The field is now set for the November general election of Virginia’s representatives in Congress. My thanks to all who stepped up and offered themselves to represent us.
I agree with those who expect this to be a blowout. That doesn’t mean, though, that there’s not important work to be done to ensure Kaine – former Richmond city council member, former Richmond mayor, former Lt. Governor of Virginia, and former Governor of Virginia – is returned to Washington to continue his good work on behalf of us.
Pickup opportunities for Democrats in Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts abound in this Year of the Woman. Currently, Republicans hold eight seats while Democrats hold three. Already, pundits are predicting anywhere from two to five seats to flip.
Here’s where we are (Cook PVI¹ in parenthesis):
- CD1: Vangie Williams versus incumbent Republican Rob Wittman (R+8)
- CD2: Elaine Luria versus incumbent Republican Scott Taylor (R+3)
- CD3: Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott is unopposed (D+16)
- CD4: Incumbent Democrat Donald McEachin versus Republican Ryan McAdams (D+10)
- CD5: Leslie Cockburn versus Republican² Denver Riggleman (R+6)
- CD6: Jennifer Lewis versus Republican³ Ben Cline (R+13)
- CD7: Abigail Spanberger versus incumbent Republican Dave Brat (R+6)
- CD8: Incumbent Democrat Don Beyer versus Republican Thomas Oh and independent Mike Webb (D+21)
- CD9: Anthony Flaccavento versus incumbent Republican Morgan Griffith (R+19)
- CD10: Jennifer Wexton versus incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock and independent Nathan Larson (D+1)
- CD11: Incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly versus Republican Jeff Dove, Libertarian Stevan Porter, and Whig Peter Carey (D+15)
¹PVI = Partisan Voting Index. Means that in the previous two presidential elections, this district’s results as compared to the national average. For example, R+8 means this district’s results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average.
²Open seat. Incumbent Republican Tom Garrett is not seeking reelection.
³Open seat. Incumbent Republican Bob Goodlatte is not seeking reelection.
To give you some sense of how others are seeing these contests, here are the race ratings for each district from three different ratings sources as of this writing (information from Ballotpedia):
To be honest, none of this – PVI, ratings – really means much. Winning elections boils down to who gets more of their voters to the polls. Successful campaigns require time, money, and people.
Click on the candidate’s name above, contact the campaign, and help any way you can.