With more than 90% of the vote counted as I write this, Jim Webb is ahead by more than 8,000 votes. I do not see how Harris Miller can make up the difference. My congratulations to Mr. Webb. My condolences to Mr. Miller.
There are some things to be learned from this primary. First, voter turnout outside of Northerm Virginia was pretty low. Miller won a lot of those areas but the totality of votes in NoVA is just too much to overcome. I wrote earlier about NoVA making decisions for the rest of the state. Vote totals for the seven cities in Hampton Roads so far is 21,765 (numbers in brackets are precincts reporting):
- Chesapeake – 3,229 (52 of 52) 2.51% turnout
- Suffolk – 1,152 (23 of 23) 2.43% turnout
- Portsmouth – 2,737 (31 of 31) 4.76% turnout
- Hampton – 3,319 votes (33 of 33) 4.25% turnout
- Newport News – 2,744 votes (44 of 47) 2.63% turnout
- Virginia Beach – 7,376 (83 of 86) 2.81% turnout
- Norfolk – 4,454 votes (57 of 57) 4.21% turnout
Miller won all of these cities except Virginia Beach, where at this writing, he is down by 286 votes. By contrast, Fairfax County alone had 28,370 votes with about 80% of the precincts reporting. In order for Hampton Roads to compete with the numers generated by NoVA, we have to turn out at a much higher rate.
Secondly, there is obviously a disconnect between what D’s in this part of the state want versus what D’s in NoVA want. As long as they can control who the nominee is, will this mean continued losses? I look back to the 2005 LTGOV primary and see a similar result. We all know how that turned out.
Finally, I worry about the ability of Democratic candidates to appeal to the black base. When I saw the turnout numbers I reported earlier at Rosemont, I was sorely disappointed. There are some 3,000 registered voters at that precinct, which I believe is the largest in the city, and only 106 votes were cast there. There was no presence by either candidate (also true at all the precincts I visited in Norfolk, except Barron Black). I stood outside and talked to a few voters as they came up. A couple didn’t even know who the 2 candidates were! The Democratic party has taken this vote for granted for too long and the Republican party is making inroads with such issues as gay marriage. The lesson here is that Mr. Webb will need this vote in November if he wants to beat George Allen. The question is will black voters turn out.
With these in mind, I hope that all Democrats can unite with the common goal of winning in November.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I did an analysis of turnout in the 2001 LG/AG primary, which was the first statewide primary we’d had for a while. A few things I remember from that, and how they apply here:
1) First, don’t look at primary turnout relative to the registered voter total. It’s more meaningful to look at turnout among likely Democrats, because, in general, there won’t be that much crossover or independent voting. (In 2001, I averaged the 2000 votes for Gore and Robb, which is still way high since they both had lots of indy support. Still, that should average out across jurisdictions, so the proportions work.)
2) Based on that, turnout will be highest in the candidates’ home cities/counties. Miller and Webb are both based in Northern Virginia, so that’s where people showed up. In 2001, turnout was fairly humdrum there because all the candidates were from downstate. Whitt Clement produced the highest relative turnout in the state in his Danville/Pittsylvania base, and synergies between Kaine and McEachin in metro Richmond may have won it for both of them. Norfolk’s 2001 turnout was about 70% higher than today’s due to Jerrauld Jones’ name on the ballot.
3) More contests = more votes. The next highest 2001 turnouts were in Portsmouth, where there was a rather bitter Commonwealth’s Attorney primary that day, and across the 4th Congressional District, where people showed up a week early for the Forbes-Lucas special election. With those boosts plus the two statewide races, total turnout for the 2001 primary was about 5% higher than today’s. The only Democratic race sharing ballot space with Miller-Webb today was in the 11th CD, again boosting the Fairfax vote.
4) In 2001, the lowest relative turnouts in the state were, surprisingly enough, in the outer suburbs of DC, the Loudoun-Fauquier-Prince William-Stafford ring. At the time, I suspected that people out there were averse to risking their daily commutes for a mere primary. I need to follow up on today’s numbers to see if that holds (and go back to 2005, too).
"More contests = more votes"
That's why I expected the overall turnout to be lower.
Vivian –
I’ll have some analysis up tomorrow about the NOVA disconnect…
But you’re reading too much into it.
The campaigns really didnt’ put much effort into any other outside of NOVA.
They fought it out in NOVA over the ideas and merits of their campaign against Allen. And Webb won BIG.
In all of the other areas, neither campaign really played. HOWEVER, Miller sent out so much mail and so much media, that he carried these areas by default. If Webb had matched his mail in these areas, we’d see similar results.
Let me add one more thing.
You question Webb’s ability to get out the black vote.
If Webb has problems in November, we can blame Miller for his “Webb is racist” whisper campaign.
End of story.
Actually, I’d say Miller did make a serious effort in Hampton Roads. He made a number of personal appearances here and worked the local party organizations hard. He did all the basic tactical stuff right, but when it came right down to it, he just wasn’t that appealing a candidate. Webb didn’t have to do that much to beat him.
That’s probably true.
VC: I disagree with your perception of the whisper campaign. Again, outside of NoVA and the internet, that information just didn’t make it out. And as Randy said, Miller’s campaign did indeed work Hampton Roads. I believe he was here about 15 times over the course of the campaign.
Maybe a “whisper campaign” is the wrong word. But there was definitely an effort to use imagery and endorsements to convince african americans that webb was an all out racist…that’s one of the things that really got the Webb bloggers going this year…
VC, get out of the rarified air of the internet and NoVA for a minute. I saw nothing substantive down here about it. As a matter of fact, in today’s article in the Pilot, it is the Webb campaign that makes mention of it.
The RTD ran almost 5 articles on Affirmative Action. Miller put it in a mail piece. The Post wrote a couple of articles as well…
Neither the RTD or the Post are in Hampton Roads. And how many people in HR got the mail piece?
Vivian, in case its not already clear after this race, Northern Virginians in general (not just talking about Democrats now) feel VERY VERY strongly about how the rest of the state has made decisions to our collective detriment for decades now–particularly on transportation (yowzee–explosive issue) and education funding.
We do need to brdige these gaps as Democrats, and as residents of this great Commonwealth.
Vivian,
I would just like to know how it is that the Republicans are making inroads into the black community based onsuch social and irrelevent agendas as gay marriage. The blacks were taken advantage of and prevented from voting, along with poor people and women in our long history and now they want to see the same thing happen to other american citizens. That makes no sense whatsoever.
As for the electionresults it is clear to me that Webb won because of the NOVA numbers and white voters in such counties as York County, James City County, and Newport News. Remember Webb only lost Newport News by 200 votes. The reason the blacks in the cities you mentioned voted Miller was clear, their leaders in the community never took the time to consider Webb because the leaders considered Miller a traditionalist. Well I am labor and it seems to me that the black leaders in our area never considered us when they were making their endorsements, if you would have there might have been a change in thoughts and knew Webb was the better choice for your constituents. Go Jeion Ward and Mamie Bacote for not endorsing either.
Doug – I understand what you’re saying here, because when it comes to transportation, we are in the same boat as NoVA.
Gene – it is happening. Check out this, this, and this. There’s plenty more out there.
I don’t think the black vote turned out for the most part because there was so little outreach done. If you look at the Norfolk precincts, it was the white voters that turned out. The black precincts had horrible numbers.
I don’t think there’s any question that Webb needs to make a more concerted effort to connect with the black base in Hampton Roads. If he’s given the opportunity I suspect he’ll make a good case for why he should be trusted–and why the support can prove to be a difference maker come November.
It’s not entirely true that NoVA alone carried this one for Webb. The margin was 11,000 and I believe 11,900 of that margin came from NoVA. If you disregarded the NoVA vote altogether it means that Miller would have won the remaining 100,000 votes by about a 900 vote margin. Webb also played very strongly along the Blue Ridge. This vote too is going to be essential in November.
The key here is I see it is to expand the Democratic base within the state. Not to trade one constituency for another. If we work this one out right, we can ensure that a guy like George Allen is never elected to a federal office again thanks to Virginia support.