Predictions on Pilot endorsements

The Virginian Pilot will be announcing their endorsements over the next few days in the eight competitive races we have here in South Hampton Roads. Two things to remember:

• The Pilot is biased in favor of incumbents.
• A challenger has to answer why the incumbent should be fired and why s/he should be hired.

Missing from the Pilot’s announced criteria is whether or not they think the candidate can win. As best as I can determine, electability is not a factor in these endorsements. With those things in mind, I predict the following endorsements, split into three groups based on the difficulty of the Pilot’s choices.

Hard

Bet you thought I was going to start with “easy,” didn’t you? 🙂 Well, the only easy races to make an endorsement in are the ones in which there is no challenger. Truth be told, every challenger has his merits. But in these three races, the power of incumbency has proven to be too much to overcome. Expect the Pilot to say such things as “experience” and “seniority,” especially in the House races where the Republicans are likely to retain the majority.

• 14th Senate – Incumbent Republican Harry Blevins
• 78th House – Incumbent Republican John Cosgrove
• 82nd House – Incumbent Republican Bob Purkey

Harder

In these four races, the challenger has waged a credible race or the seat is open.

• 13th Senate – Incumbent Republican Fred Quayle. In 2003, the Pilot said, “Quayle is, in fact, a moderate Republican in the Chichester mold. He understands this region’s needs.” I expect similar language this year.
• 83rd House – Democrat Joe Bouchard. Despite the fact that the Republican candidate for this open seat, Chris Stolle, is the Senator’s younger brother, Bouchard brings valuable experience to the position.
• 87th House – Incumbent Democrat Paula Miller. In 2005, the Pilot said, “…she seems precisely the kind of thoughtful, solutions-driven servant voters hoped for…” I do not expect the Pilot to be as critical of her opponent in this race as they were in 2005.
• 6th Senate – Democratic challenger Ralph Northam. In its 2003 endorsement of Andy Protogyrou over incumbent Republican Nick Rerras, the Pilot said, “… his [Rerras’] performance gives little confidence that he will ever be more than a marginal figure in the Republican-controlled Senate.” With the Democratic majority in the Senate all but assured, Rerras would become even more marginalized, something that the Pilot considered in its endorsement of Thelma Drake last year. Northam has not only waged a credible campaign, but he has answered both of the Pilot’s questions.

Hardest

The battle between incumbent Republican John Welch and Democratic challenger Bobby Mathieson has been hard fought. Welch did not have a challenger in 2005. Going back to 2003, the Pilot grudgingly gave the endorsement to Welch over another former police officer. Not much has changed in the intervening four years since the Pilot wrote, “Democrat Tim Jackson shares our concerns about the direction Virginia is taking; Welch hardly any.” At the same time, the news department – which is not a part of the editorial board – has been particularly hard on the Mathieson campaign, which the editorial board likely has noticed. Welch disagrees with the Pilot’s stance on redistricting, while Mathieson disagrees with its stance on transportation.

If there were a race in which the Pilot did not issue an endorsement, this would be it. But I don’t think they will do that.

I won’t be surprised if the Pilot endorses Welch, but I think they are going to endorse Mathieson.

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We’ll see how well I did in these predictions in a few days 🙂 In the meantime, take a trip down memory lane and review the 2003 and 2005 endorsements. You can find the 2003 House endorsements here, the Senate endorsements here and the 2005 House endorsements here.