Nye/Drake race considered competitive

Today’s Virginian Pilot contained an article regarding the race in the 2nd CD between Democratic challenger Glenn Nye and Republican incumbent Thelma Drake. (Note to the Pilot: the 2nd doesn’t just include Virginia Beach.)

“If I had to handicap the race right now, the odds favor Drake, but she’s obviously beatable,” said Quentin Kidd, a political science professor at Christopher Newport University.

The article points to the coattails of Barack Obama in a district that is 22% black, plus those of Senatorial candidate Mark Warner, as being reasons that Nye could best Drake in this cycle. On the Republican side, the presence of military veterans in the district, with John McCain at the top of the ticket, is expected to help Drake.

Just below this article in the printed paper was one about name recognition and money. In the Beach’s mayoral race, challenger Will Sessoms has over $400,000 available to spend – more, in fact, than Nye has. As the first article points out,

“To be competitive, challengers need to come closer to the fund raising and spending of the incumbent than this,” said Jesse Richman, a political science professor at Old Dominion University.

Yes, Nye needs to raise more money. And while I agree with Kidd, who says there is a danger in relying too heavily on advertising, the truth is that advertising is a tremendous tool in raising name recognition, which is one of the benefits of incumbency and cannot be stressed too often.

In fact, it is because of the issue of name recognition that I take exception with the oft-repeated statement that Drake “only” got 51% in 2006. It’s easy to compare this cycle to 2006, but I think that’s just being lazy. There are two reasons why I think this election is significantly different.

First, Democratic challenger Phil Kellam entered the race as an elected official from Virginia Beach, which is about 70% of the district. In fact, Kellam had just won re-election in November 2005, so he didn’t start from zero on name recognition.  (Others will say that having the Kellam name alone was worth something. I say, yeah, but not much. Too many people have moved into the district over the years who have no idea what the meaning of the Kellam name is, other than on a high school.)

Second, in 2006, MoveOn.org started running commercials against Drake early in the cycle – in April, if memory serves – forcing Drake on TV early. Of course, that meant that Kellam had to go on TV, too. By this time two years ago, the TV ads were all over the place, raising an awareness of the election as well as increasing the name recognition of the challenger. Things have been quiet so far – too quiet in my opinion. This being a presidential election year, the noise level is about to increase dramatically and it will be increasingly difficult for Nye to be heard.

So Nye needs money. Now. Help out if you can.

UPDATE: Head over to Daily Kos to participate in the 24-hour fundraiser!