The latest Majority Watch poll has been released and it shows incumbent Republican Congresswoman Thelma Drake with a 2% lead over Democratic challenger Phil Kellam, with 6% undecided. The poll was conducted October 8-10 and included 982 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
This represents a tremendous swing from the one released last month which showed Kellam with at 51% to 43% advantage over Drake.
I’d like to spend some time reviewing the crosstabs on this, particularly as it compares to last month’s poll (another tax filing deadline is approaching) but one thing jumped out at me: while the number of Republicans supporting Kellam is identical to the last poll (22%), the number of Democrats supporting Drake has jumped dramatically – from 12% to 23%.
No doubt the Drake campaign is happy with these results. This is a tight race that is likely going down to the wire.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Note the August poll was “all voters” and this October poll is “likely voters” for the main percentages given so you really cannot do a head to head comparison as it is an apples vs oranges scenario.
I wonder how many of the 23% (Democrats) said they were voting for Drake to throw off the poll. I know some people who do that. : )
The poll bears out what Phil Kellam is up to: simply trying to play “home boy” in Virginia Beach and win that way.
His lack of substance and all of the negative ads will take him down.
Does this poll break down the 900+ voters by city? Virginia Beach makes up 70% of the district. This means that at least 630 of the registered voters should have been from Virginia Beach to get accurate numbers. Thelma is very popular in Norfolk and would do better in the poll if most if the respondents were from Norfolk.
Vivian: This is a bad poll. I am not at statitician but look at the georgaphic breakdown:
East (VA Beach): 36% Actual Vote: 70%
North (E. Shore): 28% Actual Vote: 12%
West (Norfolk/Hampton): 36% Actual Vote: 18%
That’s the same argument the folks on the other side had last time, BTW. 🙂 You have to look at their definitions of East/North/West:
For reference purposes:
North is SD1 = Martin Williams, SD2 = Maime Locke, and SD6 = Nick Rerras
West is SD5 = Yvonne Miller and SD7 = Frank Wagner
East is SD8 = Ken Stolle and SD14 = Harry Blevins
So they split Virginia Beach up.