According to the Virginian-Pilot, John Warner will be running in 2008.
Because of “the ever-increasing complexity of our nation’s security situation…. I have decided to devote my full time to security responsibilities in the Senate and the demands of a vigorous and challenging re-election campaign.”
OK, so where does that leave everybody? My predictions:
- No one will challenge Warner for the Republican nomination
- A Democratic challenger is highly unlikely (cannon fodder, anybody?)
- Mark Warner will likely run for governor in 2009, which means:
- Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds will run downticket – AG and LG, in some order. (Have to say I think Deeds should go for LG and Moran for AG because I don’t want to see Creigh run against McDonnell again)
- Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell will run downticket, most likely for reelection in their current positions, because
- Jim Gilmore (or maybe – slight chance – George Allen) will be the Republican nominee for governor.
So – thoughts?
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
My thought is that John Warner will be 80 years old in a couple of months.
He’s going for Strom Thurmond’s record.
If we want to get out of Iraq we need to challenge JOHN Warner.
If Senator Warner does run for reelection I believe that the Democratic candidate will probably a person who is just emerging on the statewide scene and, thus, could use this opportunity to gain name recognition and spread his message.
Certainly Warner will have AT LEAST a Dem. challenger in 2008, the only person RIGHT NOW, that I think could beat him is Mark Warner. The national political atmosphere in 2008 may be able to impact it as well. Who knows.
The fact that Warner will be 81 (meaning he’ll be 87 before his term ends) might concern a lot of voters.
If we decide that Warner is unbeatable, the certainly we cannot beat him. But if we want to end the war then we will have to find a way to beat him.
At this point, I don’t know who besides Mark could beat John. (Of course, the same could be said about Allen a little earlier this year.) But I don’t think Mark will run against John (again).
It is possible that someone could emerge.
I would say Beyer, but it looks like too many are more interested in keeping grudges from the primary than ending the war.
There is Grisham. I think a strong anti-war candidate who has won an election, GA, municipal, whatever, could beat Warner. The war will only get worse. But not if we are going to turn a blind eye to what is going on.
It is possible that someone could emerge.
Let me be the first to nominate you Vivian, heh, 🙂
What about Wilder?
None of the established Democrats are going to waste an election cycle running against John Warner. Mark Warner, especially, will avoid it; his management skills are wasted in a legislative body anyway. It will take a newcomer, another Jim Webb, with foreign policy credentials to match Warner’s. Anyone for an Anthony Zinni draft? He lives in Williamsburg, or at least he did a year ago when he was on the state BRAC Commssion.
Terry – I’ve been cannon fodder once. No need to do that again 😉 And Jack – I doubt if Wilder would be interested. I suspect he is pretty happy being mayor of Richmond. Randy hit on why I don’t think it will be Mark – can’t imagine him being anything other than the leader, not a member of the pack following.
Zinni is fine with me. He has not won an election, but otherwise I am OK with him.
What bothers me is that those who oppose the war seem unwilling to hold JOHN Warner accountable.
If Senator Warner runs for reelection, then Gov. Warner will probably run for governor in ’09.
If Gov. Warner runs for governor in ’09, Brian Moran will run for Senate in ’08.
So if Senator Warner runs for reelection, I think Brian Moran will run for Senate.
Moran has done a great job as the leader of the Democratic Caucus down in Richmond and did a lot to help out Democrats running this year, which means that he is likely to have the support of many Democrats. When it comes to beating Warner, however, I think it will be tough for a candidate from either party to overcome Warner’s name recognition.