2nd CD Republican primary: decisions, decisions

Tuesday is Election Day and here in Hampton Roads, the big question is who will win the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Congressman Glenn Nye and independent Ken Golden in November. There are six candidates and The Virginian Pilot has put together a nice voter guide to help with the decision. Primaries in Virginia are open to all registered voters so everyone gets to help choose the Republican nominee 😉

If you missed it, Sunday’s paper had “Closing Arguments” section in which the candidates – Ben Loyola, Ed Maulbeck, Bert Mizusawa, Scott Rigell, Jessica Sandlin and Scott Taylor – each attempted to make the case as to why you should vote for them. All of the statements were well written, and, combined with the voter guide, demonstrate the differences between the candidates.

Living in the 2nd, it’s been interesting to watch this primary unfold. Obviously, I’m not on the contact list for most of the campaigns. What I know of Loyola, Maulbeck and Mizusawa is what I’ve been able to gather from sources available to just about anyone. I’ve run into Taylor at a couple of events, and, of course, I interviewed Sandlin.  I met Rigell a while ago and his campaign is the only one I’ve personally been contacted by: I’ve gotten several robocalls and one live call. None of the campaigns have sent me any literature.

Although this is an open primary – and I firmly believe in open primaries – I haven’t decided if I am going to vote. Yes, I’ve voted in a Republican primary before – for John McCain in 2000, because I didn’t want George Bush – and certainly when I ran for office myself I urged Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary. This time, though, is different.

While November is still a long ways off, and a lot can happen between now and then, I think the race in the fall will be a tough one, regardless of who is the Republican nominee. So the question is not a protest vote, as it was for me in 2000. Nor is it which of the candidates is the weakest, because truthfully, I fully expect the Republican Party to rally behind him or her and to make every effort to shore up whatever weaknesses the candidate has – short of the proverbial dead girl/live boy thing. No, the question ends up being which of the candidates would I rather have in Congress, representing me, should s/he win in November.

Oh yeah – and can that candidate win Tuesday.

No doubt a lot of folks think Rigell has this thing sewn up. And a couple of weeks ago, I’d have agreed. Now I’m not so sure. In fact, I think one of two things happens: either it’s Rigell by a landslide – in which case, my vote won’t matter – or it’s going to be very, very close. I just don’t see anything in the middle happening here.  I’m not buying any of the polls because, just like last June’s gubernatorial primary, no one knows who is going to turn out. It’s been a long time since there was a Republican primary in the 2nd CD, so there is virtually nothing historical to look at.  Sure, hard core Republicans will vote. But what about the independents? And the Democrats? What percentage will they make up in those who vote? It’s anybody’s guess.

As the frontrunner, Rigell has taken a lot of hits from his opponents and some of those hits have stung. How much of an effect it will have will have to wait until after the polls close. Rigell, for the most part, has stayed above the fray (although he did finally address on his website the elephant in the room). If the race is close, I think the three bunched at the top will be Rigell, Loyola and Mizusawa – and they could finish in any order. Truthfully, the three of them are pretty interchangeable, so again, my vote wouldn’t matter.

I think I’ve just talked myself into staying home.