Rasmussen: Allen 49% Webb 43%

On Monday, Rasmussen released its latest poll of the race between incumbent Republican senator George Allen and the Democratic challenger Jim Webb. The poll was conducted 9/28 thru 10/1 and surveyed 750 likely voters. This is the third poll released in the last week, with the SurveyUSA poll showing Allen leading 50% to 44% and the Mason-Dixon poll showing a tie at 43% each.

I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen more written about the Rasmussen poll. Perhaps it is because it came on the heels of the Mason Dixon one showing the candidates tied. (Of course, the M-D poll was outed early – it was supposed to have been released Monday as well.) I think there is some good information in this poll.

Voter profiles
A look at the crosstabs of the Rasmussen survey reveals who is likely to vote for each candidate. Allen voters are conservative Republicans, mostly male, white and more than half are married. Allen captures 78% of the evangelical vote and more than half of the protestant and Catholic vote. Webb voters are liberal Democrats (although he also captures a majority of the moderate vote), more women than men (although not a majority of the women surveyed), unmarried and have no religious affiliation. Not surprising, 90% of Allen’s supporters have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 93% of Webb’s supporters have the opposite opinion. Thirteen percent of Democrats say they are voting for Allen, while 11% of Republicans say they are voting for Webb.

The undecideds

Overall, five percent of those survey were undecided. While only 3% of Republicans were undecided, 7% of Democrats were. Men mirror the Republican group, with 3% undecided, while 8% of women are undecided. While only 4% of of whites were undecided, a whopping 14% of blacks were.

On the issues

Forty-five percent of those surveyed named national security as the number one issue, with 33% saying Iraq. Allen voters were more concerned with national security: 76% of them named this their top issue. A majority (57%) of Webb voters named Iraq.

On the issue of women serving in combat, 58% said such service should be allowed, with 31% saying no. Men and women roughly agreed/disagreed at the same rate. Black voters answered this question almost identically to conservative voters, with 42% saying yes and 46% saying no.

Several questions were asked on the issue of race. Asked if most Americans are racist, 23% said yes and 61% said no. Allen voters mirrored the GOP voters, with 15% saying yes. Thirty-one percent of the Webb voters, influenced by the 40% yes of the black voters, answered this question in the affirmative. Interestingly, 64% of the “Other” voters (those not voting for Allen or Webb) answered yes.

Black voters

Black voters constitute about 20% of the voters in Virginia. This poll shows Allen capturing 22% of the black vote, Webb getting 61% and, as mentioned above, 14% undecided. Twenty-four percent have an unfavorable opinion of Webb, and 14% are unsure. Exactly half of black voters believe Webb’s statement that people in the South used the n-word, with 52% believing that Allen used the slur as a young man and only 30% believing that Webb used it.

My take

Much of what was seen the Rasmussen poll data was echoed in the SurveyUSA poll. It is no surprise, then, that the overall results are similar. Without the crosstabs, I cannot fully comment on the Mason-Dixon poll, but it appears to be the outlier of the three.

This race is going to be decided on turnout. Allen continues to appeal to his base, despite his recent troubles. With the added incentive of the marriage amendment, I believe his base will turn out. Allen just needs to stay out of trouble. Another incident and he’s toast.

I remain concerned about Webb’s position with the black community, the only real Democratic base remaining. He simply cannot win without it. With a little less than 5 weeks to go, increasing his favorables here and turning out the vote should be a priority.