Included in the latest SurveyUSA poll is a question on the Marshall Newman amendment, Question 1 on the ballot. SurveyUSA changed its methodology when asking this question:
SurveyUSA has gone from reading a summary of the ballot question to, today, reading no summary at all… It is wrong to infer that the number of “undecided” Virginians has increased, and it is wrong to infer that support for the measure has either increased or decreased since SurveyUSA’s 9/13/06 poll. Such conclusions cannot be drawn. The two different approaches SurveyUSA has used to ask about Question 1 are designed to measure different things. Today’s release shows that 52% of Virginians do not yet have a clear understanding of what Question 1 will do to the Virginia Bill of Rights, and may be persuadable on this issue. (emphasis added)
The question asked was “Also on the ballot is Question 1, concerning marriage. On Question 1, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not yet certain how you will vote on Question 1?” The results:
- 29% – Certain Yes
- 19% – Certain No
- 52% – Not certain
The results back up what we experienced last weekend at the rally. As we were urging people to Vote NO, a number of them said Vote NO to what.
We have an opportunity to defeat this horrible amendment by informing people of its consequences. By all means, volunteer and contribute today.
Technorati Tags: Marshall Newman Amendment, Marriage Amendment
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Viv, #1, thanks for coming to my party last Saturday. I know you were engaged in various conversations with folks as was I. I had a nice chat with my husband’s co-workers. I think I have them each voting NO. That’s what it is going to take! We’ve got to keep talking to people about it. I’ve got everybody in my office voting NO. They will each be getting their respective spouses to also vote NO. And I think between your conversations and mine, all the soccer parents there will be voting NO.
Can you send me a copy of the letter you sent to your council members? Not that I’m lazy, but I’m so busy. I’d like to model after your letter with a letter of my own to send to VB City Council members.
I don’t know if everyone in your audience has seen our ad, but it is really great. We need to get that ad everywhere. And the only way to do so is to send them $. I just sent them $25 (also sent Webb $25 too). That’s all I’m good for at the time, but hey….
Good to hear that we’ve got some NO voters 😉 That’s what it takes: constantly talking to people about the amendment. And contributing whatever we have to defeat it.
I didn’t send a letter – I emailed one of them and I will be emailing the rest this weekend. All I said was that the two councils (Falls Church and Arlington County) had made resolutions urging their constituents to Vote NO, included the links and asked that they consider doing the same.
I talked to a guy in a grocery store parking lot up here in NOVA the other day and he was happy to see my Dem bumper stickers. We started talking politics and he inquired what the Young Dems were doing. I told him about a “Vote No” rally at George Mason and he asked “Vote No, what is that?” When I explained what the implications were of the amendment, he shook his head, thanked me for the information, and asked where he could get more info to stop this from being enacted.
The moral of the story is that a lot of people still have no clue what this amendment will do to people in our commonwealth. Some people will just read the first paragraph without considering the second. Let’s do what we can to bring down this hateful amendment and take back Virginia for everyone not the few.
I got my first call today about the marriage amendment from a family organization. The churches and conservative family groups will certainly be getting the word out over the next month. The Catholics began this weekend with flyers to everyone. It will also be mentioned at church services every Sunday from now until Election day. The church goers will definitely be voting for the amendment. Falwell’s church alone has 27,000 members. A large percentage of Virginia voters are Southern Baptists. Another large segment are Catholics.
Like abortion, talking to people about gay marriage is rarely effective. If they disagree with you, they aren’t going to tell you. People don’t want to argue about what they consider to be moral issues. Debating religion and morals never ends well.
Defeating this amendment is unlikely. Such amendments have passed in every state where they’ve been on the ballot, including rather liberal Oregon. And they’ve helped every republican pol who has been on the ballot with the amendment.
Just my thoughts……………
I appreciate your thoughts. The issue, as I and others see it, is not about gay marriage. Whether or not the amendment passes, gay marriage will still be illegal in Virginia, just as it has been for 30+ years. When you look at the text of the amendment, in particular the second paragraph, you get a real sense that this amendment reaches out and affects all unmarried relationships, whether that be business relationship (such as partnerships) or personal ones. The consequences of such far-reaching language unknown. Not until court challenges are made will the judges tell us what the effects are. We are forcing judges to be activists.
Had the amendment stopped at the first sentence, I would agree that the passage was assured. But it does not – and even the lawmaker for whom the amendment is named, Marshall, argued that it was poorly worded. For that reason, the amendment deserves to fail.
It would have been a much more useful survey had they asked the same question about questions 2 and 3:
On Question 2, about the limitations of Powers of the General Assembly, will you vote YES or NO, or are you undecided?
On Question 3, about Taxation and Finance, Exempt Property, will you vote YES or NO, or are you undecided?
The answers to these questions say nothing about how persuadable someone is on an issue, but rather how informed he is about the question.
Jack – they did say may be persuadable. And yes, I think they should have polled on the other questions. I haven’t seen any polling on those.