I fully expected we would have heard from former Governor Mark Warner by now. After all, it’s been more than a week since Senator John Warner announced his retirement. Perhaps the reason that we have not heard from Mark is that he hasn’t made his decision yet. So let me take his silence as an opportunity to urge him to just say no.
Actually, I did this in person last Monday at Congressman Bobby Scott’s Labor Day picnic. Let me reiterate what I said to him then (and earlier at Ralph Northam’s event): what may be good for the U.S. may not be good for Virginia.
I don’t believe that Mark’s temperment is suited for the Senate but I think I know one reason why he is entertaining the idea: as my friend bwana says, it’s because of SWMBO 😉 Warner’s wife doesn’t want to move, especially not back to Richmond. Nevertheless, I think another run for governor, should he not be a VP or cabinet pick, is a better choice. In the Senate, Mark would be just one voice of 100, not the “in charge” guy he is used to being. No doubt his election would be helpful to national Democrats, but what, exactly, does that do for Virginia?
With Mark at the top of the ticket, I see no reason why a Democratic sweep of all of the races wouldn’t be the end result. That puts Virginia Democrats in a great position for 2013 and beyond, especially if Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds are downballot as LG and AG, respectively. If Mark were to run for Senate, Moran and Deeds fight it out for governor, but who runs for AG and LG? Sure, I could come up with some names, but I think we would be hard pressed to say with any certainty that the coattails of either Moran or Deeds would be strong enough to carry the LG and AG races. That’s not a knock on either of them, just what I see from where I sit.
No doubt it would also help Democrats running in the House of Delegates, which will also be up for election in 2009. Many people think that attaining a Democratic majority there will not happen in 2007. In addition to defending the 2007 pickups, Democrats will have to go after more seats in 2009. That is going to be a tough fight. Think this year’s races are costly? Just wait until 2009.
All of this leads to the ability to control redistricting in 2011. Who better to lead this effort than Mark Warner? Even if, by some chance, the Democrats don’t get a majority in 2009, Warner has proven that he can work across the aisle and would no doubt lead the charge for non-partisan, or at least bipartisan, redistricting.
Finally, by running for the Senate, Mark Warner is closing some doors. Off the table would be a chance at being a VP pick, or being a member of the new administration. These should be enough reasons to bypass the Senate race, but then there’s SWMBO 🙂
Interestingly enough, when I spoke to Mark, others around me – none of whom I knew – voiced their agreement. I was surprised, as I thought most folks would rather he run for Senate. I do know that other, more influential, folks are also telling him to forego a Senate run.
I truly believe all politics is local and I’m more concerned about the politics of my state than those of the nation. However, despite my differences with Mark, I will support whatever he chooses.
Oh, and in case he doesn’t run, let me throw out a few names that I have heard mentioned as possible Senate candidates: Don Beyer, L.F. Payne and Rick Boucher. From what I know of these three, the Democrats would still win the seat, especially if the Republicans nominate former Governor Jim Gilmore. And that’s the beauty of Mark bypassing a Senate run: Democrats everywhere would come out ahead 😉
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VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
It’s all about 2009. Would I love to have both VA Senate seats in the hands of Democrats? Of course. The redistricting in 2011 will set the table up for the next ten years. A myopic vision of an instant gratification win could doom Democrats to another decade of sharing or not having power with the Republicans instead of being able to control legislation. I agree Viv…excellent post.
Horse hockey.
Mark Warner has the option of serving all of America (even including Virginia) by helping the Democrats get a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. As part of such a solid majority, he could help end George Bush’s misbegotten war and then work to restore America’s honor in the world. He could help secure health care to all Americans. He could help promote economic equity across the land. He could help save what’s left of America’s environmental resources.
Strong Democratic majorities in the U.S. Senate (and House) could do all these things. Add so much, much more. Mark Warner in the Senate could be a part of all that.
Realistically, how much good can a Democratic governor do in a state like Virginia? Get a few million more to rebuild crumbling roads? Scratch together a few hundred thousand more for teachers’ salaries? Maybe commute one death sentence? Realistically, though Warner gets (and deserves) much of the credit for preventing Virginia’s slide even further into fiscal horrors, how much of true, lasting value did he actually accomplish during four years?
I live in Virginia, and I’d like to see a hell of a lot of good things happen here. But I don’t see much happening any time soon. Virginia hasn’t been a state of leaders for a long, long time. More often, Virginia plays catch up (or is pulled into the modern world by U.S. Supreme Courts rulings on civil rights and other issues).
So I hope Warner goes for the Senate. There are some more-than-okay second-tier candidates who could put up good fights for governor and, with hard work by Democrats across the state, very likely could win in the current climate. Maybe Mark Warner would make a slightly better governor, I don’t know — but I do know that a U.S. Senate would make a better country.
Go for the Senate, Mark. Please!
For what it’s worth, I thought Mark Waner should have been our Senate candidate in 2006 (when Jim Webb was not even on the radar) and he should be Virginia’s Democratic Senate candidate in 2008.
I expect Mark Warner will make an announcement this week, make his first formal speech as a candidate at the DPVA meeting in Fredericksburg Saturday, and be greeted with chants of “Run Mark Run” at his annual pig roast later on in the day.
Vivian has some good points and makes some persuasive arguments for why Mark Warner should run for governor.
But she lives in Richmond and I live close to DC so I have a different perspective. I don’t think he has the temperment to stay in the Senate for many years to come. But I think his best shot at an eventual presidential run in 2012 or 2016 would be a term or two in the Senate to burnish the great credentials he already has as a very successful and popular governor.
The conventional wisdom used to be that governors were more successful in presidential races than sitting senators. But 9/11 and the mistakes in Iraq overturned the conventional wisdom.
People are looking for leaders with broader experience in national security, foreign affairs, and military affairs. If Mark Warner gets some of that experience in addition to his obvious skills at the state executive level, I think he’d be in a good position for a run at the presidency later on.
That’s assuming he’s still actually interested in it after his daughters are older and he can commit to a grueling nationwide race. But I think he has the talent and ability to reach for the stars here.
Viv lives in Norfolk, actually. More to the point, I respectfully disagree with your opinion that 9/11 overturned conventional wisdom on the electability of United States Senators. The *last* Senator we democrats ran for President didn’t get elected, either. I’m not seeing a wellspring of information that Americans at large watched some airplanes crash into some buildings and thought to themselves “if only we’d elected someone who had spent some time in the United States Senate.”
Indeed, I think there’s a lot of evidence out there that suggests that Americans don’t know *what* qualifies or prepares someone to be President. And I likewise see a lot of signs supporting what ought to be conventional wisdom: generally, the candidates who perform best are the ones with the best organization, and not necessarily the ones with the brightest ideas or the broadest resumes.
I disagree with Vivian about his gubernatorial run primarily because as a Democrat, I’m looking at what’s going to put a Dem in the White House next year, as well as what’s going to make some House districts (like the one Vivian lives in) competitive. I think Mark Warner helps downballot candidates more than any other Dem, and I think he has the resources to compete widely in the state in a hybrid Warner/Kaine model as opposed to the nearly-disproven “only compete in Northern VA” model of 2006. Either way, though, I hope Mr. Warner does what he feels is best for him; I have nothing but respect for the man personally, and I think he knows better than anyone how he wants to contribute to the future of Virginia.
Actually, I live in Norfolk 🙂 (Oops – I see anonymous beat me to it)
By the way, I didn’t write this with any intention of changing anyone’s mind. I wrote it because it is what I believe. Others can believe differently (even you, K).
what does SWMBO mean again?
She Who Must Be Obeyed (Pronounced SWAMBO)
Vivian….thanks for the analysis…I am one who wanted Warner to run for the Senate (because he could do multi terms…but there’s no guarantee that he would stay in the Senate till he retires….) So if he decides to run for Va Gov instead you have given me reason to like that decision….
I think Mosquito referred tacitly to a very important point, and that is this: no matter what Mark Warner decides to do, we as Virginia Democrats are far better off to have Mark Warner involved in statewide politics than we are with him being a cheerleader on the sidelines. Reportedly we’re going to hear this week what his ultimate decision will be, and at the end of the day, whatever news we get will be good news for our party.