In part one of three parts, UVA’s Larry Sabato takes a look at the upcoming governor’s races in 2009 and 2010. He gives a brief synopsis of the situation in Virginia:
Another chance for party change is in Virginia, where Republicans have already decided upon their gubernatorial nominee, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Democrats have a three-way primary between state Sen. Creigh Deeds, who lost to McDonnell four years ago by less than 400 votes; former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe; and former state Del. Brian Moran. There will be no primary run-off, so the winner could get a mere plurality. McAuliffe will almost certainly outspend his rivals, and that may be enough to buy a low-turnout primary, but his lack of experience in the Commonwealth’s politics troubles many. Most Democrats didn’t even know the native New Yorker lived in Virginia until he started running for the top job. The general election contest has not gelled to this point, but Democrats hope they can keep the strong Blue trend going in the New Dominion, while Republicans expect the usual off-year election snapback against the incumbent President (a consistent pattern in Virginia that stretches back to 1977). The incumbent Democratic Governor, Timothy Kaine, is also now the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, so he can be expected to pull out all the stops to prevent a severe personal embarrassment in his own state–which is how a Republican takeover in Virginia would be interpreted.
Sabato, a political insider, captured the essence of this race in this paragraph. The biggest threat to Democrats in November, though, will be Democrats themselves. The primary is already shaping up to be a rather nasty affair: witness the exchange yesterday between Moran and McAuliffe. That being the case, I have to wonder if there is any way for the Democrats to come together behind the winner after June 9. (After all, the blogosphere is still fighting the nearly three-year-old Miller versus Webb battle, not to mention Clinton v. Obama.)
The voters, though, are not nearly as engaged in this contest as they should be. Part of that is due to the lack of coverage by the MSM. The alternative media is going to have to step up and fill the void; otherwise, the candidate who spins his message the best – who may or may not be the best choice for Virginia – will win this thing.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I’ll come together no matter who we choose. I still think Bob McDonnell is going to be tough to beat regardless. Even if we didn’t have a contested primary, I think that would still be the case.
No doubt it’s going to be tough. McDonnell is a formidable opponent and with only two gubernatorial races this year, ours should attract national attention (ie, money).
Your Moran biasis is showing. If he was the frontrunner I bet your comments would change. I’m voting for Deeds at this point. Moran is way too far left and McAuliffe strikes me as a Romney (say whatever needs to be said to get elected with no idea how he would actually govern)
I’m confused. What bias is there in saying that the public is not engaged?
“Gelled”?
Popcorn, please.
I hope it is Jody’s, so good.
I am a Deeds supporter. I have been really alienated by some of the actions of Moran supporters in the blogosphere, specifically a few cases of out and out lying. And the mean spirited and false attacks last weekend against Lowell and Lee were way beyond the pale. I understand these actions were taken by a blogger, not by the campaign, but they have soured mt on Brian Moran.
I will have no problem opposing Bob Mcdonnell come the Fall. I will have a much harder time supporting Mr. Moran, and that makes me sad. I didn’t feel this way several months ago.
And just to be clear, liek you, Vivian, I supported Hillary Clinton in the preidential, but when President Obama beat her, I enthusiastically supported him, and as it turned out, I think we are all better off for the way it worked out, so I don’t think I’m a sore loser.
Don’t let a few bad apples spoil the whole bunch. There are a lot of Moran supporters who have said nothing negative about McAuliffe or his supporters. I happen to think one can support a candidate without tearing down the other guy. And I think I’ve done that on this blog, having supported Harris Miller over Jim Webb and Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.
Don’t take the blogs and the bloggers too seriously. And don’t blame the candidate for actions outside his control. There is a Creigh supporter out there who always takes things too far. I don’t blame Creigh for it and it has no effect on my opinion of him. (I actually like Creigh – he’s just too conservative for me.)
I think that is a very fair point, although I speculate on the extent to which this is out of the campaign’s control. I’ve heard that they are not unhappy about this turn of affairs.
Don’t take this blog seriously only if you agree w/ VJP’s view!
Well, you know I’m in the same position as Aznew in that I supported Hillary in the primary and then enthusiastically supported Obama in the general. I’ve never regretted it nor do I expect to ever regret it.
As for Brian Moran, I’ve known him for a long time, and I respect him greatly. I am saddened and puzzled by the negative tone of his campaign when it is responding to Terry McAuliffe.
I have also gotten very irritated with a couple of Virginia bloggers for their negative tone and lack of respect for those who disagree with them (I suspect that Aznew and I are referring to the same people).
All that said, I am still undecided simply because I think any of the three candidates would bring real value to the governor’s office and would serve Virginia well. Whoever wins will have my enthuisastic support in November.
In 2006, we had people openly say that if Miller won the primary, they wouldn’t support him. In 2008, we had people openly say that if Hillary won the primary, they wouldn’t support her.
I thought it was wrong then and I think it’s wrong now.
As a relative newcomer to Virginia politics, I don’t know Brian Moran at all. I met him once to exchange plesantries, and that is it. So, for me, what I see is what I know.
But I hear what Vivian is saying, also. And I tried to make the point that no matter what happens in this primary, all Democrats will come together to defeat Bob McDonnell — of this I’m pretty confident. For me, on a personal level, I hope it is in support of a candidate that I can really like — it need not be Creigh. I want to like Brian Moran, and I wish he would give more of a reason to do so, beyond position papers.
As a newcomer, I understand that there are things that have happened (and continue to happen) that you may not be aware of. That’s why I pointed out what the blogs have said/done in the past.
Have some of the Moran supporters gone over the top? You bet. This behavior seems to be typical of far too many online posters. Remember, though, that the online community represents a very, very small segment of the population. (To put it in perspective – the largest blogs in VA get about 1/10 the circulation of my daily newspaper! And The Virginian Pilot isn’t even the largest newspaper in the state!)
Brian Moran is a decent, honest, hardworking man and, as I’ve said before, his stances on the issues are closest to my own. That’s why I support him.
Do you Dems ever read back what you write. The Hypocrisy is spewing all over the page!
Last warning, rlewis. You can contribute to the conversation or leave. The next post that attacks will result in your being banned.
Moran’s biggest problem is Big Brother (Jim).
Yep. And some of us remember him when he was on Alexandria City Council. And we don’t think he’s changed a bit.
I think that Sen. Deeds is the Dems’ best potential candidate for Governor. They’ll do fine in NoVa (and probably HR) no matter whom they nominate. Deeds can undercut McDonnell in the rest of the state unlike Moran and McAuliffe.
That said, McAuliffe may well be the Sixty Million Dollar Candidate. That kind of money makes the race tougher to gauge.
You won’t care for this, Viv, but Moran looks like the worst choice to me – at least as far as winning the election.
I think you are right Vivian, no matter who any of us support, we, democrats end up hurting ourselves because we can’t come together after the battle to fight the war!
I would love for Creigh Deeds to be the nominee. I would vote for him in a second. I was about to vote for him last time until he voiced support for the tax hikes of the previous governor. Then I held my nose and voted for McDonnell. Look how close that race was. I now regret my decision.
You Democrats shouldn’t worry too much about McDonnell. There is total alienation going on in the RPV. See the current overthrow attempt of the standing RPV chair. McDonnell has weighed in against chairman Jeff Frederick and that just cost him the loyalty of Frederick backers.
It should also be considered that McDonnell was a champion for the HRTA and also supported legislation post Kelo vs. New London that did NOT reform eminent domain. Thankfully that excuse for reform failed and true reform was passed the next year. All of that is an attack on fiscal conservatives that prefer smaller government. It means Libertarians like myself that generally vote GOP, DON’T want to vote for him.
The fact that Bob McDonnell wanted to keep oral sex, even between married couples a felony, doesn’t help either. Thank goodness the US Supreme Court overturned the Texas law and thereby Virginia’s.
I know Deeds is too conservative for your tastes. Probably why I like the guy, I’m on the conservative side. If Deeds were the nominee, I’d definitely vote for him. At this point, I’ll write-in a name if Moran is the nominee. McAuliffe is an outsider and his history at the DNC doesn’t help. McAuliffe seems so insincere and salesmanish. Out of the three, he is by far the worst. God help me if I have to choose between McAuliffe and McDonnell. I so don’t want to choose between the lesser of two McEvils.
I plan to vote for Republicans Bolling and Cuccinelli. I’ll leave it to you to figure out why I won’t be voting for McDonnell.