When I profiled the candidates in Ward 5, I mentioned that it was difficult to find out anything about the challenger, Michael Osburn. Anecdotally, I heard a couple of stories about him. One was from a candidates’ forum. The moderator said that Osburn had not responded to their invitation and wasn’t there that evening. A man stood up in the back of the room and said “I’m here.” It was Osburn.
It seems that Osburn has run a low-key but somewhat effective campaign against Wright. In its endorsement of Wright, the Pilot pointed out that Osburn would get the anti-Wright vote. When a self-funded, virtually unknown candidate is pulling 45% of the vote as I write this, I’d say there is a lot of anti-Wright sentiment in Ward 5.
I’m not so sure that Osburn ran an “effective” campaign. Rather, just by having his name on the ballot, he became a vessel for a lot of pent-up anger toward the current city establishment, which many voters perceive as a source of ham-handed redevelopment, sweetheart developer deals, and massive property tax increases. Randy Wright started out 25 years ago as an outsider playing on just those sentiments, and is now perceived as the coopted insider. What goes around comes around, I suppose.
Turnout in Ward 5 was up about 80 percent from the 2002 race, when Wright was unopposed. It’s notable that over a third of Dan Montague’s votes in the Mayor’s race came from the ward, probably mostly from the same people.
Perhaps “effective” is too strong a word. Osburn benefitted greatly from the anti-Wright sentiment. But I’m not so sure that translates into an overall pent-up anger towards the establishment. Had that been the case, Dan Montague would have picked up more votes city-wide. The fact that over a third of his votes came in Ward 5 and that turnout was so much higher in that ward indicates a certain dissatisfaction with Wright.
Osburn himself seemed out of touch with the anti-Wright sentiment in Ward 5, saying he regrets not having worked harder. Had a real candidate been in place in Ward 5, Wright probably would have lost.