Fliergate: A closer look (part 3)

Hampton Roads, Local, Politics 3 Minutes

sessomsflyer_0001I actually had something else planned for this part but since Mouse asked, I took a look at the vote information for the last mayoral race in Virginia Beach. That election was held May 4, 2004.

First, as a reminder, here are the figures from the Flier Ticket precincts I discussed in part 1. I have removed all of the data except the figures for the mayoral race.

# votes # reg. Oberndorf Sessoms
5 Seatack 1,959 3,363 564 807
12 Plaza 2,147 3,485 674 734
15 Old Don 2,108 3,452 699 722
50 Oceana 1,224 2,324 330 437
69 Shell 1,804 2,816 649 651
73 Dahlia 2,599 4,448 884 958
76 Village 1,623 2,812 507 561
79 Pl Hall 1,618 2,467 547 593
91 Lexington 1,596 2,310 539 582
Totals 16,678 27,477 5,393 6,045
% 60.70% 47.15% 52.85%

And the numbers from the Democratic Ticket precincts from part 2.

#votes # reg. Oberndorf Sessoms
16 Aragona 2,696 4,299 870 856
21 Davis Crnr 1,893 2,940 669 658
29 Holland 2,494 4,557 799 797
36 Win Oaks 2,445 4,184 832 818
41 College Pk 1,509 2,357 660 465
43 Bellamy 1,853 3,055 739 588
45 Timberlake 2,039 3,155 763 606
46 Green Run 2,535 4,088 902 772
54 Cromwell 1,313 1,925 500 454
55 Mag Hollow 2,260 3,903 742 741
61 Baker 2,079 3,237 906 695
71 Round Hill 2,775 4,478 1,051 831
74 Buckner 1,752 2,865 634 552
80 Reon 1,309 1,998 486 420
81 Rock Lake 2,074 3,246 813 648
84 Tallwood 2,069 2,923 796 676
93 Newtown 1,223 1,852 430 394
Totals 34,318 55,062 12,592 10,971
% 62.33% 53.44% 46.56%

Here are the figures for the same precincts for the 2004 election which pitted Oberndorf against Robert Dean, using the data available from the VB Registrar’s office (pdf). Note there was a third candidate in the race who received just over 6% of the total votes cast. For purposes of this analysis, I have ignored that candidate.

# votes # reg. Oberndorf Dean
5 Seatack 306 3,309 130 146
12 Plaza 547 4,029 240 270
15 Old Don 444 3,185 170 216
50 Oceana 152 2,568 71 69
69 Shell 410 2,511 241 132
73 Dahlia 316 3,400 153 144
76 Village 188 2,604 78 102
79 Pl Hall 195 2,232 109 79
91 Lexington n/a n/a n/a n/a
Totals 2,558 23,838 1,192 1,158
% 10.73% 50.72% 49.28%

And

# votes # reg. Oberndorf Dean
16 Aragona 469 3,976 197 229
21 Davis Crnr 621 4,316 345 192
29 Holland 350 3,969 158 181
36 Win Oaks 539 3,814 246 250
41 College Pk 313 2,111 198 108
43 Bellamy 204 2,572 111 77
45 Timberlake 240 2,714 132 96
46 Green Run 393 3,398 201 178
54 Cromwell 197 1,626 98 88
55 Mag Hollow 310 3,369 140 158
61 Baker 201 4,533 124 59
71 Round Hill 388 3,993 214 154
74 Buckner 237 2,648 121 102
80 Reon 143 1,896 88 53
81 Rock Lake 280 2,867 141 117
84 Tallwood 335 3,192 184 129
93 Newtown n/a n/a n/a n/a
Totals 5,220 50,994 2,698 2,171
% 10.24% 55.41% 44.59%

As I expected, the votes for the May race were significantly less than those this past November, with less than 11% turnout as opposed to more than 60%. It is worth noting that these two groups of precincts, as in 2008, lagged the citywide average turnout, which was 16.71%. Further, note that one precinct in each group did not exist in 2004.

There are a number of ways to adjust the figures for comparison purposes; I chose to apply the 2008 turnout percentages per precinct to the 2004 registered vote totals and then allocated the votes to Oberndorf and Dean based on their actual vote totals in 2004.  For example, for Seatack, 1,959/3,363*3309 equals 1,928 total projected votes and 130/(130+146)*1,928 equals 908 votes for Oberndorf and 146/(130+146)*1,928 equals 1,020 for Dean.

If turnout were same as 2008
# votes Oberndorf Dean
5 Seatack 1,928 908 1,020
12 Plaza 2,482 1,168 1,314
15 Old Don 1,945 857 1,088
50 Oceana 1,353 686 667
69 Shell 1,609 1,040 569
73 Dahlia 1,987 1,024 963
76 Village 1,503 651 852
79 Pl Hall 1,464 849 615
91 Lexington n/a n/a n/a
Totals 14,271 7,183 7,088
% 59.87%

And

If turnout were same as 2008
Dem Ticket # votes Oberndorf Dean
16 Aragona 2,493 1,153 1,340
21 Davis Crnr 2,779 1,785 994
29 Holland 2,172 1,012 1,160
36 Win Oaks 2,229 1,106 1,123
41 College Pk 1,352 875 477
43 Bellamy 1,560 921 639
45 Timberlake 1,754 1,015 739
46 Green Run 2,107 1,117 990
54 Cromwell 1,109 584 525
55 Mag Hollow 1,951 917 1,034
61 Baker 2,911 1,972 939
71 Round Hill 2,474 1,439 1,035
74 Buckner 1,619 878 741
80 Reon 1,242 775 467
81 Rock Lake 1,832 1,001 831
84 Tallwood 2,259 1,328 931
93 Newtown n/a n/a n/a
Totals 31,843 17,878 13,965
% 62.44%

Now we can compare the votes Oberndorf actually received in 2008 to what she would have received in 2004 had the turnout per precinct been the same as 2008:

2008 act. 2004 proj Diff
5 Seatack 564 908 -344
12 Plaza 674 1,168 -494
15 Old Don 699 857 -158
50 Oceana 330 686 -356
69 Shell 649 1,040 -391
73 Dahlia 884 1,024 -140
76 Village 507 651 -144
79 Pl Hall 547 849 -302
91 Lexington 539 n/a n/a
Totals 5,393 7,183 -2,329

And

2008 act. 2004 proj Diff
16 Aragona 870 1,153 -283
21 Davis Crnr 669 1,785 -1,116
29 Holland 799 1,012 -213
36 Win Oaks 832 1,106 -274
41 College Pk 660 875 -215
43 Bellamy 739 921 -182
45 Timberlake 763 1,015 -252
46 Green Run 902 1,117 -215
54 Cromwell 500 584 -84
55 Mag Hollow 742 917 -175
61 Baker 906 1,972 -1,066
71 Round Hill 1,051 1,439 -388
74 Buckner 634 878 -244
80 Reon 486 775 -289
81 Rock Lake 813 1,001 -188
84 Tallwood 796 1,328 -532
93 Newtown 430 n/a n/a
Totals 12,592 17,878 -5,716

Note that the difference column does not include the last precinct in each group for which there was no 2004 data.

Now, to be fair, I’m still comparing apples to oranges here. After all, in 2004 there was a third candidate who received about 6% of the overall vote. At the minimum, that would reduce the projected Oberndorf totals. And as I reported in my initial analysis, there were two other candidates in the 2008 race, who combined received more than 25% of the total vote. Who those candidates would have pulled votes from in 2004 would be pure speculation on my part.

So what does all this number crunching show?

In the Flier Ticket precincts, all of which Oberndorf lost in 2008, she won 4 of 8 precincts in 2004, racking up sufficient margins to have won the entire group. In the Democratic Ticket precincts, all of which Oberndorf won in 2008, she won 12 of 16 precincts in 2004, and, as the result, posted an overall win here as well.

Taking the net difference of 8,045 votes (2,329 plus 5,716) and reducing it by 25.65%, the amount that the other candidates received in 2008, still leaves a difference of 5,982 votes, which is pretty close to the 5,000 vote total difference I roughed out in my initial analysis.

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29 thoughts on “Fliergate: A closer look (part 3)”

  2. OK, let’s run with the assumption that 75% of the Moss votes would have gone to Sessoms, and 25% to Oberndorf. Since Wallace was a “Republican activist” according to HRT, we can assume the same percentages would have gone to Dean and Oberndorf in 2004.

    So in 2004, the tally would have been:

    Flier Precincts:
    Oberndorf…1244…48.63%
    Dean……..1314…51.37%

    City-wide:
    Oberndorf…21,533…52.32%
    Dean……..19,625…47.68%

    In 2008, the tally would have been:

    Flier Precints:
    Oberndorf…6703….40.19%
    Sessoms…..9974….59.81%

    City-wide:
    Oberndorf…82,484….40.89%
    Sessoms….119,236….59.11%

    Again, in 2004, Oberndorf had a 3.69% deficit in the flier precincts vs. city-wide, but in 2008 that deficit narrowed to 0.70%.

    When we assumed an even split, those deficits were 3.37% in 2004 and 0.44% in 2008.

  5. Since May elections no longer exist, that will be a little hard to prove. However, we can extrapolate from on-year and off-year congressional and statehouse elections. Surveys of those registered to vote and those who actually vote would need to be conducted.

    I do not know whether such surveys have been done. It would have been nice if Virginia had done such surveys before deciding that just having more voters is better, even if those voters may not be informed.

  7. I’m working on getting the government grant!

    An interesting case is, of course, the Georgia Senate run-off election. In the general election, there was 65% turnout, but in the run-off, only 35%. If that missing 30% cared about the Senate election, why didn’t they vote?

  11. Mark Brooks,

    I do have a blog. Click on my name to sample it.

    But I wished to involve myself in Virginia politics so I sought out blogs that were more specific on this subject then were mine.

    Stupid me.

    Hey, quake at the involvement of my vote in recent elections. Although I am only one man with one vote (and a few voters in my family that listen to my opinion) I have recently been pretty successful in getting those I voted for elected.

    Now, up until you included guys like me in the conversation, just how successful were you? If you exclude me from the conversation I might have to swing the other way.

    Like drunks coming out of the bar, we must swing from one side to the next. I’ve been voting Democratic recently, but if liberal Dems get drunk on their success I can swing Republican to teach them a lesson.

    Reality (sometimes, not always) follows my vote. I think my vote is a better barometer then yours.

  13. Pingback: Sessoms’ strategist debunks “flyergate” | Bearing Drift :: Virginia Politics and Podcasts

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