The Democratic takeover of the Congress has been impressive. The mood of the country seems to be that it is time for a change, time to try a different way of doing things. Exit polls show that the top issues which affected the way that people voted were the scandals and the war in Iraq.
The blue wave did not wash over the mostly Republican 2nd Congressional district, which re-elected Republican incumbent Thelma Drake by a margin of 51.29% to 48.48% over Democratic challenger Phil Kellam (as of this writing, all 153 precincts reporting, no conditional votes included). For that matter, none of the Congressional districts in Virginia changed hands. But as I only observed the Drake/Kellam race up close, I cannot say what happened in the other districts. As for the race in the 2nd, I can only share what I observed.
With the wind of change at his back, this was Kellam’s race to lose. Drake was running the campaign of her life, but that didn’t change the fact that she was a first term Republican incumbent in a time when the mood of the country was to change the course. I thought the Kellam campaign was on track to win this race. The polls were all over the place but I felt that Kellam had an edge. That is, until he backed out of the debates.
Challengers are usually eager to debate incumbents. It is an opportunity to get to voters, to let them see and hear you in a way that a commercial or a mail piece cannot convey. (Not that there was any mail to speak of in this campaign. Seems somewhere along the line, the decision was made on both sides to fight this battle on TV. Also true of the Webb/Allen race. Almost all of the mail I received this election cycle came from third parties.) So I was surprised and bewildered that Kellam would do abandon this opportunity.
Appropriately, the Drake campaign jumped on this. It seemed that the TV ads intensified. The charges flew fast and furiously, with Kellam not really responding. I got a phone call from the NRCC nearly every afternoon for the last couple of weeks, warning of liberal speaker Nancy Pelosi. The mail pieces were all about Kellam wanting to raise taxes. Charges that go unchallenged become truth. In today’s paper, I read comments from people who said they voted for Drake because Kellam was going to raise taxes.
By not participating in the debates, Kellam relinquished an opportunity to reach out and touch voters, to respond to the charges face to face. I’ve said it before – a candidate has to answer two questions: why the incumbent should be fired and why he should be hired. Even in the only televised debate, Kellam only answered the first question. He never gave the voters a reason hire him. Iraq was a topic on which he could have sailed into Congress.
So it was opportunity lost. I suspect that if there were such a thing as do-overs, Kellam would have participated in those debates. He would have articulated his thoughts on Iraq and other issues.
I also suspect that we haven’t heard the last of Phil Kellam. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ran against Drake again in 2008. If so, that campaign starts today. But it won’t be an easy. The first bite at the apple is usually the best chance. Rematches have a way of favoring the first winner. And in politics, two years is a long time.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
If Kellam runs for anything, he needs to resign his current office. Campaigning one year out of a four year term is bad enough. Two out of four is dereliction of duty.
Vivian, do you really think that only the debates did him in? I think message had a lot more to do with it.
Rather, the lack of it.
No, they didn’t do him in. But they halted the momentum he had built up, which is why I called it the turning point. I agree: the lack of message did him in.
I believe Kellam lost because he failed to distinguish himself from Ms. Drake. Despite all the yada yada yada about how conservative VAB is we are not stupid. Had Kellam ever come off as anything but Drake-lite he probably would have won.
FD – that was also a part of the problem. The little message that we did hear from him was to agree with her.
I believe Kellam’s campaign lost for these 4 reasons:
1. No mailings. Democrats complained that the only thing they heard about Kellam was from phone calls, newspapers and television. Literature is important to define the issues and remind supporters to vote for you. Drake’s campaign sent out mailers, independents and her base saw her issues defined. Kellam’s own web site had nothing about what he stood for. How can someone make up their mind if they don’t know where the candidate stands?
2. Canvassing was unorganized and last minute. When I volunteered to canvass for Kellam I was knocking on different doors than what the Kaine campaign did. Why did we knock on doors of people who never vote? No one was home or moved. They should have targeted independents, soft R’s and D’s. Strong D’s could have been targeted with mailings. Kaine’s campaign was awesome by going into R precincts and focusing on D’s and I’s.
Kellam won the precincts in Norfolk in which they canvanssed. Why not canvass all precincts, but watch who you target when you go in?
3. Lack of visibility. I know signs don’t vote, but they show a viable candidate and campaign. Signs let your neighbors, who are not as political, know who you are supporting and may influence their decision. It also reminds people of who they are voting for. In Norfolk and Hampton there was practically zero visibility for Kellam. On my commute to VA Beach I only saw big signs on main roads. All of those neighborhoods in VA Beach and no signs in yards?
One last note: I heard that VA Beach had many precincts without poll workers and some without lots of Kellam signs. Virginia Beach needs precinct organization.
I am sorry he lost. I was rooting for him all the way. I worked as much as I could. The campaign did not do their part.
Ditto to everything TRS said.
Eileen, I gather your insight into Kellam’s race comes from the many, many hours you spent volunteering at his office?
No, which explains why you don’t see too much digestion on the VB Dems site. TRS explanation provides the only insight.
TRS’ 4 points and the lack of message.
I was trying not to get too far into the weeds on what went wrong with the campaign, only to point out when things turned. I don’t disagree with your assessment, TRS, although I have to admit that I didn’t get any mail from Drake. All of the mail I received about her came from 3rd parties. (Actually, it was all anti-Kellam mail.) I did get a lot of mail early on from her – those constituent mailings that were sent out franked.
I think the decision to go on TV so early wasted resources that the campaign needed for mail.
I didn’t know about the problems with canvassing. Targeting is not rocket science, really. Whoever came up with the list must not have been familiar with how things should be done.
As for VB precincts – that is a problem that I heard as well. I’m told that rather than having precinct captains, VB had one person in charge of filling them. That makes no sense to me. (Of course, we had our own problems with some of the Norfolk precincts.)
The sign issue is not from lack of effort. Many yard signs were taken-and these were signs on private property where the campaign had permission to place them. Even some 4X8’s were torn down or cut into shreds and the poles they were on bent so they were useless. I saw in many areas, the Kellam signs were blocked by other signs-Drake and Allen- when only Kellam had permission to place signs on the property.
Also, signs were even removed on Election Day from polling locations-this is the first time I have ever seen that happen.
My 4th Point did not make it up on the post for some reason. I might have deleted by accident when I was typing.
4. Marriage Amendment. Unfortunately for Kellam I believe that there was a last minute push in VA Beach to defeat the marriage amendment. This might have brought out more Evangelical Christians. Did you notice the churches that put the vote yes signs on their property? Since VA Beach is the home of Pat Robertson, I believe there was last minute phone banking to get their people out.
vjp – The mail I received was the 4 pieces she sent out using tax payers money. Since I answered in a survey by the RNC that I was a Democrat they must have taken me off their mailing list. However, I had a campaign staff worker last year that lived with us and registered at our address. He must have been on their mailing list because he received about 5 pieces of lit from the Republican Party.