Hillary Clinton won PA last night by 10 points, a significant margin. A look at map of where she won was as revealing as anything about the broad nature of her support that has played out time and time again.
Two things that have come out of this primary that deserve comment. First, I’ve read the argument that Clinton won because PA is racist. That particular argument just boggles the mind. Yes, there are racists in PA, just as there are racists everywhere. But to blame the entire loss on racism is quite a stretch. After all, if whites had voted for Clinton in the same percentages as blacks voted for Obama (some put that number at 90% or better), Clinton’s victory would have been much, much larger, especially since more than 80% of the voters are white. So let’s just put that one to rest.
Another issue goes back to a question I raised a long time ago about Republicans voting in Democratic primaries. The argument was that Republicans were crossing over to vote for Hillary because she was the candidate that they wanted to face in the fall. I thought it was BS then and I certainly think it’s BS now. According to the AP:
The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party, and even more were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.
Most of those new Democrats were mobilized to come out for Obama, and they were nearly one-fifth of Obama’s supporters. Even the former Republicans favored Obama over Clinton
There goes that idea, so can we put it to bed now?
Finally, there’s this scary bit from one exit poll:10% of the voters said that they would be voting for McCain in the fall. Of that 10%, of those who supported Obama, 70% said that they would be voting for McCain. If that is even remotely true, we’ve got a problem here, folks.
(edited for clarity)
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
You do have a problem. If Hillary is given the nomination by the supers, the Black will stay home or vote for McCain. (Never mind the riots.) If Obama wins, the blue collar workers will stay home or vote for McCain.
This convention is going to be the best reality TV in years!
As much as I’d like to think 70% of Obama voters would support McCain, that isn’t the case. You read the exit poll wrong.
The poll said that among the 1 in 10 primary voters who would back McCain over Clinton in a general election, 70% of them voted for Obama.
In other words, 7% of the total primary electorate were Obama backers who’d switch to McCain if Clinton won, which translates to about 15% of Obama voters becoming McCainiacs in the general election.
I thought that’s what I said – 10% of the voters were McCain supporters and of that 10%, 70% of those supporting Obama said they would be voting for McCain. I cleaned up my post to make my intent clearer.
Before we invest too much thought on this election, please keep in mind that lying to exit poll takers is the true, if secret, national pastime.
Vivian,
I can only deal with what I see every day at the shipyard. The African Americans are constantly telling me that the party will somehow find a way to take it away from Obama. I hear this daily because I am on a crew with 13 African Americans and myself. I am the lone white blue collar worker. I’m telling you that if the superdelegate take it away I will have an extremely hard time getting the african American community involved for a long time. They might come around sooner or later but I am just not sure if it will be in time. Remember that the African American community feels a sense of pride that Obama has made it this far, and if they sense any wrong doing at all the Democrats will probably be in trouble. I personally am tired of the whole damn thing. I love my Democrats but this whole affair is getting old quick and demoralizing.
Vivian,
I’d love to see cross tabs on these exit polls. I don’t usually give much credence to exit polls because I’ve seen some serioius margins of errors and honestly, these numbers on both sides seem very skewed. While the number sampled is good, the sampling methods for exit polls are typically heavy in one area (due to time contraints).
I also don’t find it plausable that of the 6% of those who would not vote in November- that 95% of those are Obama supporters. That’s pretty skewed.
Sorry to get wonkish.
So, good win for HRC. Contrats to her and supporters.
Also, was anyone else surprised about the 16% that Ron Paul brought in????
Gene – would you please stop playing the race card?
All – note that in mentioning the exit poll, I said “even remotely true.” I know there are issues with exit polls. I mentioned that only because the whole idea that all of the crossover voters are going to stick with Obama in the fall is not true.
You should be justly proud of your candidate taking “The Low Road to Victory” (New York Times Editorial – April 23, 2008)
and doing John McCain’s work for him
Check out the N. Carolina GOP chair’s using Hillary’s tactics to justify hew own running some more racist commercials, which they are famous for (“they” being Billary & N. Carolina, of course).
Despite John McCain denouncing them. Showing McCain is better than Hillary on yet one more issue.
According to RCP, Sen. Clinton now leads in the popular vote (so long as you include Fla & MIch). I think her stronger argument, however is the map. I think that we just went to 3-1 in the ALCS.
Two things that have come out of this primary that deserve comment. First, I’ve read the argument that Clinton won because PA is racist.
Pardon the second comment, but I just can’t let that go. For those who espouse this theory, does it then follow that Sen Obama’s wins can be blamed on sexism?
Loomis,
I’m on board for Obama but and there is no way to rate your comment as “troll” so let me just call it out for being “trollish”.
Calling the former President “Billary” is pretty disrepectful too.
I don’t believe that supporting a candidate means that one has to disparage the other.
So lay down the “race” card and talk issues.
Vivian you know me better than that and also know I am not a strong pusher for either candidate. Period I am only telling you what I hear in a predominately African-american situation where I work. If you arent interested that is fine, but I try to bridge race. I work in all the communities every election cycle from the East End to Poquoson. I acknowledged when you had me on a previous blog, but I would like for the record, for you to pull up any email I have ever sent you in the past that even remotely spoke on this subject. I have never and will never play the race card. Especially on this race. Nor will I play the gender card. I am not that type of individual, you know it, and most of the area knows it that know me. I am both an Obama and Clinton fan, but I’m telling you this is getting to a lot of voters whether you want to admit it or not.
Gene – whether you realize it or not, making statements like you made is indeed playing the race card. I talk to black folk, too, and while some of them are saying what you say, others are not. It’s anecdotal evidence and cannot be extrapolated to the entire black community.
proudvadem – thanks.
Brian – good point. Few seem to see the flip side of their bogus argument.
On Billary:
I didn’t make it up, it just fits. If HRC were just HR, she wouldn’t be a senator or running for prez — she’d be a HMO lobbyist.
see Frank Rich, “The Billary Road to Republican Victory” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27rich.html .
loomis – I’m trying to be polite here but you are testing my patience. Either contribute to something to the conversation other than just disparaging remarks or go play in another sandbox.