On Monday, Rasmussen released its latest poll of the race between incumbent Republican senator George Allen and the Democratic challenger Jim Webb. The poll was conducted 9/28 thru 10/1 and surveyed 750 likely voters. This is the third poll released in the last week, with the SurveyUSA poll showing Allen leading 50% to 44% and the Mason-Dixon poll showing a tie at 43% each.
I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen more written about the Rasmussen poll. Perhaps it is because it came on the heels of the Mason Dixon one showing the candidates tied. (Of course, the M-D poll was outed early – it was supposed to have been released Monday as well.) I think there is some good information in this poll.
Voter profiles
A look at the crosstabs of the Rasmussen survey reveals who is likely to vote for each candidate. Allen voters are conservative Republicans, mostly male, white and more than half are married. Allen captures 78% of the evangelical vote and more than half of the protestant and Catholic vote. Webb voters are liberal Democrats (although he also captures a majority of the moderate vote), more women than men (although not a majority of the women surveyed), unmarried and have no religious affiliation. Not surprising, 90% of Allen’s supporters have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 93% of Webb’s supporters have the opposite opinion. Thirteen percent of Democrats say they are voting for Allen, while 11% of Republicans say they are voting for Webb.
The undecideds
Overall, five percent of those survey were undecided. While only 3% of Republicans were undecided, 7% of Democrats were. Men mirror the Republican group, with 3% undecided, while 8% of women are undecided. While only 4% of of whites were undecided, a whopping 14% of blacks were.
On the issues
Forty-five percent of those surveyed named national security as the number one issue, with 33% saying Iraq. Allen voters were more concerned with national security: 76% of them named this their top issue. A majority (57%) of Webb voters named Iraq.
On the issue of women serving in combat, 58% said such service should be allowed, with 31% saying no. Men and women roughly agreed/disagreed at the same rate. Black voters answered this question almost identically to conservative voters, with 42% saying yes and 46% saying no.
Several questions were asked on the issue of race. Asked if most Americans are racist, 23% said yes and 61% said no. Allen voters mirrored the GOP voters, with 15% saying yes. Thirty-one percent of the Webb voters, influenced by the 40% yes of the black voters, answered this question in the affirmative. Interestingly, 64% of the “Other” voters (those not voting for Allen or Webb) answered yes.
Black voters
Black voters constitute about 20% of the voters in Virginia. This poll shows Allen capturing 22% of the black vote, Webb getting 61% and, as mentioned above, 14% undecided. Twenty-four percent have an unfavorable opinion of Webb, and 14% are unsure. Exactly half of black voters believe Webb’s statement that people in the South used the n-word, with 52% believing that Allen used the slur as a young man and only 30% believing that Webb used it.
My take
Much of what was seen the Rasmussen poll data was echoed in the SurveyUSA poll. It is no surprise, then, that the overall results are similar. Without the crosstabs, I cannot fully comment on the Mason-Dixon poll, but it appears to be the outlier of the three.
This race is going to be decided on turnout. Allen continues to appeal to his base, despite his recent troubles. With the added incentive of the marriage amendment, I believe his base will turn out. Allen just needs to stay out of trouble. Another incident and he’s toast.
I remain concerned about Webb’s position with the black community, the only real Democratic base remaining. He simply cannot win without it. With a little less than 5 weeks to go, increasing his favorables here and turning out the vote should be a priority.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Vivian,
I thought this additional paragraph was interesting:
>>>Sixty percent (60%) say reporting about charges like this has been excessive. Still, 81% are following the story of Allen’s alleged racial slurs somewhat (26%) or very closely (55%). Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe the Senator is guilty as charged. Twenty-two percent (22%) believe Webb is guilty of the same offense
Whatever else is the case, Webb certainl has been getting better and better in Ras’ accounting of who the likely voters is, while Allen has fallen slightly. The key difference here in whether the trend can continue, and continue fast enough, will be money. It’s no secret at all that a huge part of getting out the Democratic base involves having a GOTV program and having all the powerful local African American leaders actively pulling for you. It’s not clear at this point whether or not Webb has outperformed what were always rather expectations here. Webb simply has not had the money to spend on local politicians in general, nor has he had the money to travel around meeting them and winning their support face to face. Webb’s final days may well see him doing more of this, but it’s always going to be too little too late in many ways. The African American political community in general has a deep resentment for being treated as an afterthought late in the game instead of part of the game early on (this was something Kaine did right: start early, start REALLY early). While partly this may not be all Webb’s fault, since he’s both a first termer and underfunded without a lot of clout to convince people that he’s worth the risk, its still something he simply cannot spend too much time working on in the final month. A base that you don’t pay attention to is simply not going to outperform in the way you need it.
Meanwhile, Allen continues to crush Webb in terms of direct mail. Allen could strangle a child to death: but if the only mail pieces about the incident are all from Allen, then voters would end up blaming Webb for it. Webb has a pretty solid bio and story. Unfortunately, as with everything else, he doesn’t have the power to get it out there, and Allen has gotten far too much leeway to be the one to present Webb to the voters on Allen’s terms while voters hear little from Webb.
I have not gotten one piece of direct mail from either Allen or Webb. I get LOTS from Tom Davis and 2 pieces from Tom O’Donoghue who isn’t even running in my district.
Webb could have been out meeting with Black groups and in Black churches, had he cared about their votes. Remember, Webb has been quite clear that he doesn’t like asking people for money or for their vote. If he doesn’t explain himself to Black groups, and doesn’t ask for their votes, he can count on not getting them. TRaveling around the state cost very little and asking is free. Webb just doesn’t know what it’s important and what is not and he doesn’t seem to have a staff anywhere near the caliber of Allen’s people. A new candidate like Webb really needs to have a great team around him. Webb does not appear to have done that. They’re stumbling and bumbling. Webb should never have been put in this position. He’s not good at politics, the glad handing, talking to lots of different groups. The poor man may even be an introvert. Campaigning is a nightmare for introverts and it exhausts them.
“Webb has a pretty solid bio and story. Unfortunately, as with everything else, he doesn’t have the power to get it out there”
Webb has a solid, one-dimensional bio and story, and little else. And he has gotten ample help from MSM in getting it out there. As for the gradual Rasmussen trend in Webb’s direction, that’s what anyone would expect in a race between a veteran politician and a virtual unknown. The more Webb becomes known, the more likely he is to get Democrat voters to associate with him.
But don’t forget, every year virtually every poll in this state undercounts conservatives. If Allen goes into the first week of Nov. with a 6-point lead in Ras & SUSA, look for a 10-12 point win.
Here’s Jane Oldman’s comments at NLS. I thought they should be added to the discussion here…
“Interesting that 60% of voters thought that the media coverage of Allen’s negative issues was ‘excessive’. I knew it would backfire.
Why hasn’t Webb campaigned among Black groups? The usual democrat thing, wait until the last minue, and hit the churches, because you take the Black vote for granted. Not a good strategy. Blacks are as dumb as democrats thing that they are. They won’t be used as a political football and taken for granted. I’d bet that Webb isn’t very uncomfortable around blacks, just as he isn’t very comfortable around many people. His standoffishness won’t play well in Black communitites. Perhaps it is better that he hasn’t tried to get the Black vote. Better to stick with white women, many of whom are blonde. ”
Posted by: Jane Oldham | October 04, 2006 at 04:02 AM
Jane, I hope you meant to say, “Blacks AREN’T as dumb as democrats think they are.”
Anyway, it is telling that more Democrats say they will vote for Allen than Republicans say they will vote for Webb. Webb has not convinced the Democrats that he is one of them. Perhaps the figure if they have a choice between a Republican and a Republican, they’ll vote Republican.
Regarding mail: I know it’s a bit early but outside of the mailings Drake did during the summer, I have gotten very few pieces – 2 this week from the RNC. I got one piece earlier from RPV on behalf of Allen.
I don’t think the number of Dems voting for Allen versus the number of Repubs voting for Webb is significant: statistically, it’s a wash.
As for the 60% quote: it is included in the linked story, which I assume people will read. I don’t think the racial stories about Allen backfired; I do think people are tired of them. After all, as I mentioned in the other post, most of these charges were made in 2000.
Vivian – The reason the M-D poll is getting more MSM coverage than the Ras or SUSA is twofold. First, the media doesn’t want a 6 point Allen lead, they want a tie. A tie creates interest which sells newspapers/creates viewers. Second, the M-D poll was actually commissioned by several media outlets. They’re not gonna pay for a poll and then report on a competing poll.
Viv,
Very thoughtful analysis. I agree with your conclusions
Vivian, you honestly think Allen will get 20% of the black vote? You’re insane. Bush can’t do that and he never even used the N-Word. Give me a break.
Excellent analysis, Vivian.
I wish that you were on our side, but barring that, I hope that the Dems are smart enough to elect you to something someday. You’re calm, rational, and intelligent — something our public discourse is sorely lacking.
Breaux, Allen has historically done well with the black vote. Virginians know him and they know that what they are hearing now are desperate election year smears. The number of black ministers and others who have come to his defense against these charges is testiment to that.
You republicans can’t honestly think that a guy who has been called out numerous times about using the word “n*****,” had a noose in his office and loved the Confederate Flag despite being from California is going to do as well as he did last time around. This is seriously crazy talk.
However, as blacks constitute 20% of the VA voting pop, I will concede Macacawitz getting 20% of 20%, totaling 4%. But someone whose been accused of stuffing a severed deer’s head in a black persons mailbox probably won’t do so well with blacks.
It is no coincidence that Lambert’s endorsement came after a pledge by Allen to secure nearly a half-billion dollars in federal funding for financially troubled historically black colleges. Moreover, at Lambert’s urging, Allen, along with Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), announced their sponsorship Monday of a bill that would honor the late U.S. District Judges Spottswood W. Robinson III, who was black, and Robert R. Merhige Jr., who was white, by having a new federal courts building in Richmond named after them “for their historic roles in the nation’s civil rights struggle.”
No small order in the capital of the Confederacy.
So since the Macaca incident Allen has widened his lead from 5% to 6%.