Poverty in Virginia

The Commonwealth Institute and Voices for Virginia’s Children issued a report today (pdf) in which they warn that our worsening economic conditions will result in thousands more Virginians living in poverty.

From the press release:

Forecasting for the first time the impact of the current recession’s rising unemployment on the number of Virginians forced into poverty, The Commonwealth Institute and Voices for Virginia’s Children estimate that an additional 122,000 to 218,000 people will be living in poverty by year’s end. Among the hardest hit will be Virginia’s children with an additional 44,000 to 73,000 children living in poverty.

“Increases in unemployment lead to increases in poverty,” said Michael Cassidy, executive director of The Commonwealth Institute.  “This new information provides us a look around the corner to see what lies ahead for Virginia as the economy worsens.”

Using a model developed by the Washington D.C.-based think tank, The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and adjusting for unemployment trends in Virginia, the “Predicting Poverty in the Commonwealth” report forecasts the impact on poverty levels when unemployment reaches 8, 8.5 and 9 percent:

• Unemployment at 8 percent nationally: 122,000 to 169,000 additional Virginians in poverty
• Unemployment at 8.5 percent nationally: 140,000 to 195,000 additional Virginians in poverty
• Unemployment at 9 percent nationally: 159,000 to 218,000 additional Virginians in poverty

I participated in a telephone press conference today where the forecast was discussed. Although we might see some mitigation of these numbers due to the passage of the economic stimulus bill, those participating in the call indicated that most of that will not be felt until 2010, making 2009 a difficult year for a number of Virginia families.

One point discussed in the call related to the work-focused welfare system. Much of the safety net of the system relies on people holding jobs, and as jobs disappear, so do those benefits, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit.

While our legislators grapple with the difficulty of closing the budget gap, I hope they will consider the neediest among us and do what they can to keep the safety net intact.