There is some speculation that yesterday’s concession speech by George Allen was actually the start of his 2008 campaign – to replace a retiring John Warner.
If that is the case, there are going to be some upset folks. I’m hearing that Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore both have their eyes on that seat. Will they step aside to let Allen run? Or are we in for what will likely be a brutal battle for the Republican nomination?
On the Democratic side, who besides Mark Warner will step up?
This is going to be quite interesting. Bring it on!
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran have both spent most of this year jockeying for position in the 2009 governor’s primary, but Mark Warner has upset their plans completely. I don’t see Warner running for the Senate again; his talents are much more managerial. Deeds would make a very interesting US Senate candidate.
I don’t pretend to know what’s going on in Republicans’ heads. I agree with JPTERP that the governor nomination is probably McDonnell’s to lose, but I’d love to see Gilmore run again, just so we could remind voters of the fiscal trainwreck he engineered last time.
And Virgil Goode? He’s got some ‘splainin’ to do about his ties with the defense contractor who was bribing Randy Cunningham.
Allen’s early exit certainly indicates that he has something in mind; he’s not the kind to just give up like that. Whether it’s 2008 or 2009 will be interesting to see. Not that I can think straight about Allen right now. I just spent two days and part of a sunny afternoon observing the Norfolk canvass, and now nobody needs my results. Concession, schmession. 🙂
I think that if Mark Warner expresses an interest in running for Governor again, you will see Brian Moran run in ’08. If he’s still only rumored to be considering it, Moran will stay in contention for the Governorship in ’09.
Moran for Senate ~ has a nice ring 😉
I agree that Warner is unlikely to run for Senate. I’d just about put money on another run for Gov in ’09.
Vivian,
The dynamics of Senate elections are really simple. The party that controls the seat is in the drivers seat. We allowed Warner to win re-election in 2002 with more than 80% of the vote. We are not going to win that seat in 2008 if Warner retires. It would be an empty exercise. Remember when Ollie North outspent Senator Robb in 94 only to lose in a three-way race? He lost because Senator Robb won more than 60% in 1988. North’s run set the stage for Robb’s eventual defeat by Allen in 2000. Had we run a credible challenger in 2002, that seat would be winnable. It is not. Whoever wins the GOP nomination battle will win the seat.
I disagree. A lot has changed since then, not to mention the fact that John Warner is respected by folks on both sides of the aisle. We can win that seat – no question in my mind.
I think the reason John Warner was reelected with more than 80% was because he’s a good Senator. I don’t agree with all of his policies, but he has crossed over party lines on issues such as stem cell research.
Perhaps the the thing I like the most about John Warner is he’s a Senator who takes the time to respond to his constituents. I have written him several times and he has always written back. Warner even responded to a letter that I sent to John Murtha and CC’d him on.
Indeed. This partisan Dem is fairly inclined to vote Dem in most elections, but Warner’s done a decent job (you know, when he’s not voting for torture and eviscerating the fundamental underpinings of this country). This, of course, makes him a relic with no place in the modern GOP. Almost enough to make you feel bad for the guy. And then you remember the habeas corpus vote.
~
Moran for Senate? A risky proposition. He’s got fairly soft support among Dems, I think. That is to say, we’d vote FOR him, but I’m not sure how hard we’d work for him. I think he’s just fine, where he is.
Like many others, I’d love to see Allen or Gilmore run again. That’s a color by numbers campaign. Hell, I could come up with a half dozen candidates now who could beat those jokers.
I like both Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds, and would love to see them hash it out for public support.
Davis is the most dangerous Republican to watch for. Fairly personable, not ideologically driven, and a fair record behind him, he’d be a tough opponent. Also, he thinks it’s getting time for the GOP to pay him back with a Sen nomination. Feeling like you deserve it gets you a fair way through the process.
Allen’s future? He’ll have an entirely too comfortable existence on K Street. I look forward to bumping into him and telling him what an appalling job he did.
George Allen’s career is far from over. With another Senate run possible in ’08, or a gubernatorial run potentially available in ’09, I am sure he will try again, and by then, he will have been able to have left a lot of this behind him. Change the tone of his campaign, and he should be able to put forth another good run.
Allen is dead meat! Persona non grata in the Republican Party!!! The R’s blame him for running such a foolish campaign and losing the Senate… The people of VA sent him a strong message with THEIR “Welcome to the real Virginia!” vote. The only folks who will miss him are the late-night comedians! Too much shoddy baggage to carry… He’s been branded. I’m not surprised that the Republican party hasn’t taken their official dunce cap back from Foley and given it to him… And he will have his NAACP lifetime membership to continually haunt him… It’s time to pack his noose, flag, made-up words, and, like all good cowboys – ride off into the sunset. Perhaps he’ll accept a position teaching law at Regent University…
In reference to Mark Warner he’s going to be a hot commodity for the VP slot. Dems are going to want to flip Virginia in ’08 and having Warner on the ticket will go a long way towards that objective. It will also position Warner for a strong presidential run down the road.
I think he takes the option if the right candidate comes along. The demands on a VP candidate also aren’t as demanding as going the presidential route. He’d be looking at 4 to 5 months of serious campaigning instead of the 18 month option as a presidential candidate.
Brian Moran would be a solid candidate in ’08. I’m not giving up on Bobby Scott either. Jim Webb was averse to working the phones too, and was still able to generate a large number of online contributions ($900,000 through ACT Blue), simply because people viewed him as a viable and worthy candidate. I don’t know the number through his campaign website, but would guess that he probably pulled in $1.5 to $2 million thanks to the internet. Online contributions change the dynamic a bit.