On Monday, Rasmussen released its latest poll of the race between incumbent Republican senator George Allen and the Democratic challenger Jim Webb. The poll was conducted 9/28 thru 10/1 and surveyed 750 likely voters. This is the third poll released in the last week, with the SurveyUSA poll showing Allen leading 50% to 44% and the Mason-Dixon poll showing a tie at 43% each.
I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen more written about the Rasmussen poll. Perhaps it is because it came on the heels of the Mason Dixon one showing the candidates tied. (Of course, the M-D poll was outed early – it was supposed to have been released Monday as well.) I think there is some good information in this poll.
Voter profiles
A look at the crosstabs of the Rasmussen survey reveals who is likely to vote for each candidate. Allen voters are conservative Republicans, mostly male, white and more than half are married. Allen captures 78% of the evangelical vote and more than half of the protestant and Catholic vote. Webb voters are liberal Democrats (although he also captures a majority of the moderate vote), more women than men (although not a majority of the women surveyed), unmarried and have no religious affiliation. Not surprising, 90% of Allen’s supporters have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 93% of Webb’s supporters have the opposite opinion. Thirteen percent of Democrats say they are voting for Allen, while 11% of Republicans say they are voting for Webb.
The undecideds
Overall, five percent of those survey were undecided. While only 3% of Republicans were undecided, 7% of Democrats were. Men mirror the Republican group, with 3% undecided, while 8% of women are undecided. While only 4% of of whites were undecided, a whopping 14% of blacks were.
On the issues
Forty-five percent of those surveyed named national security as the number one issue, with 33% saying Iraq. Allen voters were more concerned with national security: 76% of them named this their top issue. A majority (57%) of Webb voters named Iraq.
On the issue of women serving in combat, 58% said such service should be allowed, with 31% saying no. Men and women roughly agreed/disagreed at the same rate. Black voters answered this question almost identically to conservative voters, with 42% saying yes and 46% saying no.
Several questions were asked on the issue of race. Asked if most Americans are racist, 23% said yes and 61% said no. Allen voters mirrored the GOP voters, with 15% saying yes. Thirty-one percent of the Webb voters, influenced by the 40% yes of the black voters, answered this question in the affirmative. Interestingly, 64% of the “Other” voters (those not voting for Allen or Webb) answered yes.
Black voters
Black voters constitute about 20% of the voters in Virginia. This poll shows Allen capturing 22% of the black vote, Webb getting 61% and, as mentioned above, 14% undecided. Twenty-four percent have an unfavorable opinion of Webb, and 14% are unsure. Exactly half of black voters believe Webb’s statement that people in the South used the n-word, with 52% believing that Allen used the slur as a young man and only 30% believing that Webb used it.
My take
Much of what was seen the Rasmussen poll data was echoed in the SurveyUSA poll. It is no surprise, then, that the overall results are similar. Without the crosstabs, I cannot fully comment on the Mason-Dixon poll, but it appears to be the outlier of the three.
This race is going to be decided on turnout. Allen continues to appeal to his base, despite his recent troubles. With the added incentive of the marriage amendment, I believe his base will turn out. Allen just needs to stay out of trouble. Another incident and he’s toast.
I remain concerned about Webb’s position with the black community, the only real Democratic base remaining. He simply cannot win without it. With a little less than 5 weeks to go, increasing his favorables here and turning out the vote should be a priority.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Virginian – I know that the MSM would rather talk about a horse race 😉 But my understanding was that MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers were the only ones that paid for the M-D poll and that it was provided to the other M-D papers for free.
Breaux – I don’t take to kindly to being called insane. And I do not tolerate racial slurs on this blog, so your post has been edited according. I reported the numbers in the poll. SurveyUSA has Allen getting 27% of the black vote. While there have been some new charges of racism in this race, the rest of it – the noose, the Confederate flag, his stand on Confederate History Month – have been known for a while and were issues in the 2000 campaign.
The Allen camp claims that they get a higher percentage of black voters than normal. I haven’t been able to track down anything concrete that shows this. I found this which shows him polling at 31% of the black vote in May 2000, this one from Nov 2000 showing him polling at 10%, and this exit poll showing him earning 18% . Perhaps someone from the Allen camp can produce some voting data that shows actual results.
Vivian – The 10% pre-election number and the 18%-20% actual votes numbers from 2000 are considered by the MSM to be accurate. The irony is that most think Robb’s last minute attacks on Allen over race were what actually drove Allen’s numbers higher. I’ll be curious to see if Webb’s surrogates’ more vocal attacks on Allen this year with have the same, greater or lesser effect.
Virginian – saying something enough times doesn’t make it real for me. The MSM is lazy and doesn’t look for hard data. That’s why I keep referring to it as “the Allen camp claims.” We know that exit polls are unreliable – just ask Doug Wilder 😉
If the numbers are true, then I’d like to see something other than a quote. Surely that data is available somewhere?
Well forgive me for calling you insane, maybe off the mark would have been better. And as for racial slurs, obviously this wasn’t me using it as a pejoritive, but reiterating what George Felix Allen has said. I realize Allen garnered high numbers in 2000 with blacks. However, that was with Robb’s late in the game usage of the race card. The focus of the entire second half of the summer untill this date has been on Allen’s liberties with racial slurs and racist tendancies. That being said judging 2000 in relations to 2006 is wrong because the two have been so disimilar in tones.
You can’t even say “off the mark” because you ultimately agreed with me 🙂
I disagree with your assessment that 2000 and 2006 don’t compare. The poll numbers – all that we have to go on – don’t lie. The first Zogby poll released last week showed him at 31% of the black vote, the second one at 27%. Rasmussen is showing 22%. No doubt as we get closer to 11/8, that number will drop some. But I still expect to see Allen get 12%-15% of the black vote. The factors for Allen capturing this much of the black vote are just there: the Lambert endorsement, the black ministers who support him (and the marriage amendment), the lack of Webb presence in the black community, to name a few.
Hopefully this time, somebody (other than the campaigns) will actually look at the voter data and give us the real breakdown.
Oh aren’t you fancy with your emoticon.
So what im understand is blacks make up 20% of the voting pop here in VA. You’re saying Allen gets 15-20% of that. (Lets say 20 as I wasn’t a math major). So that means 4% of the overall black vote.
Correct me if my logic is wrong.
Yes, your logic is correct (although I did say 12%-15%, not 20% ;)) With the tightening of the race (and I do expect it will get closer), 3% will be significant to the overall totals.
But here is a bigger issue: what will be the result if the black vote stays at home (and it has increasingly done that)?
“If the numbers are true, then I’d like to see something other than a quote. Surely that data is available somewhere?”
I’m too lazy, but you could look up what the 2000 vote was in the black precincts in Norfolk. Same with Richmond and Portsmouth and Petersburg, but you would have to know which were the black precincts and I don’t anymore.
The real danger to Webb is the 3rd & 4th district staying home.
Well thank you for clearing this up, and yes you used 12-15% but all that multiplication and division is hard for us liberal arts majors.
If the black vote stays home then Webb looses, its as simple as that. But with such racist undertones in this campaign cycle I’d imagine they’d come out. Despite not being black im still disgusted with the use of the N-word and terrible actions by Allen, I would bet most blacks do too.
The only way to really look at the data is to overlay the census data onto the precinct totals. While I have some of that data (by precinct), I don’t have the entire state. So while I could do Norfolk, it still would be a bit difficult to come up with the real picture, as precinct boundaries have changed, etc.
You & I agree on the vote in the 3rd & 4th staying at home.
Breaux – where is the incentive for the black vote to come out? The 3rd & 4th CD are uncontested races.
Anger aganist any a racist candidate? Wouldn’t this drive someone to vote? Never having lived in Jesse Jackson’s district I don’t know what it feels like to be on the recieving end of racist remarks during a campaign, but I’d imagine I would automatically vote for the other person.
I don’t think a lot of folks understand the poor Black voter (I know I don’t and I am one!) These accusations are about behavior that happened (for the most part) DECADES ago. Black folks BELIEVE in forgiveness! We see brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, relatives, friends get incarcerated for years for petty offenses, come out and JUST NEED A 2ND CHANCE!
So yes Breaux, racism (as expressed in past offenses) might NOT drive someone to vote when that appears to be the only (or one of the few) actions against him/her. We figure there is NO WAY a Senator/Congress Person is going to bring back Jim Crow therefore what ELSE can they do and/or are they going to do!
We are figuring, “We all made mistakes in our life… Get the hell off the race issue and what are you proposing to do that is going to get me and my family fed? How about a few extra dollars in my pocket? HEALTH INSURANCE?? WHAT? YOU’RE GONNA WORK ON THAT!!
DISCLOSURE: I am not speaking for nor am I qualified to speak for all Black voters, poor or otherwise.
Breaux – You really are having a hard time with math. Let me try to make this really simple. Let’s assume there are 100 voters in VA. Blacks make up about 20% (or 20 of those voters). Of those 20 voters, Webb will get +/-16 (80%) and Allen will get +/-4 (20%). That doesn’t mean he’ll get 4% of the black vote. It means +/-4% of the total electorate will be black voters who vote for Allen. +/-16% of the total electorate will be black voters who vote for Webb.
Lawrence – You’ve hit the nail on the head. Here are some facts. New studies show the “Bush tax cuts” reduced the tax burden on folks making $35,000 by a whopping 40% (much more of a reduction than that received by the rich). They also doubled the number of people paying ZERO taxes. Black home ownership is at an all time high and growing. Access to higher education for all blacks, especially poor blacks, has skyrocketed over the last few years. Black owned businesses are thriving due to tax credits, reduced regulation and enterprise zones. Allen wants increased MSAs, prescription drug coverage, etc. etc.
Obviously, there are lots of issues where black voters disagree with Allen. That’s life, that’s politics. However, black voters who really examine the issues will see that the modern Republican party is not quite as far from them as they thought.