The latest SurveyUSA poll is up. Conducted 10/22/2006 – 10/24/2006, the survey of 613 likely voters has a margin of +/-4%, so the results are within the margin of error. Gail Parker polled at 2%, with only 3% of voters remaining undecided. SurveyUSA’s analysis:
Today, Allen leads by 14 among males; Webb leads by 9 among females. Allen leads by 15 among white voters. Webb leads by 62 points among black voters. Blacks made up 14% of likely voters in SurveyUSA’s turnout model. If blacks vote in larger numbers, the Democrat benefits. If blacks vote in smaller numbers, the Republican benefits. 90% of Republicans vote Republican. 90% of Democrats vote Democrat. Among Independents, there is movement to Webb. In SurveyUSA’s most recent poll, on 9/29, Webb trailed by 7 among Independents. Today he leads by 13, a 20-point swing. There is movement to Allen among the most educated voters. There is movement to Webb among the least educated voters. Allen’s lead is the largest it has ever been in rural areas. Allen’s lead is the smallest it has ever been in suburban area.
Interesting that the analysis points to the black vote.
Also polled was the so-called Marriage Amendment. Like the last poll, this one did not read the entire amendment. The question was identical and reflects an increasing awareness of the amendment:
Of those voters who are certain, 37% are ‘Certain Yes,’ 28% are ‘Certain No.’ Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/29/06, Yes and No have moved in parallel. Then, the measure passed by 10 points, with 52% ‘Not Certain.’ Today, ‘Certain Yes’ is up 8 points. ‘Certain No’ is up 9 points. Democrats oppose the measure by 27 points, up from 5. Republicans support it by 46 points, up from 33. Only among Democrats is the movement in opposite directions: ‘Certain No’ Democrats are up 14 points, from 28% to 42%. ‘Certain Yes’ Democrats are down 8 points from 23% to 15%. In the DC suburbs, the measure trails by 5 points. In the Shenandoah, the measure leads by 25 points. Those supporting George Allen for Senator back the measure 6:1. Those supporting Jim Webb for Senator oppose the measure 3:1.
The largest groups of uncertain voters are blacks and those in the Southeastern region. I guess we know where we need to work 🙂
I do find the negative change among Democrats puzzling. Perhaps somebody can weigh in on this.
h/t to Kilo at Spark it Up
Technorati Tags: George Allen, Jim Webb, Marshall Newman Amendment, Virginia Marriage Amendment
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
These auto-polls don’t excite me.
The real news will be the Mason-Dixon poll on the Drake-Kellam race to be released tomorrow.
Having watched this race, I am pretty sure Kellam will hold a lead of a few points — perhaps within the margin, but maybe outside it. Phil definitely has momentum.
In reality, auto polls have been found to be more accurate than phone polls. People lie less to a machine. SurveyUSA was second only to Rasmussen in predicting race outcomes in 2004.
How do we know that Phill has the big mo?
Our adjacent states of West Virginia, North Carolina, and Maryland have been able to stave off this marriage amendment nonsense. Were Virginia to be purple enough to defeat the amendment – and be the first state to do so, after it has passed previously in 20, then this might be seen as a turning point against the intrusion of religious fundamentalists into civic affairs.
Unfortunately, the normally creative gay community and its leaders have failed totally in seizing this opportunity – and a generation will be lost in the shadows of institutional discrimination. Where was the “Martin Luther King” of the gay movement?