In the 6th Congressional district in Louisiana, Democrat “Don” Cazayoux is battling Republican Louis “Woody” Jenkins for the seat vacated by Republican Richard Baker. According to this AP story, Cazayoux has been leading in the polls. The seat has been in Republican hands for 34 years. Jenkins sounds a little bit like Virginia’s own Bob Marshall:
Mr. Jenkins, a champion of religious-right causes for decades, achieved notoriety in the State House 18 years ago when he brandished plastic models of fetuses on the chamber floor to bolster his anti-abortion arguments.
Cazayoux is a conservative Democrat and has distanced himself from national Democrats while his opponent has tried repeatedly to associate him with them.
“The overall message is that it’s not so much tying him to a particular person, it’s tying him to the overall big picture. People across the country are campaigning on solutions. Whose solution do we want? Nancy Pelosi’s or the Republican Party’s?” said Jason Dore, Jenkins’ campaign manager.
Some have seen this race, along with the 5/13 special election in Mississippi, as a bellweather on the strength of Obama at the top of the ticket.
NRCC Chairman Tom Cole, a GOP congressman from Oklahoma, this week said Republicans would rather run with Obama at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket than Clinton. That represents a change in attitude for Republicans, many of whom had argued earlier that Clinton would likely energize Republicans against her and thus help down ticket Republicans.
But now, some Republican strategists say, any connection between Democratic candidates, even conservative Democrats such as Cazayoux and Childers, and Obama will erode their support among blue-collar voters. And they say that since the ads began running, the Democrats’ leads have shrunk.
Obama “is by any definition very liberal, to the left of Hillary Clinton, in a center-right country,” Cole said. “That is very, very helpful to us.”
But in Louisiana, Jenkins appears to be a pretty bad candidate, perfect for a Democratic pickup:
“If you’re the Democrats, you’ve got the candidate you can beat,” [Baton Rouge-based pollster Bernie] Pinsonat said. “If you can’t beat Woody Jenkins, I don’t know who you can beat.”
Well, we’ll see how this plays out. As I type this, Jenkins is ahead 49% to 46% with 354 out of 512 precincts reporting. (Election data is here.)
UPDATE @ 10:48: With 404 of 512 precints reporting, Cazayoux has pulled ahead for the first time, 49% to 46%
UPDATE @ 10:50: Now 508 of 512 precincts in. Cazayoux maintains his 49% to 46% advantage.
I guess I should also mention that there is another special election in Louisiana tonight, in the 1st Congressional district. In that race, the Republican candidate is leading by over 50 points – 75% to 22%. Guess that district is pretty red.
UPDATE @ 11:17: All 512 precincts are in. Cazayoux won 49.2% to 46.27%. The margin of victory is a little less than 3,000 votes out of about 100,000 cast.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Vivian,
You seem conflicted on this one. On the one hand, you wanted the Democrat to win because he is a Democrat. On the other hand, you would not have minded so much if the Republican had won, because that would have bolstered the case for Hillary.
Mouse,
But please keep in mind that Cazayoux is a conservative Democrat. Democrats now enjoy majoirties in Congress because they have been willing to nominate moderates and conservatives for office.
Mouse – not conflicted, just reporting. I offered no opinion in this.
Chris Cilizza weighs in on this race.
David — you are partly correct. The other part is that the Republicans got into office and acted like Democrats — taxing and spending, and ignoring illegal immigration.
Mouse,
Actually, Republicans were worse. They weren’t tax and spend they were borrow and spend.
As for illegal immigration, that is one of the sharp divisive issues. Seems to me that Congress, with Dubyah’s backing, attempted to come up with compromise legislation. Support of this compromise legislation must not be too bad for politicians, since John McCain was a co-sponsor and leading proponent of it in the Senate and he ended up being nominated for President.
David, you are correct again (on the borrow and spend).
The immigration legislation was not much of a compromise — the pro-illegal group got what they wanted.
Take care not to project results from a Louisiana race to national meaning. Louisiana, my home state, is a very,very different place from anywhere you’ve been.
Wealth envy is rampant, but faith in government to raise the poor is very low. They would be pretty much satisfied with destroying the rich even if it means a lower standard of living for all. Hence Huey Long.
Remember that LA is the State where Bonnie and Clyde were accepted, sheltered and treated almost as heroes and its most celebrated historical figure is Jean Lafitte, a pirate and smuggler. It hasn’t changed much.
Don Tabor,
But the Louisiana special election victory is only one of a string of successes by the Demoocratic Party in special elections since midterm elections. Combine these special election victories with the midterm results and Democrats have reason to be at least a little optimistic.
But I will again point out that much of the recent success has been because the Democratic Party has been willing to nominate and support moderates and even conservatives in elections.
Some Democrats might think this is a mistake (nominating a moderate or conservative to run as a Democrat) however I think it is wise and best for the Democratic Party. Better to have the elected conservative be a Democrat who is at least willing to talk to you then have the conservative be a Republican who’s door is closed to you.
Good point and one that often gets missed.
Which is exactly the argument for at-large representatives. That way, some of your representatives will be from your party. As things are now, nearly half of the voters have representatives of another party.