Lowell over at RK and Ben at NLS have both posted their predictions for some races in this year’s elections. Lowell’s list is more extensive, while Ben focuses on the ones where he sees the party changing.
I’m still amazed at how few folks I talk to at various events have been paying attention to the races down here. Sure, the party folks are aware but it seems that the election just hasn’t penetrated the consciousness of the masses, which is a shame since we’ve got some great candidates in Hampton Roads. One, Steve Heretick, was the focus of a story in today’s Virginian-Pilot.
After today’s tax filing deadline, I’ll be helping out the campaigns down here as much as I can. And I predict that there will be some surprises in Hampton Roads 😉
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I agree, Vivian. I suspect that a substantial part of the Nova bloggers’ not paying attention is that Ralph Northam and John Miller have been so dominant as candidates that anyone upstate looking for information about what’s going on in Hampton Roads is going to keep hearing those two names early.
And there may also be a bit of NOVA blinders from Dems upstate who thought all the State Senate races were going to be in Fairfax this year and that the Dem resurgence would concentrate on Fairfax County. It tends to shake up the conventional wisdom or Northern VA when the strongest Virginia Dems are coming from Tidewater. 🙂
Actually, I”ve been closely following races across the state. If you have evidence that Steve Heretick is more competitive than I’ve got him at, please email me at lowell@raisingkaine.com. Thanks.
Don’t be surprised if Rerras pulls out the victory. Northam’s mailings are going to come back and bite him. It was stated by Northam in the VA Pilot that he can’t think of or verify an instance in which Rerras didn’t support funding with regards to Mental Illness. There is more support for Rerras on the ES than you might think.
How come no one is predicting the Farlow vs. Pogge race?
I think the farlow race will be interesting. the fact that pogge is still not considered the actual winner in the repub primary is still in the conversation down here. so if pogge and the independent split votes, it may help farlow.
it is sad what happened there. I just want to know, did they use the foia act to get this info on him or what?
no predictions here.
linda b,
why do you think it is sad? He was not honest about the situation on 2 levels, 1-He never came forward with the info 2-He lied to his own supporters about what actually happened. He also is basically calling the VA State Police liars for their account for the story.
I think the issue is more one of Rerras being uninformed and mentally unsound himself than being about his voting record on mental health issues.
rlewis, I think it is sad that this happened, he worked hard in the distsrict. I am not saying he is not responsible. just sad.
How about a 20/20 split in the Senate with Dems picking up seats in the 1st, 34th and 39th districts?
Viv thats why I do not think you can take Ben’s and Lowell’s predictions too seriously at this point. I am sure there is alot of hopes built in but as you point alot there are far too many people neglecting the local races and paying far too much attention to 2008 in my opinion. As you always have said, all politics is local but it just hasn’t really kicked in yet.
Vivian,
You know I am out in the community everyday and I can tell you unfortunately Rerras will be extremely hard to beat. I hope Northam has been doing things remarkable under the radar because Rerras clearly is winning the sign wars. This is just from daily being in the neighborhoods. Walking to a union members door with Rerras signs and having to explain his 0% voting record in the General Assembly for working class Americans has managed to turn some from Rerras to undecided but it is a very tough job out there.
The Farlow-Pogge race comes down to Republicans simply always picking the Republican with no questions asked. A miracle is needed in that district.
Mathieson and Bouchard have little visual presence, however in my dealings with the public it seems Bobby is doing a great job.
The John Miller race in the 1st is simply going to come down to turnout and who turns out. If moderates and independants turn out for John he will win, if only the radicals turn out (lord help us) Trish (my way or the highway) Stalls could pull it out.
Norfolk voters love Nick even though there is NO reason why they should. It cannot be explained by any use of logic or intelligence. I suppose that is why Ralph used the demon ads, trying to address voters on some “other” level. It is a rarity to see a candidate of the quality of Ralph Northam. If the voters of Norfolk reject him for the likes of Nick Rerras, that would be a travesty. We need to hit the streets and let the voters know what the truth is.
Wow. Wonder what you guys will say when I do make some predictions? 🙂
JScott – thanks for understanding my point. I go to a lot of events, and few people are talking about the local races. The upcoming barrage of TV ads ought to change that.
GEM – signs don’t vote. Lots of folks have signs that aren’t even registered voters! Sure, it looks good, but it just doesn’t translate.
Lowell – I don’t ever divulge information about campaigns without permission. Suffice it to say that Heretick can win.
When are you coming out with predictions?
About 10 days before the election.
The recent poll by the Republicans showed Miller beating Stall 70% to 30% if the election were held on October 1st. This set Stall into a negative campaign mode that has her hurling accusations around about Miller that are going to come back and bite her, real hard. The Virginia Senate Republican Leadership Trust sent out flyers in June that stated (I am quoting directly) “Tricia Stall is not fit for public office” and “Tricia Stall will close public schools completely”. I think when Republican voters get a gander at these charges, made by people, who are currently on Stall’s staff, the 30% she’s got will quickly abandon her. So I believe the 1st Senate District is in the Dems column.
Rerras has alienated a lot of folks in the district and his lunatic fringe religious beliefs are being exposed. People are sick of the Republican mismanagement and the the regional taxing authority has been the last straw for most. I think Northam is going to do a lot better than most give him credit.
The question I’ve got, is this: Will the Democrats sieze the opportunity to fix the mess made by the Republicans, or go about business as usual and forget why they have been given another chance to rule the state?
You have a lot of Republicans, myself included, who are sick of the Republicans leadership that has given us the biggest tax increases in Virginia history, regional government, a state budget that has grown over 125% and the broken car tax promise. I have voted Republican for the past 12 years. I won’t vote Republican this year, or any other year, they are in the majority. I find, that in talking with fellow Republicans that they too are sick of the lies and broken promises and want an alternative. In my case, the 1st Senate District, I have a good choice. John Miller is a hard working, decent, honest citizen who has proven he cares about the community and anyone that has ever met him, knows he’s a good decent guy.
I hope the same can be said for Northam and the other candidates who are running against entrenched Republicans. I am saddened that the Democrats didn’t run someone against Glenn Oder. I am forced to vote for an independent who has had no money for advertising, but I can’t vote for Oder. He is one of the major reasons there is such a foul smell in Richmond. (Yes pun intended)
I think the Democrats will do a lot better than anyone is giving them credit for, because there are so many unhappy former Republicans, like myself, who want to punish the party who has betrayed us and abandoned their principles.