Independent spending VA-02, 05, 11 – pickups?

It has been interesting to follow the independent spending in the Congressional races in Virginia. Swing State Project has made it easy. Based on the last update (10/29), we can see the efforts of the DCCC and NRCC as well as other independent groups to take or retain seats.

In the 11th, an open seat due to the retirement of Republican Tom Davis, independent expenditures on behalf of Democratic candidate Gerry Connolly total $1,645,270. Interestingly enough, there have been no expenditures on behalf of his Republican opponent, millionaire Keith Fimian. I guess the RNCC agrees with Larry Sabato of the UVA Center for Politics. He has projected a win for Connolly.

In the 5th, Democrat Tom Perriello is mounting a heck of a challenge to Virgil Goode, prompting the DCCC to inject $644,584 into this race. The Cook Political Report upgraded the race to Lean Republican earlier this week. Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently has the race as Republican hold. Again, there has been no investment by the RNCC into this race. (UPDATE: For more information on this race, check out Mark’s blog here.)

My own district, the 2nd, once again has the closest race in the state. Independent expenditures on behalf of Democratic challenger Glenn Nye total $1,354,448, almost as much as in the much more expensive media market of the 11th. By comparison, Republican incumbent Thelma Drake has received only $431,731, all of it from the RNCC. Looking at the expenditures by the RNCC on behalf of some of its other candidates, this is nowhere near the top; however, it does indicate that the Republicans want to hold this seat and believe that they can. Nye has raised over $1 million for this race while Drake has raised in excess of $1.8 million. Both campaigns have reported 48-hour activity.

On the heels of The Virginian Pilot endorsement, Cooke updated its rating on the race to Toss Up, an assessment that the Drake campaign disagrees with. Wednesday, Nye received the endorsement of Faithful Democrats.  The Crystal Ball has this race as Republican hold.

3 thoughts on “Independent spending VA-02, 05, 11 – pickups?

  1. And again the 7th goes uncontested. Well virtually anyway. I guess the Dems really want Eric Cantor (R) to stay in Washington. There is a significant number of those leaning Democrat in Henrico County, where this year could actually go Obama in the Presidential race and still nothing to help out the Democrat candidate.

  2. the tax calculation from both mccain and obama came out to be similar to each other. i guess this neck to neck fight between them will eventually end with our conscience choosing the president whom we really think can run the country. really, if it’s down to mccain and obama, it’s hard to tell.but if it’s their running mates, then the choice is obvious and it’s not going to be palin. a lipstick on a pig is still a pig. pain with an L in between is still a pain.

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