In 2007, the House of Delegates picked up four seats – two of them in Hampton Roads. And in 2007, the State Senate picked up four seats – again, two of them in Hampton Roads.
How did we pick up those four seats in 2007? I believe it was a combination of things. First, we had really good candidates. Second, we had extremely active caucus members. Brian Moran, as chair of the House Caucus, spent a tremendous amount of time in Hampton Roads. Creigh Deeds, although not Caucus chair, spent a tremendous amount of time here helping Senate candidates. The coordinated campaign – warts and all – did an excellent job on the ground, bringing in volunteers to help paid staff. Finally, the candidates and the caucuses raised significant amounts of money.
Reading through the various sources over the last few days one would think that the only goal this year is to win the governor’s mansion and that the only place that matters is Northern Virginia. I can only hope that I am misreading these early signs.
The announcement that DPVA Executive Director Levar Stoney was taking a leave of absence to be political director of Creigh Deeds’ campaign for governor was the first shoe to drop. Wedesday’s announcement that DPVA communications director Jared Leopold is also heading over to the Deeds campaign left me wondering who the heck will be running the DPVA through the fall. According to vpap, there are 68 69 contested House of Delegates races this fall. While it is arguable that each of these races is competitive, truth is that resources will be tied up fending off challengers. That makes the role of the DPVA even more critical.
The House Democratic Caucus does the bulk of its fundraising through the Commonwealth Victory Fund. As of 3/31, the PAC had a paltry $35,442 on hand. The caucus was a little better off, with $243, 022 on hand, but nowhere near the amounts they are going to need to help fund the races. Note that the second largest contributor to the Caucus has been Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, who contributed $483,000 in 2007. (He was actually the top contributor in 2007.) I don’t expect to see those kinds of numbers from him this year – he has a challenger. And that $100,000 from John Stryker in 2007? Forgetaboutit. It’s unlikely to happen this year.
None of this bodes well for Democrats gaining the six seats necessary to obtain the majority in the House of Delegates. And it seems that no one is even talking about that anymore. What’s at stake here? One word: redistricting. Without some gains in the House, we are staring at virtually the same districts as we have now for another ten years! Do you really think bipartisan redistricting is going to be implemented without Democrats at least gaining some House seats?
And then there is the emphasis on Northern Virginia.
Yeah, I know that NoVA represents a significant portion of the electorate. But let’s be real: they can’t do it alone. NoVA may turn out lots of votes, but they can’t pull the load without help from the rest of the state. Hampton Roads, historically, has come through time after time.
Within days of winning the nomination, we learned that Deeds is moving his headquarters to Northern Virginia. “Resources” was offered as the reason, not a completely invalid one but one which makes the argument that the Democratic ticket is regionally diverse less believable. Already AG candidate Steve Shannon is from NoVA, and LG candidate Jody Wagner seems to spend most of her time there, based on her tweets.
It is a constant refrain of residents outside of NoVA that they are ignored. I hear it from almost every corner of the state. Here’s what The Virginian-Pilot editorial board said last week:
Steve Shannon of Fairfax County has not distinguished himself during his short tenure in the House of Delegates, and he remains a stranger to voters outside his district. If he wants to be the next attorney general, he should start explaining now why he’s qualified for the job.
Hampton Roads is supposed to be a part of the golden crescent, yet the editorial board knows little of Shannon. Knowing the editorial board, I know they didn’t say this without justification.
And then there are the blogs. During the primary, all three candidates had bloggers’ dinners – in NoVA. Wednesday night, Deeds had a bloggers’ dinner – in NoVA.
Let me let you guys in on a little secret: Hampton Roads bloggers enjoy the support of the main stream media. That’s right: our blogs, in addition to reaching the very small number of blog readers out there, are included in The Virginian-Pilot as pundits. Right alongside folks from the likes of The New York Times and The Washington Post. Instead of reaching a couple of thousand visitors a day, when our posts are published in the Pilot, we reach about 200,000 households. Does The Washington Post include blog posts in the daily paper or have a whole section in the Sunday paper devoted to blog posts?
Two years ago, Hampton Roads Democrats delivered four seats. In 2009, we will defend our House seats and pick up a couple more. But it sure would be nice if we didn’t have to do it alone.
UPDATE: I see Mark has thoughts on this as well.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
good take, viv, we need help down here on the peninsula, for sure.
We need the house caucus to put more funds down here.
The House Caucus isn’t going to have much money. The biggest donors have races of their own.
There is real serious problems with what is going on with Stoney and Leopold leave their posts at the DPVA. They just left a big hole in leadership.
Are there not any other qualified applicants in VA that don’t already have important obligations to the DPVA?
Shouldn’t Ken Plum be picking up the slack with the House Races especially since he is the new chair of the House Caucus. Did he not endorse Terry McAuliffe in exchange for monetary assistance with these delegate elections?
I’m going to do as much as I can do to help the ticket. I’m afraid that we are going to have a real hard time getting everybody elected.
I agree completely. Although I must say, in response to your comment about McAuliffe, I will believe the money when I see the money.
Ken Plum is ineffective as House Caucus Chair. Evidently, he was picked for some reason other than his leadership prowess.
A big part of the leadership vacuum is the loss of Brian Moran. When he was House caucus leader, the DPVA and House Caucus had an aggressive presence in House special elections, from Kenny Alexander in 2002 to Albert Pollard in 2008. All of a sudden, when he resigned, there was no direct DPVA or caucus support for the election of Charniele Herring, Brian’s successor. (A number of House incumbents, including Ward Armstrong, made contributions to Herring, but that’s beside the point.) I’m leery of what this bodes for the fall elections.
I don’t know Plum – never met him. I do see, though, that he has a challenger. BTW – I see that vpap has updated the number of contested races to 69.
Exactly right!! If we dont have someone in there who focuses on Hampton Roads, we could very well lose someone like Joe Bouchard. Theres a number of competitive races down here. We definitely have the chance pick some up seats. I think Vivian would be a great asset for the DPVA!
viv,
Plum’s challenger doesn’t matter. No Republican is going to win that district.
The lack of leadership at from the caucus has been an ongoing problem for Democrats.
Virginia Democrats have not had a coherent message aside from “We’re not them,” this century. In that last few cycles “We’re not them,” has been good enough.
As Del. Watkins Abbitt used to say when he was still a Democrat, “the best thing the Virginia Democratic Party has going for it is the Virginia Republican Party.’
Steve – I disagree. The House Caucus provided significant leadership and it wasn’t just “we’re not them.” You don’t pick up all the seats the Dems have done (11) with no message.
While I understand that Plum’s challenger is not the strongest one, candidates have a way of taking (rightfully so, IMHO) every challenge seriously. So yes, it will tie up resources to defend that seat.
Once again labor gets overlooked. We knocked on thousands and thousands of doors and made thousands of phone calls for Bobby Mathieson, Joe Bouchard, John Miller, and Ralph Northam. I personally knocked on over 2000 doors. Labor also gave a great deal of money to the candidates in the races. Cmon Viv include us in this scenario sometimes or just ask the candidates them selves what we do.
I’m not ignoring labor, but unless I am mistaken, you guys work independently of (although in conjunction with) the party structure, which is what this article is referring to.
The Senate will continue to be that bastion of the Progressive Movement
Will the Senate caucus be donating any money to the House caucus to help with these races?
My understanding is that the coordinated campaign has targeted at least two campaigns here, Gary West 94th and Robin Abbott 93rd.
West has Jonas Courey(Northam campaign) and Pat Murphy (beat Marty Williams and helped John Miller win) on his team! Can’t beat that combo! I don’t know the Abbott team, but she’s done very well with fundraising.
No question that Labor is going to play a major role in both of those districts. Oder is so ripe for picking, he’s starting to smell! Hamilton is over-confident and could be bumped! Everyone just needs to calm down and start working and stop the chicken-little scenario’s!
Not sure about the southside, but CC has targeted two on the Peninsula. Ward Armstrong is in charge of the coordinated campaign not Deeds! I do not agree that there is a lack of focus or leadership in the caucus. And there certainly isn’t a lack of money. Its JUNE for God’s sakes, stop with the negativism. Leave that to the Republino’s.
I think you’ll see more pick-ups from Hampton roads this cycle. Hod will go to the Dems, if for no other reason, that the republino’s are so disorganized after that very public intra-battle over Jeff Frederick that alienated the grassroots folks. McDonnell, like a moron, aligned with Thomas and the country club republino’s and its going to cost him.
Plus McDonnell is trying to portray himself as a ‘centrist”! His Regent, Pat Robertson ties aren’t going to allow that to happen!
CC will come through, just have faith and stop worrying!
Sometimes I wish I could share all the inside information that I get. This article just scratches the surface of what is really going on.
Glad to know you are so optimistic – just where are those 6 seats going to come from?
One more thing – this comment from you
is simply not true. Try talking to the campaigns.
When has a campaign said, “oh we have plenty of money, no need for more”???
Its June, and considering how early it is in the cycle, it appears that everyone is on target for $300-K + by October. A lot of hand wringing and fretting here. While I don’t want to be attacked and mislabeled “Jingoistic” again, I do believe that there is a need to hunker down, and work hard. All the public ,”chicken little” does nothing to encourage or provide support. No one thought we’d take the Senate in 2007, yet we did. Some of you need to take your medications, others a dictionary, either way, the House will be Blue in 2009!
Nathan –
First of all, what is a republino? Is that a cross between a Republican and a floor covering?
Your overreaching confidence in the Combined Campaign is interesting. I wonder if you can tell us what your role has been in previous elections?
Ward Armstrong does not run the Combined Campaign, the campaign of the nominee for Governor does. In past years this has meant as little as providing signs for all three candidates and little else.
On what do you base your wild speculation that everything will be roses and candy for the Democrats in the House races? Any evidence? Any credible cites for us to look at?
In terms of starting to work and stopping what you perceive to be negativism, I would ask you, when did you start to work volunteering this election season? I started in December of 2008.
Your post is hard to read due to the jingoistic, happy-face mantra that pervades it. Without introspection and analysis, we will not win anything. There is a real danger here to not win the majority.
Thanks for trying.
Mark:
Its clear that no amount of explaining or “citing” sources would make you happy. You seem content in your negativism and I have found, that your attitude, like cancer, spreads through campaigns, and kills any candidates chances for winning. Just glad I don’t have someone like you on any campaign that I am working on. Oh, and I started right after the 2007 cycle working on this one. But as I said, nothing I could say, do or “cite” would change your self absorbed mantra of defeat!
Honestly if I have to explain “Republino’s”, it really isn’t worth the effort.
While I am sure you think you know the definition of “jingoism”, you clearly don’t, as anyone with a dictionary can attest. Not sure how my post, fits;
jin·go·ism (jĭng’gō-ĭz’əm)
n. Extreme nationalism characterized especially by a belligerent foreign policy; chauvinistic patriotism.
But I’m sure you can turn even a lack of understanding on your part into a negative for someone else. That you’re good at!