In my analysis of Fliergate, I mentioned that there were 17 precincts in which the winners were Barack Obama, Meyera Oberndorf and Georgia Allen. I call them “The Democratic Ticket” precincts. Let’s look a little closer at them.
| #votes | # reg. | Obama | McCain | Oberndorf | Sessoms | Allen | Wilson | ||
| 16 | Aragona | 2,696 | 4,299 | 1,528 | 1,114 | 870 | 856 | 1,123 | 685 |
| 21 | Davis Cnr | 1,893 | 2,940 | 1,421 | 450 | 669 | 658 | 878 | 396 |
| 29 | Holland | 2,494 | 4,557 | 1,553 | 911 | 799 | 797 | 733 | 644 |
| 36 | Win Oaks | 2,445 | 4,184 | 1,406 | 1,003 | 832 | 818 | 789 | 740 |
| 41 | College Pk | 1,509 | 2,357 | 1,058 | 428 | 660 | 465 | 522 | 377 |
| 43 | Bellamy | 1,853 | 3,055 | 1,138 | 695 | 739 | 588 | 659 | 465 |
| 45 | Timberlake | 2,039 | 3,155 | 1,390 | 625 | 763 | 606 | 731 | 466 |
| 46 | Green Run | 2,535 | 4,088 | 1,567 | 928 | 902 | 772 | 899 | 639 |
| 54 | Cromwell | 1,313 | 1,925 | 693 | 603 | 500 | 454 | 465 | 383 |
| 55 | Mag Hollow | 2,260 | 3,903 | 1,434 | 795 | 742 | 741 | 909 | 547 |
| 61 | Baker | 2,079 | 3,237 | 1,824 | 244 | 906 | 695 | 1,112 | 302 |
| 71 | Round Hill | 2,775 | 4,478 | 1,636 | 1,110 | 1,051 | 831 | 1,046 | 651 |
| 74 | Buckner | 1,752 | 2,865 | 1,113 | 618 | 634 | 552 | 631 | 458 |
| 80 | Reon | 1,309 | 1,998 | 958 | 340 | 486 | 420 | 548 | 273 |
| 81 | Rock Lake | 2,074 | 3,246 | 1,208 | 828 | 813 | 648 | 742 | 592 |
| 84 | Tallwood | 2,069 | 2,923 | 1,037 | 1,002 | 796 | 676 | 609 | 522 |
| 93 | Newtown | 1,223 | 1,852 | 1,092 | 116 | 430 | 394 | 577 | 175 |
| Totals | 34,318 | 55,062 | 22,056 | 11,810 | 12,592 | 10,971 | 12,973 | 8,315 | |
| % | 62.33% | 65.13% | 34.87% | 53.44% | 46.56% | 60.94% | 39.06% |
These precincts represent 17.01% of the 201,720 votes cast in the election. Like The Flier Precincts, the turnout ratio here also lagged that of the city as a whole. In this case, the difference was almost 8%.
In 2004, John Kerry carried eight of these precincts while George Bush carried eight, although he won two of them by less than 5 votes and 1 by less than 50. (The Newtown precinct did not exist in 2004.) In 2000, Al Gore carried ten of the precincts while Bush carried only two. (Buckner, Reon Rock Lake, Tallwood and Newtown did not exist.) In both of those elections, when the precincts are combined, the Democratic candidate won.
I mentioned in part 1 that the difference between the total number of votes received by Will Sessoms and Rosemary Wilson in this election was 3,574 votes. As you can see above, the difference in these precincts is 2,656 votes, or 74.31% of the total difference. When combined with The Flier Precincts, this more than accounts for Sessoms’ entire difference in votes received in excess of Wilson, and we’ve only looked at 25.28% of the total votes cast!
Once again, what we see in these precincts is that Sessoms ran almost even with McCain, garnering 10,971 votes to McCain’s 11,810. This 839 vote difference represents just over 3% (3.24%) of the 25,933 overall vote total difference between these two.
Likewise, we again see Georgia Allen receiving more votes – 381 – in these precincts that Oberndorf received. While Oberndorf ran ahead of Allen in a majority of the precincts, the differences were not significant enough to overcome the large margins Allen put up in the other precincts.
What really stood out for me when I first looked at these precincts, though, was the margins of victory for Oberndorf and Allen. Take a look at the size of the margin for Allen over Wilson – 4,658 votes – versus the margin for Oberndorf over Sessoms – 1621 votes. For that matter, just look at the Aragona precinct. There, Oberndorf’s win was only by 14 votes, while Allen’s win was by 438 votes.
I submit that the effect of the distribution of the fliers in these precincts was to keep the race close in these precincts, and minimize the margins Oberndorf would have otherwise enjoyed.
Between these precincts and The Flier Ticket precincts, Sessoms was able to flip enough votes out of just 25.28% of the votes cast to alter the election results.
In the other nearly 75% of votes cast, Sessoms ran behind Wilson, who was running downticket. In the other nearly 75% of the votes cast, Sessoms accrued 96% of his vote deficit in comparison to McCain.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Vivian — can you compare these results to the previous mayoral election? Did Mayor Oberndorf fare poorly in these precincts in her previous elections?
I can do that, Mouse, but it will be a little like comparing apples to oranges because the previous election was a May election. I’ll take a look and see.
Not at all. I would simply like to see whether she has generally done poorly in those precincts, relative to her showing in the rest of the city.
Vivian,
You evidently know how to get at the figures better then I.
Eliminate the down ticket figures. Where did the votes go for those precincts affected in the Glenn Nye/Thelma Drake race?
In support of my question I will point out how in Aragona (which I assume was not a flier precinct) Obama beat McCain by 414 votes but Oberndorf beat Sessoms by a mere 14 votes.
Mouse – I’ll try to look tonight.
LD – I gave you the link to the figures that I’m using in the original post. It’s on the VB Registrar’s website.
What you don’t understand is that the fliers HAD NO EFFECT on the Nye/Drake race. So it is pointless to look at those figures.
The other thing is that you cannot eliminate the downticket races precisely because they are the control totals!
And yes, fliers were distributed in Aragona.
Also, Nye and Drake were identified on the ballot as R and D. The local candidates were not identified by party. That’s what the Sessoms campaign was trying to take advantage of by associating Sessoms with Obama in the flier precincts.
Vivian,
You’re actually helping me make one of my points.
If the Glenn Nye/Thelma Drake race was unaffected (only because it was not attempted) perhaps the reason these precincts supported Glenn Nye was through party identification?
But if Meyera lost in these precincts perhaps it was because she failed to communicate in these precincts. Perhaps with party identification she would have won.
Absent party identification, the voters might have been left adrift on who to vote for. What did Meyera ever do for the precints in question that would have won their unquestioned support? What steps did she take to communicate to them? She had been at the helm forever. If she could not point out anything?
Actually, every time you say something, you demonstrate your naivete about politics, not to mention your lack of knowledge about the way things work. I am reminded that you said you knew so little about the mayor’s race that you didn’t bother to vote in it.
Did you miss my earlier comment about the Democratic sample ballot and the fact that Meyera’s name was on it? Has it not yet sunk in that the Nye/Drake race – which you continually try to bring into the conversation – had NOTHING to do with this? Why are you ignoring the fact that Meyera has consistently identified herself as a Democrat?
Your naivete was at first charming. Now it’s just annoying.
Oh – and if you think I’m grasping at straws, just wait for the announcement from the Commonwealth’s Attorney’s office.
Vivian,
Oh, your arguments are furthered by throwing insults. Perhaps my opinion of you was unwarranted.
Feel free to throw insults in your attempt to convince people. You seem to be quite good at it.
Maybe I am just thin skinned myself. But I have a problem with comments about my naivete and how annoying I am.
Unless I missed it, there was no insult in what Vivian said, LittleDavid. You did admit you didn’t know enough about the race to have cast a vote. And, apparently, you haven’t been around long enough to know that Oberndorf has pretty much always been identified as a Democrat.
Keep up the good work, Vivian. Light is the best disinfectant.
Moss needs to go,
If I did not know better, I would think that last post came from Vivian herself.
LD – Vivian’s been pretty clear in her methodology and explanations here, and I think she’s made a solid case for the impact of the flier.
I would back off of implying that she plays sockpuppet on her own blog, though. You might disagree with her politics, but you (and anyone else, really) have zero standing to attack her integrity. Anyway, as my comment right here shows, she’s got plenty of folks who think highly of her and won’t hesitate to say it. She doesn’t need to sockpuppet.
Somehow, a similar amount of votes keeps cropping up in this comparison.
I am sure you have been making a case for illegal campaign activities here, and if that is the case, I agree.
Also, the question crops up again about the lack of party ID on State races. We will be going through this again this year.
LittleDavid: I think that it is easy to overlook the passion with which people in the VB/Norfolk areas practice their politics. I completely rely on Vivian for information and opinions in the political scene down there.
I think you need to realize that these matters are taken seriously here, and suffer those who don’t or won’t listen and learn.
At this point, it would be good for you to talk about facts, rather than try to speculate on politics in an area where you know little.
LD – in case you hadn’t noticed, 3 of the 5 top posts in my sidebar are the ones about Fliergate. A lot of folks read my posts and rarely comment. So to even think that I would need to stoop to posting without using my own name is patently ridiculous.