New Poll: Kellam 51%, Drake 43%

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Drake Kellam Poll

A new poll, by Majority Watch, shows Democratic challenger Phil Kellam leading Republican incumbent Thelma Drake 51% to 43%, with 6% undecided. The poll was conducted August 27-29 with a sample size of 1,021 and a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Here is what the website said about the methodology for this poll:

The Majority Watch polls, a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, comprise polls conducted using interactive voice recognition (IVR) technology over the telephone. In each of 30 contested U.S. House Congressional districts (CDs), a representative sample of about 1,000 voters were selected from voter lists provided by each state. The interviews were conducted August 27-30, 2006. Results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and geographic location in the CD. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all voters in a CD were polled.

Looking at the crosstabs, I can only assume that this was not the 3-question poll I participated in last week 😦 This one has a lot more information in it than I was asked.

The crosstabs also reveal that Kellam may be in even better shape. When looking only at likely voters (821 of the 1,021 people polled), Kellam leads 54% to 41%.

Some other interesting tidbits from the crosstabs:

  • Only 22% of Republicans support Kellam. I’m a bit surprised that this number isn’t higher since Kellam has been actively courting such support but it is closer to what I have been hearing from Republicans I know around the area.
  • 90% of those who approve of Bush (about 38%) are supporting Drake. 85% of those who disapprove are supporting Kellam. It appears that Kellam is riding the wave of voter discontent with the Bush administration.
  • Both women and men favor Kellam over Drake. White voters are evenly split between the two. Nonwhite voters favor Kellam by a huge margin – 59% to 19%, perhaps due to the fact that 60% of the nonwhite voters consider themselves Democrats.

I suspect the Kellam camp will be quite happy with these numbers.

h/t to Rob over at RK

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33 thoughts on “New Poll: Kellam 51%, Drake 43%”

  1. This is particularly exciting news. The only female wingnut in the house more noxious than Miss Thelma is Marilyn Musgrave of Colorado. It would be so wonderful to be rid of them both at the same time. I can’t wait to dance, shout, and speak in tounges on election night if it happens.

  2. Pingback: 750 Volts » Blog Archive » CD2: KELLAM SURGES TO LEAD

  4. I noticed that too, but I didn’t say anything because I thought maybe there were going to vote more this year or something. Young people are usually unreliable, yet they were 16% of those polled.

    Insider, let them rejoice in their tainted poll.

  6. One more thing: look at the crosstabs on likely voters. 82% white, 17% black. And, 33% aged 18-44 versus 45.5% from 2002.

    Y’all gotta get off the front page summary into the real numbers 😀

    Edit: is that why you pulled your post on this? 😆

  8. As long as the sample is wieghted to correct for the district, which according to their press it was, then it’s a mute point.

    Way to go Kellam and 2nd District Dems! You’re on the way.

    Now, if only we could use the Davis and Wolf MUTINY against NoVA in getting Kaine to back down from choosing the Metro tunnel in Tysons, we’d get rid of three Virginia GopEvils.

  9. Is there anyone out there who was polled? One thousand completed calls and no one knows about this? I know someone else who was polled and only had 3 questions. This whole thing is BS. And who the hell are these pollsters? No one has ever even heard of these people. I hope the Kellam people believe this. It will only add to the sense of disillusionment when they lose by 10 points.

  11. TimeKeeper – I strongly suggest you take a look at the links in the poll to the people who did it . From the RT Strategies website:

    A bipartisan public affairs opinion research and polling organization, sponsor of the National Omnibus Poll, and partners of the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll.

    And 1000 calls is about a normal sample size.

    This is legit.

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