By now everyone has seen the results of the latest Rasmussen poll on the Virginia governor’s race. The results aren’t pretty, although not unexpected. Republican candidate Bob McDonnell enjoys a 10 point lead over Brian Moran, the closest Democratic challenger. He leads Terry McAuliffe by 12 and Creigh Deeds by 15. A couple of points in the narrative I’d like to highlight:
For McAuliffe, the results are bound to be disappointing since he has raised nearly $5 million for the race and has far outspent his opponents to raise his name recognition in the state.
McAuliffe’s numbers against McDonnell have been fairly flat – going from 36% in the December poll, to 35% in the February poll, to 33% in this one. The spending he has done has had no effect. The Republicans with whom I’ve spoken are alternatively afraid and wishful of a McAuliffe candidacy: afraid because he has the ability to raise a lot of money (although the $80mil previously mentioned seems to not be forthcoming) and wishful because they believe it will draw a lot of out-of-state money for McDonnell.
Deeds, who has been frugal with his resources and spent much of the time since the last poll in the General Assembly, has stemmed the bleeding. From December to February, he went from 39% to 30%, the same share that he holds in this poll.
Moran has consistently been the closest to McDonnell. His 41% in December actually bested McDonnell, but his share also dropped off to 36% in February and further to 34% now.
Which brings me to the second point in the narrative (emphasis mine):
Virginia Democrats will pick their gubernatorial nominee in a June 9 primary and it is likely that the Democratic Primary competition is having an impact on the General Election polls. Each of the three Democratic candidates attracts a relatively low level of support from within their own party in the current polls. There are a correspondingly large number of Democrats who are undecided. This suggests that some Primary supporters of each Democrat are unwilling to admit they will vote for the Democratic nominee if their favored candidate is not selected.
A similar phenomenon was observed last year in the Democratic Presidential nomination contest. Many supporters of Hillary Clinton said during the primaries that they would not support Barack Obama against John McCain. Once Obama captured the nomination, he enjoyed a bounce in the polls.
That, I think, is the silver lining. Democrats will ultimately come together and support the nominee. But winning in November won’t be an easy task. History in Virginia is not on the side of the party of the president. Come June 10, I fully expect that the Democratic nominee will still trail McDonnell, although not by the margins he currently enjoys.
We have a lot of work in front of us. I intend to do my part to get our strongest candidate – Brian Moran – to win the nomination.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I think that we need to consider the track records of the various pollsters as well.
If I remember correctly, Rasmussen was not that good. It would be interesting to see them all side by side with trends.
I wonder if 538 has been looking at this race?
The last post at fivethirtyeight.com with keyword “virginia” is titled “Obama wins Virginia” and dated 11/4/2008. His last post about “rasmussen” was on 10/21. He’s been focusing on Tea Party turnout this week.
I agree Vivian. The last couple of statewide cycles we have trailed at this point in the race. It’s the November 3rd numbers that will matter.
I think we need to make out-of-state money illegal for state races, and out-of-district money illegal for local races.
That would make it very hard to ever have a challenger be successful, wouldn’t it?
This suggests that some Primary supporters of each Democrat are unwilling to admit they will vote for the Democratic nominee if their favored candidate is not selected.
This would seem to make Sen. Deeds the strongest candidate against McDonnell.
How so?