John Warner is running

Local, Politics, Virginia 1 Minute

According to the Virginian-Pilot, John Warner will be running in 2008.

Because of “the ever-increasing complexity of our nation’s security situation…. I have decided to devote my full time to security responsibilities in the Senate and the demands of a vigorous and challenging re-election campaign.”

OK, so where does that leave everybody? My predictions:

  • No one will challenge Warner for the Republican nomination
  • A Democratic challenger is highly unlikely (cannon fodder, anybody?)
  • Mark Warner will likely run for governor in 2009, which means:
    • Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds will run downticket – AG and LG, in some order. (Have to say I think Deeds should go for LG and Moran for AG because I don’t want to see Creigh run against McDonnell again)
    • Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell will run downticket, most likely for reelection in their current positions, because
    • Jim Gilmore (or maybe – slight chance – George Allen) will be the Republican nominee for governor.

So – thoughts?

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22 thoughts on “John Warner is running”

  2. One other thing. I don’t profess to be an expert on Republican thinking, but I don’t see Bolling or, especially, McDonnell stepping aside for Jim Gilmore. They both have to see that the fiscal mess Gilmore created in his last term, pushing car tax repeal and spending increases at the same time, created the divide that exists in the Virginia GOP today. They also have egos (what politician doesn’t?), and both must believe that this is their time. I am convinced that McDonnell will not back off from a primary fight; his $2 million smear job of Steve Baril in 2005 proved that. Maybe, just maybe, he’d step back for Allen, but Gilmore? No.

  3. Bryan – Moran won’t run for Senate. There is little to be gained for him to do so. Yes, he’s been a great Caucus Chair, but to run against John Warner would be a very difficult race.

    Something that has come out on other blogs is the possibility of a closed Republican primary. If that is possible (and I’m not sure that it is), Warner could lose in the primary. That would put a totally different spin on things.

    Randy – I’m not sure that it would be so much of a stepping aside as simply a case of fate. Gilmore is itching to run against M Warner, mainly because Warner ran against Gilmore’s record. I think Gilmore could win a Republican primary on the same car tax repeal platform.

  4. Warner won’t lose a republican primary. Only nutjobs would run against him in a primary. I guess my reliable source was very reliable when she said that John Warner told her, just after the election, that he would run again.

    Mark Warner won’t run against John Warner, been there, done that, bad outcome.

    I don’t know anyone who wants a return of Governor Giveless. The man is a legend in his own mind. But nowhere else.

  5. I’m aware that Gilmore is itching to run, Vivian. I’m just not convinced that he’s the nominee if he does. What I think is that there are people who believe they can beat Gilmore in a primary, and are willing to take the risk.

  6. The fact no one seems likely to provide Warner a serious challenge for his senate seat is rather pathetic. Warner has been an unremarkable senator. Whatever the issue, lukewarm best describes his position. Shows us all the power of incumbency.

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