Fliergate: A closer look (part 1)

Hampton Roads, Local, Politics 2 Minutes

sessomsflyer_0001In my analysis of Fliergate, I mentioned that there were nine precincts in which the winners were Barack Obama, Will Sessoms and Georgia Allen.  I call them “The Flier Ticket” precincts. Let’s look a little closer at them.

# votes # reg. Obama McCain Oberndorf Sessoms Allen Wilson
5 Seatack 1,959 3,363 1,283 642 564 807 753 471
12 Plaza 2,147 3,485 1,228 887 674 734 737 648
15 Old Don. 2,108 3,452 1,053 1,008 699 722 741 653
50 Oceana 1,224 2,324 852 343 330 437 357 271
69 Shell 1,804 2,816 1,122 663 649 651 711 490
73 Dahlia 2,599 4,448 1,538 1,033 884 958 827 714
76 Village 1,623 2,812 1,102 503 507 561 534 421
79 Pl. Hall 1,618 2,467 1,068 536 547 593 612 433
91 Lexington 1,596 2,310 900 676 539 582 496 432
Totals 16,678 27,477 10,146 6,291 5,393 6,045 5,768 4,533
% 60.70% 61.73% 38.27% 47.15% 52.85% 55.99% 44.01%

Citywide, there were 201,720 votes cast out of 288,141 registered voters, for a turnout of 70.01%. These nine precincts represent 8.27% of the votes cast. Turnout here lagged that of the city as a whole by nearly 10%. (Had turnout matched the citywide average, another 2,559 votes would have been cast.)

In 2004, John Kerry carried six of these precincts while George Bush won two – Plaza and Old Donation. (The Lexington precinct did not exist in 2004.) The total votes cast in 2004 – 175,687 – was 26,033 less than this year. In 2000, Al Gore carried four of the precincts while Bush carried the same two. (Village, Pleasant Hall, and Lexington did not exist.) The total votes cast – 149,771 – was 51,949 less than this year. In both cases, when the precincts are combined, the Democratic candidate won.

For purposes of this analysis, I have ignored the other candidates (four other presidential tickets, two other mayoral candidates and three other at-large council seat candidates). None of them won any of the precincts.

Typically, there is a drop off between the votes cast in the races at the top of the ballot and those cast in races further down the ballot, unless there is something driving the down ballot race. Referring to the numbers in my earlier post, the difference between the votes McCain received and those Sessoms received was 25,933 while the difference between those received by McCain and those received by Rosemary Wilson was 29,507. So the difference between Sessoms and Wilson was only 3,574 votes, indicating that the drop off between the mayor’s race and this council race was fairly small.

While representing a little more than eight percent of the total votes cast, these nine precincts accounted for 1,512, or 42.31%, of the total difference in the number of votes received by Sessoms in excess of those received by Wilson.

Further, you will note that Sessoms ran almost even with McCain in these precincts, garnering 6,045 votes to McCain’s 6,291. This difference of 246 votes represents less than 1% (.95%) of the overall difference in votes between these two. And in four of the precincts, Sessoms received more votes than McCain did, all of them precincts that Obama won handily.

Georgia Allen won all nine of these precincts, plus the 17 Democratic Ticket precincts (more on those in part 2) and two other miscellaneous precincts. If voters were following the Democratic sample ballot, you would expect that Allen, even in winning the precinct, would run a little behind Oberndorf. In all but two precincts, this was not the case. Allen won seven of the nine precincts with more votes than Oberndorf received.  Overall, Allen received 375 more votes in these precincts than Oberndorf did.

So what could account for these items? I submit that it was the fliers linking Obama and Sessoms.

Published

8 thoughts on “Fliergate: A closer look (part 1)”

  1. Vivian,

    My impression is that the Sessoms campaign exceeded the Oberndorf in expenditures. I am not certain this is true, but from my personal experience I suspect it is.

    Were all of the Sessom’s expenditures other then (and I am not putting forth direct funding) of the flier wasted?

    Perhaps the problem is that Meyera spent so little time campaigning in the precints you mentioned, they were more open to appeals from her opposition.

    I am not saying that whoever printed the flier should go unpunished. I am just unwilling to accept that the flier is the complete explanation for Meyera Oberndorf’s loss.

    Did Meyera offer Obama the keys to the city when he appeared here? Or did she distance herself from the Obama campaign?

    Kind of hard to ride the coat tails when you want nothing to do with them.

  2. Um, LD, you are truly speculating about things that you know nothing about. Oberndorf was almost joined at the hip with Obama and not just when he appeared in VA Beach.

    If you felt you didn’t know enough to vote in the mayoral race, I find it difficult to understand why you feel qualified to offer inaccurate claims here.

  3. Vivian,

    Perhaps you are correct in stating I am engaging in speculation.

    However if my speculation is correct, what you put forth, that Meyera was joined at the hip with Barack, was evidently not communicated to the precincts in question.

    Or are you just speculating yourself?

    My speculation is that Meyera did not want to tie herself at the hip with Barack like you state was evident. Such a move would have been advantageous in some precincts but a death knoll in others.

  4. I’m not speculating. I actually attend events – local and otherwise – and saw Meyera doing exactly that: tying herself to Barack and other Democratic candidates. I move around a lot, David, so I have no need to deal in speculation.

  7. Vivian,

    The evidence to substantiate Brian’s claim comes from the figures you provide.

    I bet that if Meyera had made a larger effort to communicate her support of Obama in these precints through targeted campaigning/media advertising she would have fared better.

    It is not like Meyera lacked the means to get her message out. Of course leaning too far in one direction to gain votes alienates voters and loses votes in another direction.

    By the way, that you are so politically involved and take the time out to go to such events is one reason I keep coming back here. But I was not aware of Meyera attempting to tie herself to Barack so I am not surprised that the voters in the precincts you point to were caught unaware as well.

    Perhaps Meyera just ran a lack luster campaign?

    As an aside, I will mention that perhaps Virginia Beach needs to change course on non-partisan city elections. I have heard Republicans speaking up in favor of this and here is an example where the presumably Democratic candidate would have benefited as well. Most localities do not have a problem with partisan elections for local seats.

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