Going out on a limb

49 thoughts on “Going out on a limb”

1. Vivian,

   Kaine brings nothing to the ticket that Obama needs.

   He needs experience, specifically in the foreign policy realm.

   And, he needs contacts inside a Democratic Congressional leadership that, if he does win, might not share his agenda.

   Kaine might deliver Virginia’s 13 Electoral Votes for him.

   But then again they might not.

   Kerry picked Edwards four years ago and didn’t win North Carolina. Dukakis picked Bensten and didn’t win Texas. The days of picking VP running mates for Electoral College purposes are, I think, long gone.

   That’s why I’m betting on Biden. He’s got experience and a good foreign policy resume. And, unlike Kaine or Bayh, picking him will not result in the seat he holds being handed to a Republican (if Kaine becomes Vice-President, the next Governor of Virginia will be a Republican, if Bayh does his replacement in the Senate would be selected by the Republican Governor of Indiana).

   And, in all honesty, I don’t see Tim Kaine playing well anywhere outside of Virginia.

2. But he can’t take Biden, for the reasons I mentioned above. Dems can’t afford to lose two Senators. And I never said ~ nor do I believe ~ that Obama would pick Kaine for the EVs. There’s other stuff at work here.

   That’s not to say, BTW, that Biden wouldn’t be a good choice, because in many respects, he would be. But I see some serious downsides with picking Biden, and I think they would be a little much to overcome.

3. I agree with Doug. McCain will likely look for the man to run in 2012 (or 2016, though I doubt McCain will run in 2012), so he may look for a young guy. But the only thing worse for Obama than looking inexperienced is to look completely inexperienced. As Doug noted, Kaine brings nothing to the ticket (in fact, some polls suggest that Kaine might actually cost Obama his chance at Virginia) other than added emphasis of Obama’s limited experience. McCain has plenty of experience, regardless of his VP pick, but that is not a risk Obama should be taking.

   Admittedly though, I am rooting for Obama to take Kaine. It would be helpful to Republicans in Virginia, and helpful to Republicans in the rest of the country.

4. Well, I disagree that it helps Republicans in Virginia, especially since nearly everyone believes that Bolling is a weaker gubernatorial candidate than McDonnell.

   (PS – I lined out that first sentence of mine. I forgot that Biden is in a state where, presumably, a Democrat would be appointed to replace him.)

5. Bayh would be problematic because the governor of Indiana is a Republican and I don´t see another Democrat besides him holding a seat there. On the other hand, not only Illinois has a Democrat governor but it´s Republican Party is a joke. And I don´t see Republicans winning Delaware. 😉

6. I wouldn’t read too much into the Virginia scheduling. Obama’s campaign said that they will change their schedule at a moment’s notice according to plans for the VP candidate. With all the Virginia stops, it looks promising for Kaine, but I think Biden is probably favored. His foreign policy experience is second to none, he has a good relationship with Obama, and he is exactly the kind of effective attack dog Obama needs right now.

7. Doug,

   I have to disagree with you, although I think it’s Biden. The Obama folks like to leak this stuff and play the trial balloon game. If it is Kaine, you could put him in catholic areas like Macomb County Michigan, and the Pittsburgh suburbs, where he’ll talk about his trip to Honduras and his faith. He can also help in the sw with Richardson since he’s fluent in spanish. Many people voted for him based on that first intro ad he ran in 2005 that made him look like the suburban dad next door. You have to have some political talent to be a Democrat and win Henrico convincingly, and only lose Chesterfield 55-45, not to mention winning Chesapeake and Virginia Beach (I know it was a state race). Biden goes to every sunday talk show and looks for a mic. He’s been very quiet the last few weeks.

8. Kerry was a Catholic and lost the Catholic vote.

9. I think it probably needs to be noted that Tim Kaine has the single best organization in Virginia at the moment–MVF delivered Virginia for Obama in the primary by a wide, wide margin. That organization is going to do everything it can to deliver in the general election, too, don’t get me wrong, but people who underestimate Governor Kaine’s political skillset do so at their own peril. It wouldn’t be an exageration to say that the modern Democratic Party of Virginia is founded on Mark Warner’s good name and Tim Kaine’s organization.

   I actually don’t think it’s going to be the Governor–I’d sooner expect a Jim Webb switcheroo, based on the theme of the convention. But in an election where the economy figures to be the #1 issue, Gov Kaine brings strong executive experience keeping our state’s economy on a relatively even keel in both the best of times and the worst of times.

10. I believe Biden is going to get the nod, although I still see Bayh as an outside chance. I like Kaine, and I think he’d make a fine VP, but Kaine isn’t going to help Obama outside of Virginia (let’s face it; the Klanservatives will continue to carry the Southeast no matter who Obama picks.)

11. Vivian,

    On the question of how much Kaine actually would help Obama in Virginia, there’s this tidbit from last week:

    [A] Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say.

    (…)

    They said that the focus group was held in a conference room in Norfolk, a city in Virginia’s eastern Tidewater region, a huge swing area of the state.

    Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.

    http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/obama_richmond_va_next_thursda.php

    And that’s in Kaine’s home state.

    If the test is whether voters would feel comfortable with the idea that Tim Kaine is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, I’m not sure he’d do all that well in his home state or anywhere else.

12. Given that the election of Obama will signal the world that America is weakening, we can expect assassination attempts on the President and more terrorist attacks, both here and abroad.

    Governor Kaine is a good and decent man who America could depend upon, in the likely scenario that Obama is killed in office, if he is, in the unlikely event, elected to the Presidency in the first place.

    The sad fact is that with Obama, many interests across the globe that have been held in check, will interpret his election as a green light to mobilize against their various rivals. On the other hand, as President, John McCain, will send a piercing beacon of clarity through the fog of international intrigue, that America remains strong and shall continue to lead the nations of the world to a brighter future for all mankind.

13. If it’s not Kaine, and he announces someone in the next 24 hours, that’s serious snub for Kaine.

    And with the budget the way it is now, I can see a strong demand for Kaine to step down as Governor immediately. Our fiscal crisis, which his budget ignored by the way, needs someone running the show full time. An absent governor is not the right thing for Virginia.

    I expect Obama’s Virginia visits to come and go with no announcement and Kaine never gets the tap. But who knows.

14. Richardson — hands down the best candidate the Democrats had running.

15. Andre — Kerry just said he was a Catholic.

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