A Daily Kos-commissioned poll shows Republican incumbent Thelma Drake enjoying a 14-point lead over Democratic challenger Glenn Nyem with 12% of the voters being undecided. The poll was conducted by Research 2000 on October 7 and 8 and has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
The same poll shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by nine, 51% to 42%. In this Republican-leaning district, Nye has to outperform Obama in order to win.
One number that jumps out at me: 12% of Democrats are supporting Drake while 11% are supporting McCain. That compares to just 5% of Republicans supporting Nye with 8% supporting Obama. Democrats are on the losing end of the crossover votes here, something that is a bit difficult to fathom given the political climate. In the case of Nye, I wonder how much of this is due to his lack of name recognition.
At this point in 2006, the race had Drake ahead by just 2 points, which ended up being the final margin. That poll, which included 6% undecided, showed crossover voting about equal, with 22% of the Republicans supporting Democrat Phil Kellam and 23% of Democrats supporting Drake.
I think both races are closer than this poll shows, but given the demographics of the district, I’m not surprised that the Democratic candidates are running behind. With such a short time til Election Day, we have our work cut out for us.
h/t NLS
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 