Predictions on Pilot endorsements – part one

The Virginian-Pilot editorial board has been busier than a one-armed paper hanger over the last few weeks, interviewing candidates for possible endorsement. This year, trying to figure out who they will endorse has been a bit more difficult than in the past, for a couple of reasons.

First, the makeup of the board has changed. Longtime editorial page editor Dennis Hartig has retired, taking with him not only his wealth of knowledge about Virginia’s history, but also his sense of loyalty to some people. The former is a bad thing, the latter a good one. Also gone is Margaret Edds, whose knowledge and understanding of Virginia politics is legendary. In place of these, we have a younger, hipper board with fewer ties to the establishment.  I consider that a blessing, but some may see it as a curse.

The other thing that makes divining the board’s endorsements difficult is that they haven’t been nearly as transparent in who they are supporting. In the past, we’ve seen editorial after editorial that demonstrates their leanings. This year, not only have the editorials been fewer, when they have appeared, they have been mostly equal in bashing the candidates.

Despite this, I’ve seen no indication that the board will stray from its policy for endorsements:

• The Pilot is biased in favor of incumbents.
• A challenger has to answer why the incumbent should be fired and why s/he should be hired.

Where I see the leeway is in that second item. As the result, I think we might be in for a few surprises. Continue below the fold for my House predictions. Part two of this series will look at the statewide candidates. And part three will be local races.

21st district: Incumbent Bobby Mathieson

Two years ago, Democrat Bobby Mathieson garnered the endorsement of the Pilot over incumbent John Welch. While Republican challenger Ron Villenueva, a Virginia Beach City Council member, has mounted a serious campaign, I’ve not seen anything that would sway the board to endorse him.

80th district: Matthew James

Talk about an under-the-radar race! This is an open seat in a heavily Democratic district, formerly represented by now Judge Ken Melvin. Based on resume alone, I expect the Pilot to endorse James.

82nd district: Incumbent Bob Purkey

Bob Purkey’s position in the majority party as well as his wealth of knowledge of the operations of the General Assembly should be enough for the Pilot to endorse.  While Democrat Peter Schmidt has run a spirited campaign, it will end up being hard for the Pilot to endorse against the guy who chairs the House Finance Committee.

83rd district: Incumbent Joe Bouchard

The reasons for endorsing Democrat Joe Bouchard over Republican Chris Stolle haven’t changed in the two years since these two last met.

87th district: Incumbent Paula Miller

Two years ago, the Pilot refused to endorse anyone in this race. While there is a chance that could happen again, I just don’t see it. Although the board appears to not be a fan of Democrat Paula Miller, the Republican challenger, John Amiral, has not made a case for casting a vote in support of him.

89th district: Incumbent Kenny Alexander

This is probably the easiest endorsement the Pilot will have to write.

90th district: no one

Looking back to the board’s lack of endorsement in the 87th in 2007, I think this could be the no-endorsement race of the year. In fact, they could just change the names and use the same quote:

Disappointment in both Miller’s Howell’s past and in Giffin’s Call’s potential makes it hard for us to summon the conviction necessary to make a heartfelt recommendation in this race.

100th district: Lynwood Lewis

OK, so maybe there will be two easy endorsements 🙂

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Despite extensive coverage of the Phil Hamilton race on the news side of the Pilot, I don’t expect them to cross the water and make an endorsement here.

In 2007, I was 7 out of 8 on the competitive race endorsements, missing only the Miller/Giffin race. We’ll see soon enough how well I’ve read the editorial board this year.