I’ve long thought that Mark Warner will not run for Senate in 2008, and this New York Observer piece seems to back that up. It is looking more and more like Tom Davis will be the Republican candidate. His trip down here for the Republican Party of Virginia Beach’s breakfast certainly wasn’t because he was checking out the scenery.
So who do you think the Democratic candidate will be or should be?
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Whatever he does end up doing, I hope Mark Warner will let people know soon for the sake of Virginia’s democratic donors. A lot of people are ponying up money to Brian Moran as well as Creigh Deeds under the assumption that one of them will be the eventual democratic nominee, and they wouldn’t have to put so much money into financing these campaigns if Warner was going to jump in–he’s so well known and popular he can probably afford to not spend quite so much, and he’s been successful enough in business that he can underwrite a huge chunk of whatever campaign he does run.
On the other hand, if he does jump in, it will be nice to have two potential candidates like Creigh and Brian who have been raising so aggressively to fill in as the LG and AG nominees. Those probably aren’t the jobs they were looking for, but there’s not a lot they’d be able to spend all that money on before 2013.
I’m not sure which other Democrat could win the next U.S. Senate race. I don’t know who else but Mark Warner has the statewide following. But, of course, back in 2005 and early 2006, our prospects were just as unpromising for that Senate race.
I think the NY Observer article made a lot of good points, especially that Mark Warner may be more interested in another gubernatorial race. Especially if John Warner decides to run again. Mark and John have developed a good working relationship and a mutual respect. I take Mark Warner at his word that he won’t run against John Warner for that reason.
But I also have long thought the conventional wisdom about governors having a better shot at the presidency has changed. Post 9/11 – and especially for Democrats – not having experience in foreign affairs and national defense would be viewed as shortcomings.
The ideal candidate for the Dems, who still have to work to get the public’s trust on national security, would be a successful governor who also served a term in the Senate and built up those other credentials in foreign affairs, national security and defense.
Should Mark Warner decide not to run, I would hope a proven rock solid Democrat, Robert C. “Bobby” Scott VA-03 would at least consider running for the Senate in 2008.
Is it too late for Doug Wilder?
Neither Creigh Deeds nor Brian Moran will run for the Senate. I have spoken with both them multiple times on this issue. Creigh wants office in Virginia. Brian does not want to be running statewide at the same time his brother is on the ballot, and even pointing out the parallel examples of the Salazars in CO and the Levins in MI did not change his mind. Both are positioning for 2009.
Mark W has not yet made up his mind. He has three options (1) Senate, but if he announced for that that precludes (2) VP slot; and (3) Governor
He made clear in a recent event on bealf of Marty Martinez in Leesburg that he is not yet done with public service.
I do not think Bobby Scott wants to run statewide. The only other name that would come immediately to mind would be Don Beyer, but we tried to talk him into running against Allen back inf the fall of ’05 and he was not interested. He would not take on John Warner, but might well be willing to run against Davis or someone else. Remember, he did win statewide twice, and still has a lot of contacts around the state.
Two other names that have been mentioned are author John Grisham who served in the Miss. legislature before moving near C’VIlle, and Gen. Tony Zinni, who says he’s not interested in politics, but possibly could be prevailed upon by Webb.
I think in ’05 Beyer was more interested in helping Warner run for President than running for Senate. I wouldn’t be surpised if his ambitions have changed, especially if Obama isn’t the nominee.
As for other names, I think Creigh or Brian could be pressed into running for Senate if Warner goes for Governor. Outside of them, someone who would give Tom Davis fits is Ward Armstrong.
Regardless, the Democratic Party of Virginia will have a candidate in ’08 for Senate – and they will have all the support in the world because Virginia is VERY winnable.
I’ve talked to Bobby Scott about it in the past and he doesn’t want to run. I also understand Creigh & Brian aren’t interested.
Beyer makes the most sense to me.
The uncertainty surrounding Warner is forcing everyone else to play a waiting game. Not a real problem for 2009 but with the Senate race in 2008, it would be nice to have some clarity on what Warner is going to do.
So forgive my apparent basic ignorance, but is Obama’s emergence really the reason that Warner dropped out? It’s actually the first explanation that makes any kind of sense to me, but that option seems to require either an unlike reticence, or an even more unlikely patience, on Warner’s part. Someone help? (See, this is where the anon commenter could actually be helpful.)
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I really don’t know who would work best against Tom Davis. I just know that – without Mark Warner – I’d rather face pretty much any other GOP candidate than Davis (and that is not a “don’t throw me in the briar patch, B’rer Rabbit” statement).
MB – the official answer for Warner’s withdrawal from the presidential race was to spend more time with his family. And from what I’ve heard him say, there’s a lot of truth in that.
Personally, I think it would be best for the party if Warner ran for Governor. I am somewhat bemused by the comment of 2013 and how Moran and Deeds would be the contenders if Warner bumped them in 2009. I have spoken to some legislators and they are not willing to give Moran and Deeds a pass past 2009. Unless Kaine comes back in 2013 I think Democrats are going to be given an opportunity to turn elsewhere. Of course by 2013 the Commonwealth could be suffering from Democratic exhaustion with 3 straight Dem Governors.
Andy Hurst wouldn’t do it, but I would love for him to run for Senate. He has learned how to be a candidate, and once people downstate got to know him they would love him.
I haven’t spoken to Bobby Scott in years, but I assume he wants to be committee chair, same with Boucher.
I would love for Don to take another swing, but I don’t think he wants to run. I think he would rather be Sec. of Commerce in the next adminstration, or possibly Ambassador to Sweden. Although I haven’t talked to him.
Vivian — Is Wilder just too old at 76? He was a damned fine governor, if you don’t mind a White Republican’s saying so. I wish he’d run against Warner last time, rather than trying to take on Robb in a primary. But he’s still the mayor of Richmond, isn’t he? Last I could tell, he had more wits about him than Strom Thermond did when he was last elected, and more wits than Kennedy (75) and Byrd (89) do now.
To tell the truth, I liked him better than I like Tom Davis.
Whoever the GOP puts up will be vulnerable, but no Democrat besides Warner excites me. Then again, it’s not fair to say Moran/Deeds/whoever is behind in the count before they’ve even gotten to the batter’s box.
AEM – I don’t know Wilder well enough to say one way or the other but honestly, I can’t imagine that he would run at his age.
Did someone say vice-president mark warner, former gov. from a southern state that might go blue next year with the right vp, dems. never play well in the south, but va. could be in play this time. than again it depends who’s on top [not a hillary joke].