Gallup poll: turnout 35%?

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Everyone is talking about the new Gallup poll that came out today. The poll shows Allen ahead of Webb, 48% to45%, within the margin of error of +/- 5%.

Buried down at the bottom is a note about turnout:

Based on past voting history in Virginia, turnout is assumed to be 35% of the voting age population.

This is something I’ve been meaning to take a look at. My gut reaction is that this year’s election will not be like those of prior years and that turnout will be lower.

What do you think?

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12 thoughts on “Gallup poll: turnout 35%?”

  2. Vivian, from the research I have done recently on voter turnout in VA I would have to guess that 35% is a pretty reasonable expectation. Sad. Many contents will come down to turnout pure and simple. In PWC for example the western, more traditionally conservative parts of the county, have much better turnout than the eastern, traditionally more liberal parts of the county. This will be a critical factor in our Special Election for Chairman of The Board of County Supervisors especially considering the fact that a large number of eligible voters aren’t even aware of the fact that there is a special election.

    Overall the level of voter apathy in this country (and in our state) is pathetic. Voters don’t get the government that they want, they get the government that they deserve. Democracy in this country is failing because the citizens aren’t participating…

  3. I predict the turnout in Hampton Roads will suck. Kellam will, however, prevail. Webb wins it all as NoVA will have overwhelmingly great turnout. But who cares what I think?!

  4. Craig – 35% seems a bit high to me, but as I said, I haven’t looked at the numbers yet.

    Voter apathy is a major issue, fueled, in my opinion, by the increasing sense that neither party is different from the other and that no one is listening to the voters, anyway.

    I say you have to vote. In order to have the right to complain, you have to vote. If you don’t vote, then you let someone else make the decision. And you forfeit your right to complain.

  5. I think that turnout in Northern Virginia, particularly in Arlington and Falls Church, will be higher than usual given the Marshall/Newman Amendment and the natural antipathy a lot of people in those places feel against George Allen. I believe that Webb will enjoy strong support among Arlington’s veterans, the Vietnamese Americans, gays, and women. Fairfax tends to be more Republican in outlook, but a lot of them are moderates or traditional conservatives as opposed to neocons. I believe that a lot of the Republican voters will either stay home because Allen doesn’t excite them and they really don’t believe Webb is that bad, or some of them may actually jump to Webb over the war and the huge deficits we’re running up. The apparent disparity between Senator Warner’s Iraq position and George Allen’s may also hurt Allen. Senator Warner is more respected than Allen.

    The whole macaca/Jewish ancestry thing means nothing to most voters in these areas. Allen’s smear campaign against Webb for his alleged feelings about women may cause a decrease in women’s votes for Webb or may result in a substantial backlash from people annoyed that he professes to run a clean campaign while attacking over and over again on one issue, that of an opinion piece written 27 years ago. Allen has never been a clean campaigner, his campaign did some nasty things to Mary Sue Terry (implied she was a lesbian, violated her doctor-patient privilege), but in this case he may have bitten off more than he can chew.

  6. Vivian,

    With local black clergy pushing passage of the Marshall Newman amendment how do you think this will affect voter turnout in the black community? How do you think it will affect the Senate race?

  7. Last year Fairfax County had a 45% turnout and Kaine won by 22 points. Today Allen and the Republicans are even less popular. The congressional campaigns are well run and Webb will have a big victory here.

    I have no way to know what is happening in the rest of the state.

  8. I think the Marshall/Newman amendment proponents should keep using hate speech like this to try to drive up their voter turnout. Good plan!

    Because, as we all know (because they keep telling us), 1) the amendment isn’t about hating anyone, and 2) it certainly isn’t a strategy by fake “family values” champions to take the votes of religious conservatives for granted, and then later laugh at how gullible they are.

    Will it work again? I dunno. I’d sure be annoyed if it was me being used.

  9. I think the winner-take-all system is a major contributor to voter apathy. In a heavily partisan district, why bother voting? You know who’s going to win anyway.

    One of Bill Clinton’s nominees (I’m sorry I do not remember her name), recommended that Congresscritters run state-wide. In Virginia, everyone would get 11 votes, to cast any way they want. You could vote for 11 different people, cast 11 for one person, or split up your votes however you chose. (This differs from some multiple-post elections, in which the voters get several votes, but they have to be for different candidates.) The 11 people with the most votes would be our Congresscritters. This would allow small minorities, such as Socialists and Libertarians, to pool all their votes behind one person to get him elected. Certainly if a group makes up 10% of the population, they should get at least one Representative in Congress. With the current winner-take-all system, there is no way that minority can get a representative.

    Vivian, I’m hoping you can help me with woman’s name. It just plum escapes me right now.

  10. From what I’ve seen, and heard, the republican base is fired up. They think that the left has piled on Allen with the racial stuff. The churches, including the Catholic churches, are pushing the marriage amendment. For those reasons, I think that the republican turnout will be higher than most off year elections. (Not that Virginia ever has off years.) Republicans are MAD.

    Not enough voters live in Arlington and Falls Church for them to do much for Webb. I suspect that Fairfax county will go for Webb, but the margin won’t be great. Webb has even less charisma than Kerry and he has little name recognition. I don’t see regular democrats fired up to make a big effort to get to the polls to vote for him.

    Tuesday voting is a pain for people in NOVA. They commute long distances, polls close by 7:00, polling places change frequently, and people move frequently. If it rains on election day, few commuters will get home in time to vote. 35% sounds high to me.

    Do we know with certainity that NOVA had a 45% voter turnout last year? I know that my precinct didn’t come close to that.

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