With 10% of those surveyed still undecided, the latest Mason Dixon poll shows 2nd Congressional District incumbent Republican Thelma Drake leading Democratic challenger Phil Kellam 46% to 44%, well within the margin of error. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted 10/23-24 – Monday and Tuesday this week – and has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
The poll also shows that in the 2nd, the Senate race between incumbent Republican Senator George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb mirrors that of the Drake/Kellam race, with Allen receiving 45% to Webb’s 44%. Independent Gail Parker picks up 2% of the vote while 9% of the vote is undecided. The poll memo is available here.
This was the poll that I participated in Monday evening. It is always interesting to see poll results from a poll that I have participated in. I like to see how my answers stack up against the other participants. In this case, the most interesting thing I noticed was what the Pilot pointed out: the undersampling of black voters.
While blacks constitute 21 percent of all residents in the 2nd District, they were only 9 percent of those polled in the district by Mason-Dixon.
Coker said the discrepancy exists because the poll sampled likely voters, and black residents are less likely to vote than white residents.
I would like to know the percentage of black voters in the 2nd, since I don’t know if residents are equal to voters. In any event, if black voters are more than 9%, I would suspect that the Kellam numbers would be higher.
Republicans made up 38% of those surveyed, with Democrats at 27% and Independent/Other at 35%. I do not know how closely this matches the breakdown in the 2nd. Were Republicans oversampled?
In any case, with 12 days to go, there is no doubt that the race is close. (I had predicted a 2% lead for Kellam, well within the MOE.) Both campaigns will be working hard to convince that 10% to vote for them.
Others blogging about this: VB Dems, Bearing Drift, Hampton Roads Politics, Politicians and Poetry, Southwest by Southeast
Technorati Tags: Thelma Drake, Phil Kellam, Jim Webb, George Allen
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 