Fliergate: A closer look (part 2)

Hampton Roads, Local, Politics 2 Minutes

sessomsflyer_0001In my analysis of Fliergate, I mentioned that there were 17 precincts in which the winners were Barack Obama, Meyera Oberndorf and Georgia Allen. I call them “The Democratic Ticket” precincts. Let’s look a little closer at them.

#votes # reg. Obama McCain Oberndorf Sessoms Allen Wilson
16 Aragona 2,696 4,299 1,528 1,114 870 856 1,123 685
21 Davis Cnr 1,893 2,940 1,421 450 669 658 878 396
29 Holland 2,494 4,557 1,553 911 799 797 733 644
36 Win Oaks 2,445 4,184 1,406 1,003 832 818 789 740
41 College Pk 1,509 2,357 1,058 428 660 465 522 377
43 Bellamy 1,853 3,055 1,138 695 739 588 659 465
45 Timberlake 2,039 3,155 1,390 625 763 606 731 466
46 Green Run 2,535 4,088 1,567 928 902 772 899 639
54 Cromwell 1,313 1,925 693 603 500 454 465 383
55 Mag Hollow 2,260 3,903 1,434 795 742 741 909 547
61 Baker 2,079 3,237 1,824 244 906 695 1,112 302
71 Round Hill 2,775 4,478 1,636 1,110 1,051 831 1,046 651
74 Buckner 1,752 2,865 1,113 618 634 552 631 458
80 Reon 1,309 1,998 958 340 486 420 548 273
81 Rock Lake 2,074 3,246 1,208 828 813 648 742 592
84 Tallwood 2,069 2,923 1,037 1,002 796 676 609 522
93 Newtown 1,223 1,852 1,092 116 430 394 577 175
Totals 34,318 55,062 22,056 11,810 12,592 10,971 12,973 8,315
% 62.33% 65.13% 34.87% 53.44% 46.56% 60.94% 39.06%

These precincts represent 17.01% of the 201,720 votes cast in the election. Like The Flier Precincts, the turnout ratio here also lagged that of the city as a whole. In this case, the difference was almost 8%.

In 2004, John Kerry carried eight of these precincts while George Bush carried eight, although he won two of them by less than 5 votes and 1 by less than 50. (The Newtown precinct did not exist in 2004.) In 2000, Al Gore carried ten of the precincts while Bush carried only two. (Buckner, Reon Rock Lake, Tallwood and Newtown did not exist.) In both of those elections, when the precincts are combined, the Democratic candidate won.

I mentioned in part 1 that the difference between the total number of votes received by Will Sessoms and Rosemary Wilson in this election was 3,574 votes. As you can see above, the difference in these precincts is 2,656 votes, or 74.31% of the total difference. When combined with The Flier Precincts, this more than accounts for Sessoms’ entire difference in votes received in excess of Wilson, and we’ve only looked at 25.28% of the total votes cast!

Once again, what we see in these precincts is that Sessoms ran almost even with McCain, garnering 10,971 votes to McCain’s 11,810. This 839 vote difference represents just over 3% (3.24%) of the 25,933 overall vote total difference between these two.

Likewise, we again see Georgia Allen receiving more votes – 381 – in these precincts that Oberndorf received. While Oberndorf ran ahead of Allen in a majority of the precincts, the differences were not significant enough to overcome the large margins Allen put up in the other precincts.

What really stood out for me when I first looked at these precincts, though, was the margins of victory for Oberndorf and Allen. Take a look at the size of the margin for Allen over Wilson – 4,658 votes – versus the margin for Oberndorf over Sessoms – 1621 votes. For that matter, just look at the Aragona precinct. There, Oberndorf’s win was only by 14 votes, while Allen’s win was by 438 votes.

I submit that the effect of the distribution of the fliers in these precincts was to keep the race close in these precincts, and minimize the margins Oberndorf would have otherwise enjoyed.

Between these precincts and The Flier Ticket precincts, Sessoms was able to flip enough votes out of just 25.28% of the votes cast to alter the election results.

In the other nearly 75% of votes cast, Sessoms ran behind Wilson, who was running downticket. In the other nearly 75% of the votes cast, Sessoms accrued 96% of his vote deficit in comparison to McCain.

Published

22 thoughts on “Fliergate: A closer look (part 2)”

  1. No kidding Viv has enough readers to offer their own opinions. I haven’t had a chance yet to articulate my opinion (I’m still digging through some things). Brian Kirwin hasn’t chimed in yet on this specific post, but I’d be shocked if he isn’t sitting somewhere with a laptop open and the vbgov registrar’s site open sifting through old results.

    I just wanted to pop in and point out for the benefit of people who apparently don’t read the newspaper that not only did Meyera run as a Democrat, she ran so hard as a Democrat that the Virginian Pilot published a scathing editorial that basically said, Hey, Meyera, stop being such a blankity-blank Democrat. Linky: http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/beach-mayor-forgets-nonpartisan-pledge

    Also: http://hamptonroads.com/2008/11/beach-mayoral-race-has-more-partisan-tone-november

  3. Pingback: Fliergate: A closer look (part 3) « VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local

  4. “ran so hard as a Democrat”

    Didn’t see it in her print ads. Didn’t see it in her lit pieces. I know she mentioned it in a radio ad, but that doesn’t exactly meet the threshold of running hard as a Democrat.

    Meyera’s base likely knew, but November voters who never voted in May?

    Heck, the only time Meyera ran in a partisan race, she did so as a Republican for State Senate.

  5. First off, to Vivian and anyone else.

    I respect your (Vivian’s) opinion. While I am sure I probably vehemently disagree with her on some subjects (which I will not go into here) I do not object to listening to her opinion on anything.

    Sockpuppet? Is that what it is called? How about someone who chooses to post to gain favor with the blog administrator. Now what is that called?

    As for my knowing little I will note that voters in my district voted time and again for change.

    From Republican to Democrat in the Presidential race.

    From Republican to Democrat in the Senatorial race.

    From Republican to Democrat (against an incumbent no less) in the House race.

    In the Mayoral race from supposedly none partisan incumbent to supposedly none partisan challenger.

    See a trend here? Please factor in that new voters were hungry for change. Would their appetite be less for change in local elections?

  6. “Didn’t see it in her print ads. Didn’t see it in her lit pieces. I know she mentioned it in a radio ad, but that doesn’t exactly meet the threshold of running hard as a Democrat.”

    She mentioned it at a few events I happened to be at, Brian, but I acknowledge that she didn’t go quite so far as the Sessoms folks did with their illegal flier.

Comments are closed.