We are less than 100 days to November 2 and the race in the 2nd Congressional District is well underway.
After winning the Republican nomination last month, Scott Rigell found himself a little short on cash. As of June 30, Rigell had a mere $227,000 on hand while incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye had $1.26 million. Through June 30, Rigell had pumped $923,000 into his campaign. Just a couple of days after the Pilot story, he dumped another $500,000 in. Independent candidate Kenny Golden had about $1,300 on hand as of June 30. I’m guessing TV ads can’t be too far off.
Unlike last cycle, one thing we’re likely not to see are debates. Nye would like to include Golden in the debates but Rigell’s camp is balking, saying that they want Golden to demonstrate “that he has the support of 15 percent of voters as determined by three independent polls.” That ain’t gonna happen. So either we’ll see some debates with just Golden and Nye, or we won’t see any debates at all. I’m betting on the latter.
In the meantime, Nye continues to serve in Congress and make moves to separate himself from the Democratic label. A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he voted against the budget and against cap-and-trade in 2009, against health care earlier this year, and just last week, against the extension of unemployment benefits. It is no wonder, then, that his website and emails make no reference to his party affiliation; in fact, the latest emails carry the tagline “An independent voice for us.”
Rigell has trouble with moderate Republicans, Nye has trouble with liberal Democrats, and Golden is hoping there are enough disaffected members of both parties for him to squeeze out a win. The fall should be interesting.
UPDATE: I’ve been informed that the Rigell camp now wants Golden to show 15% support in five polls, not three. Wow. Will there even be five independent polls on this race between now and November?
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
Great analysis Vivian! One again you are right on the money except for just one thing– Rigell has less trouble with Repubs than Nye has with Dems. Reasoning is that republicans will not support Mr. Nye or Kenny Golden- they are just too liberal and a vote for Nye is a vote for Pelosi (which in the fall you will see be an issue Rigell will raise). Also, given the fact that Nye will not be able to replicate the same turnout as 2008 and also his race is the biggest on the ballot. In 2009, Joe Bouchard and Bobby Mathieson were swept out of office as well as Paula Miller having a strong challenge. Republicans will vote and they will vote for Rigell, Nye will not get the Dems that he needs to win this election. Maybe he can use his huge warchest to bring down Rigell, but as it looks I just don’t see much hope for me. He has not made himself known and he has such a low profile in the district I just cannot see him winning.
I am a Dem. leaning Independent. I will be voting for Scott Rigell. Even though I have a lot in common with Glenn Nye, I think he waits until the last minute to vote for controversial issues like C&T and HCR. He waited until after the Dems secured enough votes to vote against. Come on, he has no backbone! I want someone decisive in there. What do you think about this Vivian?
I find it difficult to believe you lean towards Democrats and yet use Republican talking points about the race.
Five independent polls?
And I thought three was unrealistic.
Golden’s on the ballot; he should be allowed to debate. Anything else makes Rigell look a little questionable…
Two letters to the editor today (1, 2) disagree with you. I agree: Golden’s on the ballot, let him debate.
Let’s look at it from a different angle. Rather than the R,D,I scenario, what if it is played up as a Republican, Democrat, real Republican race. Also, as a mid-term election, if history proves true, turn out will be low. The second district is in the toss-up column and the national party organizations are going to pump in mucho moo-la either to maintain or gain majority control irrespective of their doggie’s ideological color.
One thing is sure; it is going to be a knock down, drag out, mudslinger. Anyone who can actual have a prediction on the fickle voters of the second district must have one heck of a crystal ball. This this juncture, this thing can go any which way.
Low as compared to what? 2008? Yes. But it’s really hard to know exactly what the turnout will be this year. In 2006, with a Senate race at the top, the turnout was better than 47% in VB. In 2002, again with a Senate race at the top, the turnout was almost 38%. 1998 was the last time we had Congressional races at the top of the ballot – and the districts looked different back then.
Plus, we have VB council races on the ballot. That should help with turnout.
I agree: this race can go either way. There is no clear winner at this point.
Corrected. Perhaps the VB Council may raise voter turnout if a controversial issue, such as whether or not to have a light rail referendum becomes a candidate issue. However as far as national elections, mid-term turnout is lower than Presidential years.
Lower, I agree. But not low. Low to me is in the teens.
The council races, if the candidates are doing their part, should help drive up the turnout.
republican talking points? You and I both know these are not talking points. With Obama not on the ballot how is Glenn Nye going to reel in key demographics? Please explain to me how Glenn Nye is going to generate all of this enthusiasm. If you take a look at *when* Glenn Nye makes decisions and votes in addition to just *how* maybe you will see what I am seeing.
That’s not what I was referring to. It was the “a vote for Nye is a vote for Pelosi” stuff. That is straight out of the Republican playbook. No Dem or leaning Dem is going to say that.
Bobby Mathieson lost by 14 votes, hardly a sweep. Paula Miller had a “strong challenger?” Please. I live in the 87th. I’d not call that challenger “strong” by any means.
So yes, those are Republican talking points.
I was saying that Repubs are not going to vote for Nye because they know it will be a vote for Pelosi to control the house. My point is that this is something that Rigell will use, not that I am going to use. I think the fact that the Dems felt it necessary to pour thousands into Miller’s campaign kind of make it a stiff challenge, it was money that could have been used elsewhere.
I wonder if Rigell will play by the same rules he insists on for Golden.
Rigell should be excluded from debates until he shows at least 15% in 5 independent polls.
Always enjoy reading your stuff, Vivian. I agree this is a tough race, for anyone running.