ICYMI: McDonnell 51, Deeds 47

2009 Gubernatorial Race, Creigh Deeds, Local, Politics, Virginia 1 Minute

Creigh DeedsThe story broke overnight Saturday: the latest Washington Post poll shows the gubernatorial race tightening, with Republican Bob McDonnell now leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by a mere four points. This is the third poll in the last few days (more on the others here) and this one carries a margin of error of +/- 3%.

I expect the numbers to continue to narrow. The poll showed that only 46% of the likely voters surveyed had heard a “great deal” or a “good amount” about the thesis. As this number grows, I think McDonnell’s numbers will fall.

The Post also had an article on two female focus groups, composed of women from across Northern Virginia ages 21-66. (I wish the pollsters had convened other focus groups across the state.) The thesis is a problem for all.

(Interestingly enough, I had the opportunity to talk to a Republican-leaning female friend yesterday. She hadn’t heard much about the thesis. When I gave her some of the information in it, she was quite surprised. While not willing to jump to Deeds -yet 😉 – she was no longer completely behind McDonnell.)

There will be a lot more polling as we get closer to November 3.  PPP has already announced that they are putting their next poll in the field this weekend.

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7 thoughts on “ICYMI: McDonnell 51, Deeds 47”

  1. At Denbigh Days on Saturday, our committee had a booth set up. I talked to many young women, both students and professionals. When we discussed the thesis, everyone took a Creigh Deeds sign and sticker.
    They were appalled that someone would actually write that working women are a detriment to society IN 1989!!!!!
    Backwards Bob should be ashamed. Now he is hiding behind his three daughters!! Sad state of affairs.

  2. I don’t expect the McDonnell campaign will be letting up as we come to the close of this election cycle. However, even with a closing of the gap, he still holds above 50% in the polls. Democrats appear to be energized (not for Deeds, but rather against McDonnell), but best I can tell, it doesn’t look like McDonnell lost any of his supporters. Perhaps if Deeds and his supporters can actually comes up with a message about why people should vote for him (rather than against McDonnell), he might truly make this a race again, but unless he can actually cut into McDonnell’s voters, rather than just take the undecideds who are not enough to change the result of the election, the outcome of this election may already be known.

    1. I don’t think that analysis works. I think the default-to-party vote favor remains very much with the generic GOP candidate in VA. And probably will, for some time. For that reason, I think that the majority of a GOP candidate will, almost by definition, remain softer than that of a Dem candidate. Put another way, it’s McDonnell’s to lose, and Deeds’ to win. Fortunately, Deeds’ looks like he still has a shot at winning.

      1. I’m sorry, but I must have missed the poll that put Creigh Deeds ahead, at any point in this race.

        I am as skeptical of the polls as anyone, but Bob McDonnell has seen no statistical losses in any of them. When I see him sink below 50% and lose the lead to Deeds in more than a single poll, then and only then can we call this race Creigh Deeds’ to win.

        1. I think I was unclear, then. I was trying to say that McDonnell started off as something of a default winner, and that it was up to Deeds to overcome that.

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