed “Virginia Firefighters Support this Ad” and “Endorsed by Virginia Firefighters.” They say that this tagline exploits the good name of “firefighters” when it implies, wrongly, that all firefighters are in agreement on this.

“I’ve been a volunteer firefighter and a member of the VSFA for years, and for all these years, I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Richard Harris, immediate past president and legislative co-chair. “The union represents only a small percentage of those of us who protect the health and safety of the citizens.”

The VSFA has filed a formal complaint with the State Board of Elections.

VSFA representatives say their organization does not endorse any of the candidates. McAuliffe will run against Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran for the party nomination. That winner will challenge Republican candidate Bob McDonnell in November.

But as this article points out, it wasn’t just Marsh/Deeds supporters who were upset. Richmond Mayor, the Rev. Dwight Jones, a supporter of Brian Moran, and Sen. Donald MacEachin, who has not endorsed in this primary, joined with Marsh last Friday in questioning the endorsement. MacEachin went so far as to call it “tainted.”

The endorsement was one of the topics of conversation at Del. Kenny Alexander’s picnic on Memorial Day. One of the attendees was from Richmond. Interestingly enough, he said something very similar to what Marsh said: that this process would “diminish the credibility” of the organization.

Could this be the beginning of the end?

Here in Norfolk, we had an organization called the Concerned Citizens for Political Education*. Founded by Evelyn Butts, one of the things that the organization produced was the Goldenrod Ballot. This guide ballot, which was printed on goldenrod-colored paper, was distributed to let black voters know who the organization had endorsed. (To give some idea of the strength of the organization, read through this 4th Circuit Court of Appeals opinion in which the group is cited. Or this oral history provided by Al Teich in which the goldenrod ballot is cited.) Although the organization no longer exists (as far as I know), the goldenrod-colored paper is still used (note that was what was used in the Sessoms campaign) as many try to tie their candidates to this storied organization.

There are a few things that are worthy of comment. First, if there were irregularities in the process, then the endorsement means little. And one has to wonder: will the endorsement carry any weight with the targeted voters?

More importantly, though: these organizations were started as a way of educating black voters, not just on candidates, but on the political process. The need for that education continues to this day – for all voters, not just black ones. The disappearance of these organizations has left a void not filled by any other source.

*This organization’s name was used by whoever produced a hit piece against me when I ran in 2005. Given that the organization was inactive at the time, the flier had to have come from someone who was familiar with the historic organization.

But since we are on the topic let’s set the record straight. All three of the democratic candidates for governor have been negative at one point or another. It comes in many different forms: radio-ads, blog posts, “on background” e-mails,  twitter updates and YouTube clips. They have all taken the opportunity, either themselves or through their closely associated supporters, to highlight differences in their policies and positions.

Yep. Like Nobles, I’ve seen it, too. And, truth be told, I’m none too happy about it.

Watching the devolution of Virginia politics over the past three years has been painful. No doubt that played a part in the decision of The Richmond Democrat to retire.  I’ve watched some really good people turn into virtual monsters. Is it any wonder, then, that the majority of folks simply tune out?

Is this the best we can do?

Democrats are, no doubt, feeling pretty good about our chances right now with President Obama’s approval ratings after 100+ days being pretty high. But November is a long way off, and a lot can happen between now and then. John Judis of The New Republic opines in this article that the picture may soon not be so rosy.

According to Gallup, 66 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing. But I expect that Obama’s popularity will begin to fall, even plummet, as the leaves turn brown. That’s not to say he is doing a bad job, but that the tasks he faces in fixing the economy remain daunting, and beyond resolution in his first year or, perhaps, even first term.

[...]

There is reason to be worried that we’re still a long way from seeing growth rather than slower decline. Much of a recovery will rest on a growth in consumer demand, but the most recent figures show a 0.4 percent decline in retail spending from March to April–and an 11.4 percent decline from the previous April. That’s not the stuff of growth.

[...]

As consumer demand continues to plummet and actual joblessness continues to soar, I expect Obama’s popularity to suffer.

This has been my fear all along. A dip in the popularity of the president (combined with dismal approval ratings of Congress) could very well tank the chances for Democrats – not only to win the governor’s mansion but also actually lose some seats in the House of Delegates. With that goes any chance for reasonable redistricting reform and Republican-drawn districts for the next ten years. Kiss goodbye Congressman Perriello and Congressman Nye, as those districts will be likely redrawn to more favor Republican candidates.

My eye has long been on the prize of redistricting reform. I thought we had a chance in 2008, with the General Assembly being under split control. But it didn’t happen, despite passage of legislation by the Democratically-controlled Senate. There simply are not enough constituent-minded Republicans in the House of Delegates to get bipartisan – forget non-partisan – legislation through.

Even under perfect conditions, I am not convinced that Democrats have the ability to pick up six seats in a single election cycle. I understand that the most seats that have ever changed hands is four. These are not perfect conditions. (Heck, I’m not sure that we could have picked up six seats had the House elections been held last year, when the blue wave washed over Virginia for the first time since 1964. )

The Democratic candidate for governor may very well, by fall, find himself needing to distance himself from the national party, to be what someone called the other day a “Virginia Democrat.” As Democrats look at the trio of candidates who would carry the party’s banner,  it would be wise not to look at where we are on June 9, but where we very well could be on November 3.

And at a candidates’ forum in December, in response to Moran’s claim to be the only candidate who had run a business and raised a family in Virginia, McAuliffe boasted of launching five businesses in Virginia.

It turned out that all five are investment partnerships, with no employees, registered to his home address in McLean.

At the Farm Team debate in Williamsburg, McAuliffe was asked by Brian Moran about three businesses (guess he didn’t know about the other two) that McAuliffe had registered to his home address. (Check the video in this post.) McAuliffe didn’t answer. I think we now know why. And while the memo from last night linked to a set of “facts” on the campaign website, even it does not address this issue.

Five businesses in Virgina. Zero jobs. And his platform is creating jobs? Heck, even I have created more jobs than Terry McAuliffe.

For those outside of the area, check your local public TV stations for airing dates.

Additional coverage of the debate can be found on the VEA website, in The Virginian-Pilot, and in The Daily Press. I think we can also expect a Daily Kos article from Arjun Jaikumar, who was also there and who covered the Farm Team event.  (By the way, in case you missed it, the video of the entire video from Williamsburg is available here.) I did not see any other bloggers there, so take what you read at some of the other blogs with a grain of salt: it’s campaign spin.

The format of the forum – note: this was not a debate – was that each candidate was given time for an opening statement, then asked a series of questions that had, at least according to one source, been provided in advance, and then a closing statement. The forum was conducted as a part of the VEA state convention, which was attended by about 800 delegates from across the state. For those who followed my Twitter feed last night,  I tried to update, in real time, what was happening there.

One of the most interesting things of the forum was who invoked Obama and who didn’t. One would normally expect that it would be the Democratic candidates who would talk about President Obama, but it was not. Republican Bob McDonnell repeatedly used the President’s name, saying he agreed with Obama on a number of issues. Of course, those issues happen to be ones with which most Democrats disagree, particularly school vouchers. But as usual, McDonnell, who has already shifted to the center for the general election, attempted to come off as a reasonable Republican. He even bragged about increased Virginia funding for education and conveniently left out that he voted against Warner’s 2004 budget which included $1.5B for K-12 education.

On the Democratic side, Creigh Deeds got the largest applause of the night with his line, “We can’t expect excellence if we don’t even pay for average.” Both Deeds and Moran emphasized their legislative records. All of the Democrats support the usual education issues, including pre-K funding, smaller class sizes and raising teacher salaries. McAuliffe, ever the showman, talked about raising teacher salaries not to the national average of about $52,000 but to that of our neighbors to the north, Maryland and Washington DC, where the salaries average about $60,000. Virginia’s teachers average about $46,000.

McAuliffe’s opening remarks got a lot of applause. Not unexpected when you promise everything that the educators want. After his remarks, I turned around and asked one of the convention delegates whether he had promised everything. She smiled and said no. She said, “He didn’t promise me a million dollars!”

I have to admit: this is one area where I have trouble with McAuliffe. On the one hand, he hides behind the legislature to say he won’t work for the repeal of Marshall-Newman. On the other hand, he makes all of these grandiose promises without considering the legislative environment in which he would have to operate. If there is anything that bugs me, it is inconsistency. And McAuliffe demonstrates that on a fairly regular basis. Constrained by reality, both Deeds and Moran don’t promise what they have no hope of delivering. (Of course, if Virginia allowed governors to run for re-election, there would be some accountability for such nonsense. But then that’s a post for another day.)

Talking with some of the convention delegates afterwards, it was interesting to note how many of them simply have not paid any attention to the upcoming primary. (Guess that explains the undecided voters in all the polls.) For many, this was their first opportunity to hear the candidates.  Each of the convention delegates was provided with literature on all of the candidates. Hopefully, this will be an awakening for them about June 9.

Every question to be asked of the candidates will come through the new media. You can submit a question via YouTube (please notify the organizers by email once you have posted your short video), Twitter,  or simply by leaving your questions in this thread.  Please leave your home city and state so that the organizers will know where the questions are coming from.

The debate will be broadcast by C-SPAN and a live feed has been promised.

So, if you have a question for the Democratic candidates for governor, leave them here and we’ll see if your question gets asked at the debate

UPDATE: Please get your questions in. The debate is coming soon.

The entire press release is below the fold.

UPDATE: I just received Moran’s statement on the Partisans support. It, too, is below the fold.

April 20, 2009

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

VIRGINIA PARTISANS RECOMMENDS BRIAN MORAN FOR GOVERNOR

The Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbian Democratic Club today recommended that equality-minded voters support Brian Moran in the Democratic Primary for Governor on June 9.

“All of the Democratic candidates are far superior to the Republican candidate on equality issues,” said Charley Conrad, Partisans President. “Whoever wins the Democratic primary will have our endorsement in the general election. But in the primary, it’s clear that Brian Moran stands head and shoulders above the competition in terms of support for equality and LGBT rights.”

In making the recommendation, the Virginia Partisans Board of Directors considered the candidates’ track record on issues as well as their current campaign positions. All three candidates – former Delegate Moran, state Senator Creigh Deeds, and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe – were asked to complete a questionnaire on issues of concern to the LGBT community, and each was interviewed by the Board.

“Brian Moran is clearly the most LGBT-positive candidate who has ever run for Governor of Virginia, ” Conrad noted. “Throughout his career, he’s been with us 100% of the time – not just in terms of his voting record, but also in the leadership positions he has taken in support of equality. And even now, during this campaign, he continues to push pro-equality positions, despite the fact that they may cost him votes downstate.”

While other nearby states are actively debating marriage rights or expanding civil union benefits, gays in Virginia are still reeling from the passage of the anti-gay-marriage Marshall-Newman Constitutional Amendment in 2006. How the candidates dealt with the issue at that time is informative:

· The two houses of the state legislature each had approximately 15 recorded votes related to the amendment proposal, including attempts to kill the proposal, to amend it, to change the wording on the ballot itself, and for final passage each of 2 years. Moran voted with the LGBT community’s interests on all of those votes. Deeds voted with us part of the time, but against us on final passage. McAuliffe wasn’t a member of the legislature so has no record to compare with.

· During the public campaign on the amendment, Moran was an early and vocal leader among elected officials in opposing it, and he campaigned statewide against it. Through his leadership and efforts, other top Democratic elected officials also followed suit, including Gov. Tim Kaine, former Gov. (and now Sen.) Mark Warner, and then-candidate Sen. James Webb. To his credit, during the public campaign, Deeds said he had made a mistake in voting for the amendment in the legislature and publicly campaigned for a “no” vote by the public. McAuliffe, a private citizen in Virginia at the time, says he voted against the amendment, but there is no record of him campaigning against it in the way the other two candidates did.

· During the current gubernatorial campaign, Moran continues his leadership on this issue, urging the amendment’s prompt repeal during candidate debates and forums and on the campaign trail. On this and other issues of importance to the LGBT community, Deeds says he is a “work in progress” and, indeed, his positions over time have evolved to be more and more progressive on equality issues. McAuliffe’s position has been that these issues shouldn’t be debated during the primary – preferring that the election be entirely about economic and management issues.

“On many issues, all three candidates are solidly on our side,” Conrad noted. “All three are with us on the need for gay-straight alliances in our schools, for anti-bullying efforts, for equality in housing and employment, and on hate crimes legislation. If I were passing out grades, I’d have to give both Deeds and McAuliffe a B – they’re both better than average on our issues.”

“But the A student in this class is clearly Brian Moran,” Conrad concludes. “There’s no question that he ‘gets it’ – and that he’s willing to stick his neck out on behalf of our community. We should all hope for – and work for – his nomination and election as Virginia’s next Governor!”

And here is Brian Moran’s statement:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Moran Statement on Partisans Support

~ Fighting for Equality~

ALEXANDRIA – Brian Moran made the following statement after the Virginia Partisans Gay and Lesbian Democratic Club recommended equality-minded voters support his candidacy for Governor. Moran has consistently been a fighter for equality over 13 years in the General Assembly and is the only candidate for Governor to consistently vote against, speak out against and campaign against the anti-gay Marshall-Newman amendment in 2006. At the first debate on Sunday, Moran was the only candidate for Governor willing to repeal that amendment if elected.

“Equality is a fundamental value that makes us Democrats,” Moran said. “I’m proud that the Virginia Partisans recognizes my career-long fight to break down barriers and ensure equality. Virginians know where I will stand on this issue because they know where I have stood. Leadership isn’t easy.”

Moran supports full contract rights for LGBT Virginians including domestic partnership benefits, hospital visitation rights, contract rights, and other benefits. Those were all made unconstitutional by the 2006 amendment. Moran also supports the inclusion of sexual orientation in Virginia’s hate crimes statute.

Brian Moran has a 20-year record of fighting for the people of Virginia. He was Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and a Delegate from Alexandria City and Fairfax County. Prior to that, he served as a prosecutor in Arlington County.

The three Democratic candidates for governor squared off in the first debate* of the season Sunday at The College of William & Mary. Hosted by The Farm Team and moderated by Andrea Mitchell of MSNBC, the crowd of 400+ was treated to 90 minutes of political posturing as the candidates presented their stances on a wide variety of issues.

[Cliff Notes version for those who don't want to read further. McAuliffe: "The answer is jobs." Deeds: "I stayed in the Senate." Moran: "Fighting for 20 years."]

For political junkies like myself – and all of those whose articles have been quoted ad naseum throughout the blogs – there was little new information. I suspect that any Republican may not have recognized the subtle differences between the candidates. But the differences were there – and, at times, not so subtle.

In talking to people after the debate, as expected, each candidate’s supporters thought their guy won. But it was the undecided voters that I was interested in speaking with and, believe it or not, I found a few in the crowd. All of them said that they felt more informed about the candidates after hearing them speak and a couple felt more inclined to support one candidate over another. One woman I spoke with told me that she had come in supporting one candidate (she didn’t identify which and I didn’t ask) and was leaving unsure about that support. Another woman said she has waffled between supporting two of the candidates and, after the event, was sitting firmly on the fence. (She was emphatic that she would not support the third candidate.)

(I wish I could convince one or more of the undecided voters to write about what they learned about the candidates. It certainly would make for more interesting reading.)

Overall, there were no major gaffes by any of the candidates. On the strength of one question, though, I give the edge to Brian Moran. The question was about the Marshall Newman amendment (check out video 2 below, at about the 5:40 mark). As a member of The Farm Team, we were given the opportunity to submit questions when we registered for the weekend meeting. I submitted that question, even though I knew already where the candidates stood. I know that Moran worked very hard to defeat the amendment. And we all know that Deeds has “grown” into his position. I even knew McAuliffe’s position on it, since I’d asked him about it in our interview. Nevertheless, I was surprised by the answers of all three.

Deeds said the state shouldn’t be involved in marriage. That he has progressed this far is amazing. McAuliffe was extremely disappointing, basically saying he would do nothing about the current state of affairs in Virginia – not even try. Come on, Terry. You’ve told us that if you are the nominee, you will help us get the six seats to gain the majority in the House. Are you really telling me that with a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate this issue is off the table?

Brian hit it out of the park, promising to work for the repeal of the Marshall Newman amendment. As much of a supporter of the rights of the LGBT community as Moran is, I was fully prepared for him to say he voted against the amendment and stop there. But he didn’t – and I couldn’t have been more proud to call myselff a Moran supporter.  Brian Moran will work for all Virginians and the proof was in that statement.

UPDATE: I forgot to explain the use of the asterisk on the word debate above. The word “debate” generally means give and take. Given that there were no rebuttals, you can’t really call this a debate. Rather, it was more like a joint appearance.

Oh, well. I guess some video is better than no video. Here is part 1.  The two questions covered in this segment are guns and the death penalty.

I will be there and will be posting updates on my Twitter account. If you haven’t followed me yet, now’s the time

For McAuliffe, the results are bound to be disappointing since he has raised nearly $5 million for the race and has far outspent his opponents to raise his name recognition in the state.

McAuliffe’s numbers against McDonnell have been fairly flat – going from 36% in the December poll, to 35% in the February poll, to 33% in this one. The spending he has done has had no effect. The Republicans with whom I’ve spoken are alternatively afraid and wishful of a McAuliffe candidacy: afraid because he has the ability to raise a lot of money (although the $80mil previously mentioned seems to not be forthcoming) and wishful because they believe it will draw a lot of out-of-state money for McDonnell.

Deeds, who has been frugal with his resources and spent much of the time since the last poll in the General Assembly, has stemmed the bleeding. From December to February, he went from 39% to 30%, the same share that he holds in this poll.

Moran has consistently been the closest to McDonnell. His 41% in December actually bested McDonnell, but his share also dropped off to 36% in February and further to 34% now.

Which brings me to the second point in the narrative (emphasis mine):

Virginia Democrats will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a June 9 primary and it is likely that the Democratic Primary competition is having an impact on the General Election polls. Each of the three Democratic candidates attracts a relatively low level of support from within their own party in the current polls. There are a correspondingly large number of Democrats who are undecided. This suggests that some Primary supporters of each Democrat are unwilling to admit they will vote for the Democratic nominee if their favored candidate is not selected.

A similar phenomenon was observed last year in the Democratic Presidential nomination contest. Many supporters of Hillary Clinton said during the primaries that they would not support Barack Obama against John McCain. Once Obama captured the nomination, he enjoyed a bounce in the polls.

That, I think, is the silver lining. Democrats will ultimately come together and support the nominee. But winning in November won’t be an easy task. History in Virginia is not on the side of the party of the president.  Come June 10, I fully expect that the Democratic nominee will still trail McDonnell, although not by the margins he currently enjoys.

We have a lot of work in front of us. I intend to do my part to get our strongest candidate – Brian Moran – to win the nomination.

• April 19th: Farm Team Debate in Williamsburg
• April 23rd: Virginia Education Association’s Convention Debate in Hampton
• April 28th: Sorensen Institute/Danville Register & Bee Debate in Danville
• April 29th: Huffington Post/Not Larry Sabato/Fire Dog Lake/Collegiate Times Debate in Blacksburg
• May 19th: Washington Post/Northern Virginia Community College Debate in Annandale

The Farm Team debate is a part of the latest statewide meeting. Details on that event can be found here.

In addition, they have approved some joint appearances.

• April 3rd: Northern Virginia Technology Council/Microsoft Forum in McLean
• April 21st: Crusade for Voters Forum in Richmond
• TBD: Democratic Club of Greensprings Forum in Greensprings

Yesterday afternoon I received a phone call from “Ross Marketing” saying they wanted to ask me a few questions about the Virginia governor’s campaign. When I asked what candidate they were representing, the caller said she “was just a volunteer” and didn’t know the candidate’s name. I told her this was an election violation and asked to speak to the supervisor.

I then spoke to a manager named Holly Timmerman, who refused to identify the candidate she was representing, refused to give me the address of her corporate offices, etc. When I informed her that this was a violation of Virginia election laws, and kept insisting on the information rather vehemently, she finally said that the poll was on behalf of the Terry McAuliffe campaign. She again refused to provide me with her corporate address.

I am in the process of reporting this to SBE.

[...]

If McAuliffe wants to be governor of Virginia, you’d think he’d make sure his campaign follows state law.

The law the writer referred to and which was  included in the snipped portion quoted above is § 24.2-959.

Both of these incidents (as well as others that have been relayed to me) indicate a pattern that there is a problem with the polling the McAuliffe campaign is doing. Perhaps it is the fault of the pollsters but the buck stops with the candidate. He should make sure that his pollsters are following the law.

(Of course, failing the follow the law in Virginia has consequences so insignificant it is no wonder that candidates rountinely violate them. But that’s besides the point.)

Disclosure: I support Brian Moran for Governor

Another chance for party change is in Virginia, where Republicans have already decided upon their gubernatorial nominee, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Democrats have a three-way primary between state Sen. Creigh Deeds, who lost to McDonnell four years ago by less than 400 votes; former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe; and former state Del. Brian Moran. There will be no primary run-off, so the winner could get a mere plurality. McAuliffe will almost certainly outspend his rivals, and that may be enough to buy a low-turnout primary, but his lack of experience in the Commonwealth’s politics troubles many. Most Democrats didn’t even know the native New Yorker lived in Virginia until he started running for the top job. The general election contest has not gelled to this point, but Democrats hope they can keep the strong Blue trend going in the New Dominion, while Republicans expect the usual off-year election snapback against the incumbent President (a consistent pattern in Virginia that stretches back to 1977). The incumbent Democratic Governor, Timothy Kaine, is also now the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, so he can be expected to pull out all the stops to prevent a severe personal embarrassment in his own state–which is how a Republican takeover in Virginia would be interpreted.

Sabato, a political insider, captured the essence of this race in this paragraph.  The biggest threat to Democrats in November, though, will be Democrats themselves. The primary is already shaping up to be a rather nasty affair:  witness the exchange yesterday between Moran and McAuliffe. That being the case, I have to wonder if there is any way for the Democrats to come together behind the winner after June 9. (After all, the blogosphere is still fighting the nearly three-year-old Miller versus Webb battle, not to mention Clinton v. Obama.)

The voters, though, are not nearly as engaged in this contest as they should be. Part of that is due to the lack of coverage by the MSM. The alternative media is going to have to step up and fill the void; otherwise, the candidate who spins his message the best – who may or may not be the best choice for Virginia – will win this thing.

Prior to the speeches, the Hampton YD officers were installed.

The young fellow on the far left is the son of Hampton Chair Gaylene Kanoyton. When giving him the oath, Gaylene was choking back tears. She’s raised a fine young man

The three gubernatorial candidates/surrogates were first to speak. They chose numbers to determine the order. First up was Dorothy McAuliffe, wife of Terry McAuliffe.

If you are reading this through email or an RSS feed and do not see the video, please visit my blog.

Video of Moran, Deeds and Shannon will follow as I get it processed. I did not record the LG surrogates.

It was a good event and thanks to Hampton Dems for hosting.

Based on the emails I have been receiving,  gubernatorial candidates Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds will be in attendance as will Terry McAuliffe’s wife, Dorothy.

Should be a fun event.

With Virginia facing unprecedented economic challenges, the roundtables will focus on a wide range of issues affecting the economy, including attracting new jobs to the commonwealth, education and workforce training, improving infrastructure, supporting small businesses, and investing in renewable energy technologies to create green jobs. When the economic policy roundtables conclude, McAuliffe will unveil a series of policy initiatives, including ideas collected from his discussions across Virginia.

The conversation on Monday centered around the needs of small businesses, in particular minority and women-owned small businesses, but also included a discussion of education and the role it plays, the Dillon Rule, and the prison population. McAuliffe asked the attendees what they would do if they were governor. Among the ideas floated were the need for minority business set asides, better access to capital, having those within government who manage the various departments that deal with business actually have some business experience themselves and the mentoring of young teachers. Some of the conversation dealt with local issues, such as the lack of recreational facilities for youth. A number of speakers spoke about their own efforts to help those in the community – giving convicted felons jobs, teaching young ladies, and so forth.

In between speakers, McAuliffe spoke about his own plans to increase teacher salaries to the national average, to pursue quality teachers, to do something about the Dillon Rule. He also talked about people having access to him as governor: he wants people to be able to pick up the phone and call him if you have an issue.

He certainly got an earful of ideas from this group. Oh yeah – and a cake! It was his birthday on Monday. Good thing they used the numeral candles instead of individual ones or we might have had to call the fire department (I can say that only because he’s older than I am.)

Tuesday, McAuliffe will be in Martinsville for a Jobs Creation Economic Roundtable.

UPDATE: As they become available, I will add links to the JJ videos of the candidates.  Click on the candidate’s name below for the link to their video.

I headed  up to Richmond Saturday afternoon after a day of work. I entered the Richmond Convention Center from the back of the building. Once inside, I ran into some folks that I knew, who prompted me to head out front and see the display put on by gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. Apparently, I had just missed the parade as his volunteers were putting away a stack of signs. The large thingamajig holding up his name was there for all to see, along with signs on every pole. I guess if you got it, flaunt it.

I planned my arrival with around the start of the VIP reception, so after a few minutes, I headed upstairs. One of the first people to come into the room was Senator Jim Webb. As I had my niece, Janna, with me, I wanted to introduce her to the various electeds in attendance. (And yes, there was a test later ) The room quickly filled up, making moving around a bit difficult. I did have a chance to chat with a number of people, though, and if I start listing them all, I’m sure to leave someone out. One of the more interesting conversations I had was with Brian Moran’s campaign manager, Andrew Roos.

Shortly after 7, we were asked to head to the dining room. After last year’s event at the Alltel Pavilion, this year’s seemed much more intimate – and I mean that in a positive way. There was actually room to move around, although because we had gotten downstairs a little late, there wasn’t a whole lot of time to do so. I joined my host, LG candidate Rich Savage, at his table, where we were accompanied by his twin 15-year old daughters, Viola Baskerville’s two sons, and several others. My niece joined the other Savage table, whose guests included former Richmond mayor Rudy McCollum.

DPVA chair C. Richard Cranwell started things off by providing opening remarks. Richmond mayor Dwight Jones brought greetings and provided the invocation. Immediately afterwards, Congressman Bobby Scott gave his remarks,and then Delegate Lionell Spruill, Sr. introduced the keynote speaker, former President Bill Clinton. Missing from this was the annual parade of legislators, no doubt a nod to this being an election year and the ongoing issue of whether the JJ Dinner should be held during the session.

What was weird, though, was having the keynote address before dinner. I don’t know what the deal was here – perhaps he had another engagement. Nevertheless, it was worth the delay of dinner as Clinton did a great job, speaking from notes only to make sure he didn’t miss any names of folks to be recognized at the beginning.  He seemed extremely comfortable, reminding Virginia Democrats of the need to come together after the primary. That, along with his urging that Democrats to deal with HOW to do things as opposed to just throwing money at problems, were the two parts of his speech that stuck with me.

It was after his speech that dinner was served. Then the fun started. Each of the five candidates for LG produced videos that were shown at various points during the evening. I found Mike Signer’s a little strange. I mean – did he really intend to imply that the LG just sits around waiting for the Governor to die? In her video, Pat Edmonson said that she wasn’t there because she and her staff were helping out at a local shelter. But then I ran into her coming out of the room a little later. Savage’s video was funny, while Jody Wagner’s and Jon Bowerbank’s were informative.

In between those videos were the speeches of the gubernatorial candidates. Both Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran had videos of their own introducing them, while Creigh Deeds chose to have two of his children introduce him. McAuliffe was the first of the candidates to speak. I’ve seen him speak before and while nothing he said was new to me, he seemed nervous in his delivery, almost shouting as he read his speech. The little chant thing he had going on with the folks at  his 39(!) tables was too orchestrated for my liking.

From the standpoint of delivery, Moran gave the best speech that I’ve ever heard him give. He was relaxed, his tone even. As big a supporter of Moran as I am, though, I have to be honest: I quickly tired of the zingers directed at McAuliffe. (Recall, if you will, my similar disappointment with Ds attacking Ds at last year’s event.) It is possible to separate yourself from the pack – by your positions on the issues, by new ideas – without dissing your opponent. I had several people come up to me afterwards (not to mention a few phone calls on Sunday) that raised the same issue. I believe Brian Moran to be the best candidate for governor. And I hope he starts believing it, too.

As for Deeds’ speech – well, I missed most of it. I have heard that it was a good one, if a bit unfocused.

During the long evening (isn’t there a way to shorten these things?), we also heard from our three new Congressman and our Senators. Glen Nye introduced Jim Webb, Tom Perriello introduced Mark Warner, and Gerry Connolly introduced Governor Tim Kaine, whose remarks wrapped up the evening. After visiting with some other folks for a bit, I headed back to Norfolk.

~

Tons of other coverage of the JJ is on the net, including on The Washington Post blog, Blue Commonwealth, and the AP.

McAuliffe says this is the third such call he has made. Prior calls, he said, had over 5,000 callers each participate. His last announcement was that there were about 3,800 people on the call.

I’ll be updating this post as the call continues.

McAuliffe conference call

I participated in a blogger conference call with Terry McAuliffe this morning. Nothing new for me except that conservatives Jim Hoeft and Norm Leahy were also on the call. Hmm – ya think either one of these guys are going to be voting in the Democratic primary?

Others writing about the call: Rick Howell, Aimee Fausser, Anonymous is a Woman

EV names new CEO

Equality Virginia has named Jon Blair the new CEO. For those who are familiar with Norfolk politics, Jon was the campaign manager for Senator Ralph Northam in 2007 and the field director for Del. Paula Miller in 2005. Most recently, he served as campaign manager for newly elected Congressman Martin Heinrich (D-NM). Jon is the first straight CEO of the organization.  Congrats to Jon!

Moran Inauguration Ticket Lottery

Brian Moran is holding a lottery for inauguration tickets.

This January 20^th, America will make history.  We’ve all worked so hard for so long to make this a reality – if you’re like me, you can’t wait.  Barack Obama knew that what mattered most were the grassroots – everyday Americans building a better future for themselves and their kids.

Unfortunately, there won’t be nearly enough tickets to the inauguration for every Virginia volunteer and grassroots organizer to go. That’s why I’m going to give away inauguration tickets to dedicated Democratic leaders who sign up on our website. If you sign up today, you’ll be entered into a drawing to win a ticket to President-elect Obama’s swearing in, and we’ll let you know the winners by January 16.

Head on over and sign up!

The campaign also released a schedule of townhall meetings and events to be held around the state as a campaign kick off. The events begin Wednesday, January 7 and are scripted thru January 15.

Rep. Brian J. Moran of Alexandria is the only one of three leading Democratic hopefuls who beats Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell in a straight match-up, 41% to 37%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey of Virginia voters. Five percent (5%) favor some other unspecified candidate, and 16% are undecided.

The survey has Sen. Creigh Deeds tied with McDonnell, while undeclared candidate Terry McAuliffe trails by 5 points.

The telephone survey of 500 likely voters took place December 4 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.  That puts the race in a virtual tie amongst all of the contenders.