The non-partisan The Cook Political Report has updated its rankings of ten House races today, including VA-02. The race has been changed from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” reflecting the increasing strength of Democratic candidate Glen Nye against incumbent Republican Thelma Drake.
From the comments on the race (behind firewall), House Editor David Wasserman offers this:
Four years into office, Drake has yet to establish a strong grip on this military-heavy district, a factor attributable to her relatively small political base in Norfolk and her very conservative voting record, which is probably to the district’s right.
[…]
Obama’s position at the top of the ticket is likely to increase this percentage substantially.
[…]
Throw in popular Democratic Senate nominee Mark Warner’s position directly above Nye on the ballot, and this race becomes an even more plausible GOP trouble spot.
Political insiders are starting to take note of what we know here in the 2nd: we’ve got a strong candidate who can win this race. But it can’t be done without our help and support. If you haven’t made a commitment to Nye, now’s the time.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I’m not sure about how Obama will play in November in the district (although I am a strong supporter, I’m also pragmatic) but Mark Warner will have some amazing coat tails. I really do hope Virginia turns “blue” this year. We will have high turnout on our side too.
Glenn has been working very hard and I am very impressed with his grasp on issues important to the 2nd CD. He’s sharp and we are fortunate to have a candidate like him this year.