As recently as Monday afternoon, I had a conversation with a political scientist regarding Congressional pickups and he didn’t see Virginia Democrats picking up more than one seat – VA-11. I thought it possible that we could get three, but the data just wasn’t there to support it. As I write this, not only did Gerry Connolly win, but it appears that Glenn Nye (02) and Tom Perriello (05) have also won.
This was the big blue wave that I thought we’d see in Virginia in 2006. I guess we just weren’t ready then and we needed two more years to make the leap. As for VA-02, evidence of an upset first appeared when I wrote this back on September 22:
Something must be going on.
Let me take a guess: the poll numbers don’t look too good. Like 2006, this year is another year for Democrats. By this time two years ago, not only did we have independent polls on the 2nd CD race, we had the candidates releasing internal polls. So far this year – nada. Nevertheless, I’m guessing that the race is much closer than people realize and that Nye’s bio, plus his desire for bipartisanship, is resonating with the voters in the 2nd. That’s the only reason to try to discredit him.
Yep, the indicators were there. Combine that with the negative TV ads and we should have seen this one coming. (Actually, I did 🙂 ) Congrats to Glenn!
The Perriello race was a little more difficult of a call to make. In a relatively short period of time, Perriello made significant gains in the district, helped along by Goode’s missteps. The spending by the DCCC should have been an indication that this race was a competitive one, though. According to Swing State Project, the DCCC put more than $720,000 into this race through 11/2. The final number will, no doubt, be higher. The 2100 vote lead Perriello currently enjoys is a little to close for comfort, though, as it does not include absentee ballots in Campbell County. Are there enough votes there to make up the difference? I’m not sure.
Virginia sure looks different today, doesn’t it? (Map from AP – click to enlarge)
UPDATE 11:23am: It appears that Goode has managed to hang on to this seat. With 100% reporting, the margin for Goode is 146 votes. Think those 170 writein voters are wishing they had made a different choice?
UPDATE 4:36pm: Wow – now the SBE shows Perriello ahead by 31 votes. I think this one is headed for a recount, no matter what.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I told you Nye had backing older than Congress itself.
This is an INCREDIBLE day!!!
Congressman Nye- I can’t stop saying out loud! He’s worked so hard for this and I am thrilled to now have such a great person representing me.
AP called it this AM.
As I have said many times before- GO GLENN NYE!!!!
Think those 170 writein voters are wishing they had made a different choice?
I wouldn’t count on it. There was a campaign to have people write in their support of a national retail sales tax which Goode also supports. I suspect that between them and those who just wrote in whatever, they aren’t too upset.
By the way, Goode’s lead is down to 140 votes.
It was so nice to wake up in a Blue state this morning!
BS
As of 2:20 PM Wednesday, Goode’s lead was a mere six votes, out of over 314,000 cast. Perriello is waiting for the provisional ballots to come in.
the local norfolk GOP got kicked around again maybe just maybe you think they got the picture, hoping for VB. to put them over the top in every election does not work, and next year they will not be running any local city candidates for norfolk office forgot one hank for millers office getting sad out there!!!!!!
All this election has proven is that corruption and money trump integrity every time. Mr. “Game-Changer” showed that he has no more character than the creeps on Capitol Hill. For a guy who so loudly opposed the “trickle-down” theory of economics, he certainly didn’t mind abandoning his promise to stay away from corporate funding in this election. After breaking his promise, he received a whole bunch of corporate “trickle” which enabled him to outspend McCain (who stuck to his word) by hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising, flooding the airwaives in key battleground states with up to four times as many ads as the GOP. I guess the evils of TDE only apply to the other guy, huh Barry?
Obama’s no different than anyone else, as you will soon see. But, hey, what can I say? Love is blind, isn’t it?