Yesterday’s announcement that former governor Mark Warner was ending his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 caught me, like many others, by surprise. Until a few days ago, I thought Warner was positioning himself for the #2 spot on the ticket. Honestly, I didn’t see how he was going to get past Hillary, even though she is not my choice. My sense was that with her at the top of the ticket, she’d need someone like Mark Warner to stay competitive, and, perhaps, pull out a win. Without Warner, I just don’t see how Hillary can win the White House. Unless somebody comes out of nowhere, it’s going to be tough for the Democrats to win in 2008. The bench is quite thin.
A few days ago, someone told me that Warner wouldn’t accept the #2 position. Since then, I’ve been asking around and a number of people have confirmed that Warner taking the VP position is unlikely. If this is true, then Warner made the right decision to get out of the race now. Even if it is not true, his stated reason for getting out of the race – to spend more time with his family – seems to reduce to a very small possibility that he would run for VP.
So what will Warner do? My best guess at this point is that it will depend on who wins the presidency in 2008. I will be quite surprised if he runs for the Senate seat, even if John Warner retires, as has been rumored. If a Democrat is elected president in 2008, look for Mark Warner to run for governor again in 2009, with an eye towards a presidential run in 2016. If a Republican is elected in 2008, I think Warner will run for president in 2012. If the latter holds, he’ll need to do something high profile politically – perhaps an appointment of some kind – to keep his name out front. It is a possibility that he would run for governor in 2009 and run for president in 2012, but I think that is unlikely.
So where does that leave Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran, the top two Democrats most mentioned as candidates for governor in 2009? Sitting on their hands, waiting to see what decision Warner will make. I don’t think either of them would challenge him if he wanted to run for governor. With Warner at the top of the ticket, these two would do fine as LG and AG, in any order. What will be interesting is how the Republicans will respond if Warner runs for governor again. Will LG Bill Bolling or AG Bob McDonnell, the two Republicans most mentioned as candidates for governor in 2009, be willing to take on the popular Warner? My guess? They’ll find somebody else to run for governor (read: cannon fodder 😉 ), and run for re-election in their current jobs. This scenario pushes the showdown between top contenders in both parties back four years, to 2013. All of these men are young enough for this to play out.
And, of course, I could be completely wrong on all of this 😆 Hillary might just be elected president with Warner as her VP 😆 Brian Moran beats Bob McDonnell for governor in 2009, Creigh Deeds is elected as LG, beating Bill Bolling, and Viola Baskerville is elected AG, with only nominal competition.
Seriously, though, am I disappointed that Warner has decided to get out of the race for 2008? You bet. But that’s being selfish on my part. Mark Warner has served Virginia well and I’m sure he will again – on his terms and when he’s ready.
(photo of Mark Warner & me taken at Bobby Scott’s Labor Day Picnic 2005)
Technorati Tags: Mark Warner
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I bet Warner runs for John Warner’s seat in the Senate come ’08. He read the tea leaves and assumed he wouldn’t come out ahead against Team Hillary.
1. Breaux, I agree, Warner would run for John Warner’s seat if the Senator retires.
2. Vivian, as far as your sources saying Warner would not accept VP, all I’ve got to say is get better sources. Of course he would accept it IF offered — what better way to get known nationally? He is a politician with national aspirations, afterall.
3. Does Viola Baskerville even qualify to run for Attorney General? Yea, I guess (?) she went to Law School but she really never has been a practicing attorney and probably even isn’t a member of the bar.I think that she would run for LG again though, quite honestly, I really don’t think she’s a very good statewide general election candidate.
Tom – there are folks out there that know Mark Warner better than I do. If I had only heard it from one or two, I wouldn’t have said anything. But to hear it from several – including members of the MSM – coupled with Warner’s own statement about why he is withdrawing from the presidential race tells me there is some smoke here. It also plays into why he won’t run for the Senate – he’s a leader, not a follower.
As for Viola – didn’t you notice the smileys? It was a joke. I don’t have any idea as to whether she’s qualified to be AG – only that she is a lawyer. And there is no way that anyone would run for statewide office with only “nominal competition” as I put in the post.
Just remember, Vivian, he’s run for the Senate before and really needs some foreign/defense policy credentials on his resume. And, as far as going again for Governor, second acts are often a lot tougher. Mills Godwin certainly found that out.
And, of course, he says he’s not going for VP; nobody does! But, if the calls comes, mark my words he would take it in a heartbeat — its simply the nature of any political beast. Mark is no better or worse than any other ambitious political person in this regard. He wants to move up — not sideways.
Yes, he needs to beef up his resume, although I saw something where his resume was considered the best of the current crop of candidates for president, when the names were removed. (Wish I could find that link.) That’s why I think he’ll need to get an appointment of some kind. I remember well his prior run for Senate – in fact, that was the first time I met him. Another run for Senate still seems a bit unlikely to me, for a lot of reasons. But you never know 😉
Running as the VP candidate is about as hard as running for president. I’m not convinced that he would do that. But let’s just play this thru: assume that he accepts the #2 position and the ticket wins. In that case, he’s out of the running in 2012, unless the sitting president chooses not to run for re-election (unlikely). So that puts him at 2016 for his first run as president.
If the ticket loses, he’s still got to find something to do between 2008 and 2012. I can’t imagine him sitting on his hands.
Personally, I think he should have stayed in the race – at least a while longer. I’m afraid he’s missing an opportunity – like Gore did when he decided not to run, thinking Bush 41 was unbeatable. By the time he realized that Bush 41 was vulnerable, it was too late for him to get in the race and he ended up serving as VP for 2 terms before he got his chance to run for president.
Speaking of Gore – I’m starting to think he may be the only one who can derail the Hillary Clinton train.
It was a Zogby poll, based on biographies and not names. Here’s the only link I could find to it: http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060820/28whisplead_2.htm
I knew I saw it somewhere 🙂 Thanks for the link.
Vivian,
Hillary can and will win. I have every confidence that after 8 years of the ignorant dry drunk, people will want a sober, intelligent policy wonk. That’s what Hillary provides. The question is, who will her VP be? Who should it be?
Bill Clinton and Mark Warner criss cross the south looking to pick up a state for Hill, who of course ventures about as far south as Alexandria and LA in the West.
The only one who can stop Hillary is Condi…
Uh, notice how the Dems wish they had a candidate as good as Condi. Notice, how “W” and the evil Karl Rove have groomed her in their administration, along with other Americans with African Heritage to hold high posts…. Mr Powell, anyone?
Can’t say that for the Clinton Administration… Who have they “groomed” for National office? Seriously…
Spank That Donkey,
Whoever believes in this fantasy Condi campaign really needs to see a shrink, pronto. Or, more likely, rehab. The Republican party will never turn to a black woman no matter what her qualifications or ideology may be.
Let me qualify that by saying emphatically that I didn’t mean to imply that Condoleezza is qualified. She Ain’t. I am just a little exasperated by the right wing cheering squad for the GOP stable of sycophantic negroes. Condoleezza’s detestable domestic politics and international war crimes are enough of a disqualifier.
Being a handkerchief head negress is just the icing on the cake. Condi will never be President. Don’t wish for it. God help us if her narrow behind ever alights in the Oval Office.
Spank – I often wondered why Powell didn’t run. After all, y’all all said that he could win. Just last Sunday, I heard George Will say that the polls showed – both those done by outsiders and Powell’s own polls – that he couldn’t win. I suspect Condi Rice is in a similar boat right now. We have to face the reality that America isn’t ready to elect a woman nor a person of color. Sorry SB – that knocks HIllary out, too.
Vivian:
I highly suggest you go to http://www.cpac.org this coming February. As a matter of fact get the Blue Dog’s take on this past Feb’s convention. There were two condi rice organizations with booths, and as a matter of fact the first booth you saw upon entering the exhibition area was for Condi.
Skeptical Brotha:
Beyond attacking Condi, would you like to comment on the miserable 8 year record of the Clinton Administration in regards to appointing Americans with African Heritage, vs. eight years of “W”?
and what about Ron Brown?